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Friday, April 19, 2024

Cheltenham Festival Day One 14/03/2023 – preview stats and suggested bets

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Cheltenham Festival Day One – Tuesday 14th March

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The Cheltenham festival kicks off in style with Champion Day and no less than four Grade 1 races.

  • 1:30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
  • 2:10 – Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
  • 2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
  • 3:30 – Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
  • 4:10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1)
  • 4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Premier Handicap)
  • 5:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

1:30pm – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

2m½f (2m87y) Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

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Facile Vega has spent most of the season as a short-priced favourite for this race, but his disappointing run at the Dublin Racing Festival has thrown the race open.

There were excuses for his poor display and Paul Townend is unlikely to ride him so aggressively again, but it would be a brave punt to assume that the Leopardstown race hasn’t left its mark on him. Marine Nationale is unbeaten over hurdles and his win in the Royal Bond before Christmas makes him a worthy challenger. Il Etait Temps picked up the pieces in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice hurdle and if he can reproduce that effort, he should go close, but there is another horse in the Mullins yard who has perhaps been overlooked.

DARK RAVEN – 25/1

cheltenham festival day one 14/03/2023 preview stats and suggested bets novibet(1)
Dark Raven

A winner of 2 Bumper races, DARK RAVEN made a promising start to life over hurdles by winning his maiden at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, beating Doctor Bravo by 3-lengths.

The race has worked out reasonably well as a piece of form and although he has work to do with the principles, his 3rd placed finish behind Il Etait Temps at the Dublin Racing Festival was perhaps better than the bare result given the quiet ride that he was given. Connections have chosen to come here rather than remain at home for a softer target and after just 2 starts over hurdles, he will be entitled to improve. He is likely to get a quiet ride from Daryl Jacob, which should suit an each-way bet in a race where there is almost certainly going to be a fast early tempo.

2:10pm – Arkle Chase

2m (1m7f199y) Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

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Far too much has been made of the performance of Jonbon in the Kingmaker at Warwick.

In time it will prove beneficial too him that he actually had a race with Calico and was forced to dig deep to get back on terms. He will have learnt more from that than if he had been allowed to canter round in his own time, but having said that, he is going to need to step up significantly when he gets to Cheltenham. El Fabiolo produced a much more convincing display when winning the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival and he quickly moved himself to the top of the pecking order with that performance. Dysart Dynamo is also likely to run for the Willie Mullins team, he should improve on better ground and if nothing else he will ensure that there is a strong gallop.

SAINT ROI – 8/1

cheltenham festival day one 14/03/2023 preview stats and suggested bets novibet(4)
Saint Roi

Jonbon or El Fabiolo may prove to be too good for this field, but the value has gone in both of their prices so there is an each-way angle into this race with SAINT ROI.

A County hurdle winner, he was the best of these over timber and after winning at Leopardstown over Christmas on his 2nd start over fences, he was pitched into Grade 1 company in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Things didn’t go to plan after he unseated at the 5th, but he remains open to improvement and aside from the head of the market, there is a significant lack of depth to this race which makes him an interesting each-way bet. With Dysart Dynamo set to lead the other 2, this should develop into a real test, and he could pick up the pieces in the closing stages.

3:30pm – Champion Hurdle

2m½f (2m87y) Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

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cheltenham festival day one 14/03/2023 preview stats and suggested bets novibet(5)

Constitution Hill is going to win. Didn’t take a genius to work that out because he has been a short-priced favourite since romping to success in the Supreme a year ago.

His form is very hard to doubt, especially when you consider that he gave Epatante a combined 29-length beating in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, even though she is in great form as she showed recently at Doncaster. State Man is the only conceivable challenger and is clearly the best of the Irish, but his workmanlike wins at Leopardstown over Vauban, who has struggled to make the step up to open company and Honeysuckle, who isn’t the horse she was, leaves him with a lot to find. So where is the value in this race?

ZANAHIYR – 100/1

cheltenham festival day one 14/03/2023 preview stats and suggested bets novibet(2)
Zanahiyr

Although he was subsequently disqualified for a banned substance, Zanahiyr did finish 3rd in last year’s renewal behind Honeysuckle and the investigations have concluded that was an accident and so we can take the form on merit.

This season he has been tried up in trip, but with that experiment not really working he dropped back to 2-miles and produced his best performance of the season so far in the Irish Champion hurdle. Although he finished last of 5, he was only beaten by 8-lengths and kept on well in the closing stages. That race was run at a muddling pace and became a sprint from the 2nd last, the point at which he was outpaced before keeping on, but it is unlikely to be the same scenario in March. His price reflects the fact that he is very unlikely to trouble Constitution Hill, but he is likely to be ridden to place rather than win and that makes his appealing as an Each-Way bet.

With Vauban and State Man likely to take on the favourite at some point and both Honeysuckle and Epatante running in the Mares race instead, there is a space for a horse to be ridden for a place and that could well be Zanahiyr.

4:10pm Mares’ Hurdle

2m4f (2m3f200y) Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

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*Prices subject to fluctuation.

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