It is back to full-field events with a cut at the halfway stage this week, following the two invitational events that have taken place on the PGA Tour.
Denny McCarthy headlines the field, with other notable players lining up including Seamus Power, Thomas Detry, and Aaron Rai.
Port Royal is almost like having two golf courses in one. The clubhouse, positioned on the course’s highest point, acts as a separating point between most of the front nine and the back nine. As the players head away from the coast, their tee shot off the first puts them down a sharp elevation shift.
Many of the holes are initially guarded by trees, giving the impression of being on a tropical inland golf course, however, that soon changes, and as the players progress up the 9th hole, they will begin to appreciate what a unique piece of property they are on.
The remainder of the circuit features stunning views of Bermuda’s light-blue ocean and more breezy conditions facing the players. The forecast for the weekend play is quite breezy and that could have a big factor in deciding the winner of this event. You should certainly consider players who can adapt in these conditions as it could be key come Sunday.
The course does a great job of testing decision-making. Robert Trent Jones first designed the course in 1970, and in 2009 it was renovated by Robert Rulewich as part of a $16 million project. A short course by modern-day standards but don’t let that trick you into thinking this is a pushover for the players this week especially if the wind blows as previously mentioned.
There are bunkers staggered in such a way on practically every par 4 or par 5 hole that it will make the players reconsider their club choices. There are numerous landing places surrounded by bunkers, ready to catch any inaccurate tee shots and it is going to be a game of patience and precision this week.
Simply said, Port Royal is one of the most visually magnificent courses you will see on your screens this year, and how demanding it will be will pretty much dependent on how hard the wind blows.
Event & Course Details
- Course: Port Royal Golf Club
- Location: Southampton, Bermuda
- Date: Oct. 27-30, 2022
- Par: 71/ Yardage 6,842
- Purse: $6.5 Million / Winner $1.2 million
- Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
- Greens: Bermudagrass
- Past Winner: Lucas Hebert
Key Skill Sets Required
SG T2G – As ever on courses with limited data to reflect upon let’s start the analysis with T2G performance over the last 24 to 36 rounds. In what’s expected to be a low-scoring event you may want players onside who are showing confidence with every club in the bag, and there’s no way better way to identify this than T2G performance over recent times.
SG Driving Accuracy – Looking at the limited data we have at our disposal, driving accuracy seems to be of significant importance and the winners here have consistently hit fairways throughout the course of the week and setting up plenty of birdie opportunities with approach shots from the short stuff.
SG Approach – Considering we have very little data to analyse this week it makes sense to make this a key component of your research. You should be considering players who have proven over the last 24 to 36 rounds that the iron game is in tip-top shape.
Par 4 Scoring 350-400 – It makes sense to consider Par 4 scoring, especially from 350-400 yards where there are six holes of this type to contend with each day. Most holes will fall into this category, and you will want players on side with a proven track record of dominating the short Par 4’s in what may be expected to be a low-scoring test.
Birdie Or Better – In a low-scoring event with a low-quality field it’s worth considering players who can produce plenty of birdies and can produce a round of 63 or better. This allows for an average round to follow or proceed and still be in contention for the title. In these events, you want players onside who play aggressive and attacking golf.
Putting – Putting will always be a critical factor in low scoring tests and you should be considering players with recent Bermuda grass putting stats in their favour along with a proven record of Bermuda grass putting performance stats to support this.
Best Outsiders
CT Pan 80/1
- Not in stella form but a PGA Tour winner and an Olympic medal holder and not many teeing it up this week can boast this.
- Ranks in the top 10 for Fairways Gained over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked 12th for SG T2G Over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked 14th SG Approach play form this field over the past 50 rounds on tours.
Brandon WU 40/1
- Ball striking and shot shaping and going low will be the order of the day this week and he has that in his locker.
- Ranked 3rd SG Off The Tee over the past 50 rounds on tour from this field.
- Ranked 9th PAR 4 scoring over the past 50 round son tour from this field.
- Ranked 4th SG Par scoring on holes of 350-400 yards in length, we have 6 each day over this key distance.
- Gains strokes on the Bermuda grain putting surfaces consistently and lots to like this week.
Sam Ryder 60/1
- Gained strokes with his approach play in 6 of his last 7 events and iron play will be critical this week.
- Gained strokes putting in 6 of his last 7 events, and Bermuda is his preferred putting surface.
- Ranks in the top 25% for Par 3 and Par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour.
- Ranked in the top 10 of the overall model for assessment for the week.
Best Outright Picks
Denny McCarthy 16/1
- A course that rewards accurate driving should play to his strengths.
- Ranked 3rd for SG PAR 3 performance over the last 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked 3rd SG PAR 4 scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked 2nd for SG PAR 4 scoring on holes ranging from 350-400 yards in length, we have 6 of those each day this week.
- The BEST putter in this field, in a weak field event on a course that should suit the fact he’s the number 1 putter is a huge bonus. Quite excited by his chances this week.
Aaron Rai 25/1
- A highly motivated player on our team this week. Aaron will be doing all he can to sneak into the Ryder Cup Team in 2023.
- A course that on paper suits his game perfectly, he is one of the best on tour off the tee for accuracy, something I believe to be important this week.
- Ranked 1st for Good Drives gained over the past 50 rounds on tour from this field.
- Ranked 5th SG T2G over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked in the top 10 SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds.
- The one concern is his putting on the Bermuda surfaces.
Alex Smalley 30/1
- A player who hits it well with every club in the bag and can make a push this week for the title.
- Ranked in the top 10 for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked in the top 20 for SG T2G Performance over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked in the top 10 for SG PAR 4 Scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Gains strokes on the Bermuda grain putting surfaces he encounters this week.
Chesson Hadley 60/1
- Having backed Chesson at huge odds this year in tougher events than this, it’s a bet one just must make this week – we all have those players hey!
- Gained strokes with his approach play in each of his last 6 events, which sets up well for this week.
- Ranked in the top 20 for SGT2G Over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked 3rd for PAR 3 scoring over the past 50 rounds, giving insight into his iron play and putting stroke over the past 6 month.
- Gained strokes putting in 8 of his last 10 events, his preferred surface is the Bermuda grain he encounters this week.
Top 20 picks this week
Sam Ryder 5/2
- Strengths as highlighted above
Callum Tarren 5/2
- 2 Top 10 finishes in his last 9 starts worldwide and they have come in much stronger fields than he faces this week.
- Ranked 3rd for PAR 4 scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Ranked 11th for Birdies made over the past 50 rounds on tour and going low will be important this week.
- Ranked in the top 20 for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour.
- Gained strokes putting in 7 of his last 9 events worldwide.
