Connacht Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Preview
Connacht takes on Ulster for the 102nd time since 1946 this week. The two sides meet in the United Rugby Championship on Saturday, November 4 at 7:35 PM. While it’s still early in the season, the match between Connacht and Ulster is as important as ever. Both teams sit one point behind the league leaders, the Stormers, and one point ahead of fourth-place Edinburgh.
The game will take place in Galway at The Sportsground, a multi-purpose stadium with a capacity of over 8,000. Ulster is looking for a repeat of the narrow away victory they experienced last season. Whereas Connacht is aiming to improve on last year’s seventh-place finish in the league.
Connacht Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
The teams have met five times since the 2021-22 season. Of those five matches, Connacht has won twice, including the most recent fixture in the URC quarter-final. The game at the Ravenhill Stadium last May ended Ulster’s cup run early. The score was 10-15 to Connacht, with the only try of the game scored by Alan O’Connor for Ulster.
The last United Rugby Championship meeting between the two sides was on December 23, 2022. The high-scoring game saw Ulster take a commanding lead of 8-22 in the 72nd minute. It all changed when Ulster got a yellow card in the 77th minute. Connacht capitalised on the man advantage, scoring three tries to get within two points. However, the conversion sailed wide, and Ulster hung on for the win.
With only two games played this season, there is not a lot of data to indicate performance. Connacht has two wins this season, both by the exact scoreline. They beat the Ospreys 34-26 on October 21st and repeated the feat a week later against the Glasgow Warriors. Other than the cagey 10-15 victory against Ulster in the URC quarter-final, all of Connacht’s recent games have been high-scoring.
Ulster has also won their opening two games of the season. They started with a 36-40 win against Zebre on the opening day of the season. They dispatched the Bulls a week later with a scoreline of 26-19. Ulster was in fine form in the tail-end of last season, winning games by huge margins. Betting on Ulster to win and continue this form into a new season might not be a bad idea.
In the most recent meetings, when Connacht has been the home side, they have won as many times as they have lost. The most recent home leg saw a narrow defeat by two points to Ulster in 2023. The home match before that was played at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Where Connacht won by 15 points.
Before you go betting on the rugby, let’s look at the history between the two sides. Since 1946, the sides have met 101 times. Out of these matches, there have only been four draws and 21 victories to Connacht. On 76 occasions, Ulster won the day, and often by a considerable margin. However, since 2016, the longest winning streak either team has maintained in this fixture is three. It appears the Ulster dominance may have subsided in recent years.
Connacht Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Predictions
Looking at the Novibet markets, Connacht is the favourite for this event, with odds of 4/5. That means a €10 bet on Connacht to win will get you €18 if they are successful. The same size bet on Ulster to win will net you €21, which shows there is no real underdog in this fixture. The most unlikely result from this event is a draw, currently sitting at 18/1.
Connacht might be the current favourites at the bookies, but historically speaking, they are still the underdogs. Ulster has beaten Connacht 76 times in the last 77 years. That is over three times the number of victories Connacht has in the fixture. The last meeting between the two sides went the way of the Westerners, but they are only narrow favourites to win this weekend.
With a fixture that is in the balance like this, there are ways to mitigate risk. Live betting on the event will give you the time to see how each team is playing before you put your money on the line. Connacht has been in fine point-scoring form this season, but we are only two games in. It could be beneficial to wait until game day before you make a wager. Plus, new players who sign up for Novibet can use the welcome bonus when placing a bet on the rugby.
Given that there have only been four draws between the two sides in over 70 years, a draw seems an unlikely event. If you were to just look at the history, Ulster is an obvious choice, as they have dominated Connacht over the years. However, there seems to be somewhat of a tide turning in this fixture. Yes, Connacht is playing some fine rugby right now, but a big game like this separates the men from the boys.
Betting on Ulster to win is certainly the safest bet if you look at historical results between the two sides. Recent history has contributed towards Connacht becoming the favourites, but Ulster seems the more likely. Whatever happens, it is unlikely to be a blowout. Whoever wins will probably do it by a few points, but we think Ulster will maintain the bragging rights.
Connacht Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Betting Tips
Rugby betting is always unpredictable, as evenly matched teams could cancel each other out, or go blow for blow on the scoreboard. Yellow and red cards change games, and both teams had yellows in their most recent fixture. Ulster has already accumulated three yellow cards this season, with two coming in the first game against Zebre. Betting on Ulster to get a yellow card against Connacht is a risky bet, but it could prove to be rewarding.
If you only want to bet on the full-time result, both teams have been shaky at the back this season. Ulster conceded 36 points in the first game of the season and Connacht has conceded 26 points twice. It seems like this game will be a similar affair to the cup game the sides played in May, a cagey game separated by a few points. There is a chance that both sides will run riot, resulting in a points fest for fans to enjoy. Most likely, it will be a low-scoring match separated by one or two big moments.
In a game where the favourites are only slightly less paying than the underdogs, the match could go either way. If you wanted to bet on Ulster winning, it would most likely be a victory under seven points. The same feels likely for Connacht, as they have never won this fixture by a margin greater than 28 points. Ulster, however, won in the 2013-14 season by 46 points at home. Given how long ago that result was, it is far more likely to be a closely fought contest. The most recent games have been settled by five and two points, respectively.
Connacht Rugby Lineup
Head coach Andy Friend has good news and some bad. JJ Hanrahan is a doubt for the upcoming game after sustaining an injury in the match against Glasgow. Sean Jansen, Paul Boyle, Dave Heffernan, Shayne Bolton, and the new signing Santiago Cordero are all unavailable. However, there is some good news for the Connacht fans. Jack Carty and John Porch returned to full training and are available for the game against Ulster.
- Connacht Predicted Lineup: D. Buckley, D, Tierney-Martin, J. Aungier, N. Murray, J. Joyce, C, Prendergast, S. Hurley-Langton, J. Butler, C. Blade, J. Carty, D. Kilgallen, C. Forde, T. Farrell, B. Ralston, T, and O’Halloran.
Ulster Rugby Lineup
Ulster head coach Dan McFarland also has several injuries to contend with. Cormac Izuchukwu and Dave Ewers suffered head injuries in the last game against the Bulls. Plus, Kieran Treadwell and Tom O’Toole are not available for the upcoming game at Connacht. The players returning from the Rugby World Cup have three weeks off, so they will not be available for the next fixture.
- Ulster Predicted Lineup: A. Warwick, T. Stewart, T, O’Toole, A. O’Connor, K. Treadwell, M. Rea, D, McCann, N. Timoney, N. Doak, B. Burns, J, Stockdale, J, Postlewaite, J, Hume, R. Baloucoune, and W. Addison.
