Ian Machado Garry vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Preview
Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov clash on December 7th in welterweight action at UFC 310. Someone’s 0 has got to go as both undefeated fighters put their streaks on the line at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
Rakhmonov and Garry enter this fight knowing a shot at the 170lb title is probably on the line. Can Machado end Rakhmonov’s incredible streak of finishes, or will Nomad derail the hype train behind the young Irishman?
Ian Machado Garry vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Predictions
Fight outcome: Shavkat Rakhmonov via Submission
This is a fascinating fight. Both men enter undefeated with Ian Garry boasting eight wins in the UFC and Shavkat Rakhmonov six. Their meeting at the top of the welterweight division was bound to happen at some point, but it may have come too soon for Garry.
The 27-year-old, while undefeated, does not look like the finished product just yet. He just about defeated Geoff Neal by a split decision in February, with one judge scoring the fight in favour of the American. He fought again against Michael Venom Page in June and narrowly edged it. Garry is so close to being great, but he still has a way to go.
Rakhmonov is already there. He and Garry share two opponents in common, Neil Magny and Geoff Neal. Rakhmonov finished them both, adding to his already incredible record. This is a jump in competition for both fighters, but Shavkat is more experienced and his record tells us he is far more dangerous. Our MMA prediction is for Shavkat Rakhmonov to keep his zero and hand Machado the first defeat of his career.
Rakhmonov has torn through every opponent in his path since beginning his MMA career in 2014. The Kazakh fighter has never seen a decision, finishing all his 18 fights by submission or KO/TKO. Most of the victories have come via submission, accenting his excellent wrestling. He is formidable in his hunt for the takedown. Nomad will look to drag Garry down to the mat and take his back to sink in one of his patented chokes.
Garry does not have a wealth of experience against grapplers in the UFC, especially those of Rakhmonov’s ability. Neil Magny, a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu, is the strongest grappler he has fought. Rakhmonov’s combat sambo wrestling style is suffocating and unlike anything ‘The Future’ has stepped into the octagon against.
He will walk the Irishman down and push him back against the cage. From there, the Kazakh will look for takedowns in the clinch. Rakhmonov doesn’t have the best takedown accuracy at just 29%, but his style focuses on his formidability. Nomad will consistently go back to the well until he has his opponent down. Garry has never fought a fighter like Shavkat.
Garry has to be elusive in this fight and has the tools to do that. The Irishman’s striking is electric, with quick hands and sneaky kicks whether low or high. That is how he fought against Geoff Neal. He has to command respect from Shavkat to at least slow him down when coming forward. Whether he has the power to do that is up for debate. If Rakhmonov brings him down to the mat, history tells us it is just a matter of time before the fight is over.
We cannot underestimate the Future. Garry has a pristine record for a reason. His striking is immaculate, mixing quick jabs and hooks with kicks. His ability to mix up his striking is what can gain him an advantage in periods of this fight. Garry has to keep active to disrupt Rakhmanov’s rhythm and quell takedown openings.
Ian Machado Garry vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Fight Outcome
Shavkat Rakhmonov will push the pace in this fight, walking Ian Garry down towards the cage. He will use his reach advantage to prevent the Irishman from putting together combos. Garry’s takedown defence will have to be at the top of its game, as the Kazakh will be relentless in his hunt.
Rakhmonov will then look to take Garry’s back to finish the fight early with another choke. Expect Garry to fight defensively for much of this event. He will probably use low kicks to keep Rakhmonov on his toes, much like we saw in his bout with Neil Magny.
Garry’s ground game is nothing to be sniffed at, but it is simply not up to the same standard as Nomads. Garry’s pathway to victory will probably be weathering the storm of Shavkat’s takedowns and trying to drag him into the championship rounds. Rakhmonov has never gone beyond three rounds, while Garry has fought to decisions on seven occasions. If he can get into the fourth or fifth rounds while maintaining his striking speed, we could see the odds swing in his favour.
Ian Machado Garry vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Betting Tips
Fight Result
Shavkat Rakhmonov is a big odds-on favourite for this fight. He has more experience than Garry and is one of the scariest fighters in the welterweight division because of his submission ability and knockout power. However, for anyone betting on the UFC, it’s 1/4 to back the Kazakh.
Ian Garry is the underdog in this fight, but make no mistake: he is one of the most talented fighters in the division. Rakhmonov’s biggest test in this fight will be the Irishman’s speed and depth of striking. A win for Garry would not be the biggest upset and is far from out of the question. A bet on the Future is worth 11/4 with our online bookmaker.
Method of Victory
There is more value in backing the method of victory. Rakhmonov has finished every fight in his career by submission or KO/TKO. Garry’s chin is strong, and his jiu-jitsu is good, but it’s probably not good enough to keep Rakhmonov away from his neck. The Kazakh is on a run of three straight wins via chokes and will look to finish this one via submission, avoiding getting into striking exchanges with a fighter as talented as Garry. Bet on Rakhmonov to win via submission.
Undefeated 😤 🇰🇿 #UFC310
Shavkat Rakhmonov moved to 18-0 with this submission! pic.twitter.com/3lUfFHzUrQ
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) December 1, 2024
Round Total
Rakhmonov has never had a fight that has gone beyond three rounds, while Garry has fought for 15 minutes on six occasions and won one five-rounder. We are predicting a submission win for Rakhmonov, but it is not going to come easily. He struggled at times against Wonderboy and was a few seconds away from being dragged into a third round.
Garry will want to take his opponent into the latter rounds, where he can gain the advantage. Bet on over 2.5 rounds. If you are confident in Garry, bet on over 3.5 rounds. The MMA betting odds are 6/4 for the fourth round to start.
Ian Machado Garry vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Head-To-Head and Key Stats
It took Ian Garry barely two years to reach the UFC after making his MMA debut in 2019. Seven straight wins in Cage Warriors, where he won the welterweight championship, earned him a fight at UFC 268. The Future won via first-round knockout against Jordan Williams in his debut in the promotion. Garry has won seven further fights since and climbed to seventh in the 170lb rankings.
His three most recent fights have come against ranked competition. He fought Neil Magny to a lopsided decision at UFC 292. Garry dominated the Haitian Sensation with one judge awarding three 10-8 rounds in favour of the Future. He then fought Geoff Neal to a tight split decision before defeating British MMA icon Michael Venom Page via a unanimous decision in his most recent bout.
Garry stands at 6’3” with a 74” reach and boasts a perfect 15-0 record with seven KO/TKOs, one submission, and seven decisions. He is a black belt in judo and fights an exciting kickboxing style with quick kicks and punches.
Shavkat Rakhmonov first found success in the famed Russian promotion M-1 Global. Nomad trampled over the competition from his debut in 2014 up to his M-1 Global Welterweight Championship victory in 2019. He made his UFC debut two years later and has continued his dominance in the octagon. The Kazakh defeated experienced fighter Alex Oliveira by submission in his debut and has five wins since.
Like Garry, Rakhmonov also fought Magny and Neal in two of his previous three fights. Nomad submitted both in the second and third rounds, securing another two dominant wins. He met fan favourite Stephen Thompson in his most recent fight and won with the 10th submission of his career. Standing at 6’1”, Rakhmonov gives up three inches in height to Garry but boasts a three-inch reach advantage at 77”. He also has a perfect record of 18-0 but has an incredible finishing rate of 100%. Nomad has won 10 of his fights via submission and eight by KO/TKO.
