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Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Cadence Bank Houston Open Golf Championship – Event Overview

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Memorial Park Golf Course, which opened in 1936 and is located near downtown Houston. It is a municipal course and last year, Tom Doak remodelled the course with Brooks Koepka’s aid. This week’s event will be a Par 70 course with a total length of over 7,400 yards. With Brooks’ influence on the redesign, you can be sure it will be a demanding and challenging ball-striking test.

The revised course includes three Par 5s and five Par 3s, with several of the latter stretching out to over 200 yards. There are numerous Par 4s that are between 450 and 500 yards long. One of the course’s distinguishing features is the lack of bunkers that really come into action; instead, the course has minimal amounts of water throughout, as well as challenging slopes and run-off areas, particularly on and around the greens. Each and every club in the bag will be put to work this week.

This week, the golfers will need to be precise with their approaches and have a strong around-the-green game to get up and down on these tough Bermuda greens. Long hitters should be able to take advantage of several of the Par 5s and the shorter Par 4s that will be in play this week. The ability to hit approaches well from the 175-225 yard range will also be important this week, with numerous Par 3s going over 200 yards.

Overall this week you may look for players who can play big boy golf courses well. When looking at the leaderboard last year all of the players at the top stood out in the ball striking statistics and this isn’t a course for finesse and precision but more out and out T2G play.

And so, who will lift that trophy come Sunday evening?

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Event & Course details

  • Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
  • Location: Houston, TX
  • Date: Nov. 11-14, 2022
  • Par: 70 / 7,412 yards
  • Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass
  • Greens: Bermudagrass
  • Purse: $8.4 Million / Winner $1.4 Million
  • Past Winner: Jason Kokrak

Key Skill Sets Required

Driving Distance – A long and demanding course off the tee box. Plenty of Par 4 ‘s over 450 yards and the addition of 3 long Par 5’s. All of this means that the ‘big boy’ players off the tee box this week could likely come to the fore. It will be no place for the faint hearted.

SG Off The Tee – Driving will be of significant importance and therefore you may wish to pay particular attention to those players who thrive off the tee box.

SG T2G – On a super demanding layout, it makes sense to look at recent strokes gained T2G performance. Looking at the leaderboard from last year shows that this is a real ball striking test and the world’s most adept players from tee to green rise to the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening. It is reasonable to expect a similar story in 2022.

Proximity to hole from 175 Yards + – This is a tough and demanding track and there will be a significant amount of shots from 175 yards or greater this week. Proximity to the hole from 175 to 225 yards out will be key and there will be a higher volume of shots from this distance than the average week on tour.

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Par 3 Scoring efficiency – There are 5 par 3 holes this week and some will play long at over 200 yards. It, therefore, makes sense to pay particular attention to par 3 scoring. It will also make sense to pay attention to those players who have performed well on par-3 holes over 175 yards in length.

Best Outsiders

1. Sabastian Munoz 66/1

  • A player who has the ability to go super low at any given time.
  • A previous winner of this event in 2019.
  • Ranked in the top 15 for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour from this field.
  • Ranked in the top 15 SG T2G over the past 50 rounds on tour from this field.
  • Ranked in the top 5 for SG Par 4 scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour and this will be crucial this week.

2. Alex Smalley 66/1

  • A long driver of the ball whose game should suit the test that lay ahead this week.
  • A previous top-20 finish at this event shows his liking for the course and its set-up.
  • Ranked in the top 20 for SG Off The Tee over the past 50 rounds.
  • Ranked in the top 10 for proximity to the hole from 200 + yards.
  • Gains strokes vs the field putting on the Bermudagrass that he will face this week.

3. Lee Hodges 70/1

  • A player who arrives in solid form with a top 10 finish two weeks ago at the CJ cup.
  • Gained strokes with his approach play over the field average in each of his last 8 events, showing his iron game is sweet right now.
  • Gained strokes Off The Tee vs the field in each of his last 6 events.
  • Ranks in the top 10 SG Approach play over the past 36 rounds on tour
  • Ranked in the top 10 Proximity to the hole from 200+ yards.

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Best Outright Picks

1. Denny McCarthy 33/1

  • Initially, it appears that this course is not one he would thrive on, however, he has a 9th and 11th placed finish to his name here.
  • His iron play has remained solid and he has gained strokes with approach play in each of his last 4 events.
  • Gained strokes T2G vs the field in each of the last 6 events.
  • Gained strokes Off The Tee in each of his last 3 events.
  • One of the best putters in this field and putts well on the Bermudagrass that he faces this week.
  • A player that could be overlooked this week given the bias towards the longer-hitting players and his price could be fair in a field of this quality.

2. Maverick McNealy 22/1

  • His 3rd visit to the track and each time he has finished in the top 20.
  • 4 top 20 finishes in a row on less than ideal courses show his game is picking up right now.
  • Ranks in the top 10 for SG Off The Tee over the past 24 rounds on a course less than 7,200 yards.
  • Ranked in the top 20 for SG Short Game over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • Lots to like from a player in real consistent form.

3. Davis Riley 33/1

  • A player who arrives in good form with a tied 21st finish last week.
  • 2 top 10 finishes at this event in the past.
  • Ranked in the top 20 for SG Approach play over the past 50 rounds on tour.
  • Ranked in the top 20 for SG T2G Performance over the past 50 rounds on tour.
  • Ranked in the top 20 for SG Off The Tee Scoring over the past 50 rounds on tour.
  • Off The Tee, T2G and Approach play are 3 key metrics this week and Davis ticks the boxes.

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4. Jason Day 22/1

  • It’s another week in the portfolio for Jason. A solid finish last week following a poor 1st round and he fought back well over the following 3 days.
  • There have been some solid signs recently; 8th at Shriners & 11th at the CJ Cup and tied 21st last week.
  • He still has one of the best short games around and he is ranked in the top 5 for both SG Around the Green and Short Game. This will likely play a part on a track like he faces this week.
  • Gained Strokes with his approach play in each of his last 7 events and the last time he did that was in 2020.
  • Gained strokes T2G in each of his last 7 events.

Top 20 picks this week

1. Jason Day 6/5

  • Key features as above

2. Lee Hodges 13/5

  • Key features as outlined earlier

First Round Leader

1. Sebastian Munoz 60/1

2. Lee Hodges 70/1

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