Ireland Rugby vs Italy Rugby Preview
After starting the competition last week, Ireland vs Italy will cap off week two of the Six Nations. Italy will travel to the Aviva Stadium in Dublin for a 3:00 pm kick-off. On paper, Ireland is the clear favourite to walk away victorious and with a bonus point. However, don’t discredit the Italians just yet. They played well against the English and showed signs of having a bark-and-bite this tournament.
Even with our most optimistic hat on, it’s hard to predict anything other than a routine Irish win. However, there is a lot to consider besides who will win after 80 minutes. Ireland showed us all last week that they are even better than many expected. They bossed the opening exchanges and never looked like they could lose the match. Italy has a reputation as a pushover team, but that is certainly changing. They pushed back many times last week, and we could see a similar spirit this Sunday, February 11.
Ireland Rugby vs Italy Rugby Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Looking at the history of Ireland vs Italy is very one-sided. Since Italy joined the Six Nations, they have won one solitary game against the Irish. That victory took place in Rome in 2013. The Irish have dominated this fixture, winning 23 meetings between the two sides, including the last ten in a row. Ireland has also won their last 16 test matches on home soil, which makes this a very daunting trip for the Italians.
A lot of rugby fans already believe that this year’s Six Nations is done and dusted. That is because the opening fixture of this year’s competition was between the two favourites for the competition. Ireland visited Marseille to take on France, many considered as the title decider. Despite going off as 4-point underdogs, Ireland was dominant from start to finish. They secured a bonus point victory as they easily brushed their French counterparts aside by a final scoreline of 17-38.
France received a first-half red card, but anyone watching the game would know this didn’t affect things. The second yellow card to Paul Willemse woke the French side up for the final ten minutes of the half. Ireland was already up by 14 at this stage, but France got a try right at half-time to give them hope. However, this Irish side is tough. An early second-half try for Ireland made sure the French crowd could play no part in this fixture.
The day after, Italy welcomed an Owen Farrell-less England to the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. England were favourites, but many predicted there might be an upset on the cards. This certainly looked like it could be the case when Italy raced into a 10-0 lead in the first half. Anyone who placed a bet on Italy would have been daft not to cash out at the break. Especially since England brought the gap down to three points before half-time.
In the second half, history repeated itself for the Italians. Traditionally, Italy started fast against the English but could not sustain their effort for the full 80 minutes. That is exactly what happened here. England’s power took over and Italian ill-discipline meant that Geoge Ford could kick England out of touching distance. A last-gasp Italian try meant they secured a losing bonus point. Both teams left Rome relatively happy, as England prevailed on a scoreline of 24-27.
Ireland Rugby vs Italy Rugby Predictions
It’s time to get into some rugby predictions for Ireland vs Italy. It would be foolish to predict anything other than an Irish victory, and that is what we are going with. However, we think the Italians will offer a threat from now on. That opens up lots of different angles for our predictions and betting tips.
Six Nations betting is much easier in week two now that we have some recent form to base our rugby betting tips on. According to Opta’s statistics, Ireland and Italy were two of the most offensive-minded teams in week one of the competition. Ireland and Italy each made six line breaks in the opening round of this year’s Six Nations. The joint-most of the teams, along with Wales. Italy also had the highest tackle evasion rate of any team last time out with 22%.
Ireland and Italy were the two teams that went beyond the first receiver the most amount of times, with 32 and 30%, respectively. These stats lead us to believe that we will be in for a very open contest. Anyone placing rugby union wagers on this game should take that into account. We can see Ireland and Italy both trying to attack each other for the first 60 minutes, with Italy maybe keeping within three scores. However, given the likely pace of play, Ireland could end up comfortable winners over the fatigued Italians in the last quarter.
Ireland Rugby vs Italy Rugby Betting Tips
Whether it’s betting on Ireland or Italy in this match, you are going to have to face a very large handicap, likely the biggest one at this year’s Six Nations. On Novibet, Ireland is currently -33.5 favourites, which is a big handicap to cover considering Italy’s attacking prowess. However, Ireland has one of the best defences in the world. If anyone can stretch out 34 points over a fellow Six Nations team, it’s the Irish.
Online sports betting odds are always subject to change, however, we can’t see handicap numbers moving too much. Although we think Ireland will win with relative ease, this could be a game where they try out some new tactics and give bench players more game time. That makes covering the 33.5 spread a gigantic task. However, given Ireland’s strong squad, it could be a perfect bet to use your welcome bonus. The bookies think this will be a high-scoring game, with the total bet set at 60.5. That means both teams will need to score over or under 61 points for this wager to come true. This market is a fantastic alternative to an outright prediction.
Although we have gushed about Italy’s attack, without the last-minute try, they would have only scored 17 points at home. Plus, England has a much weaker defence than this Irish rugby side. Ireland vs Italy is traditionally one-sided and although Italy looks like they are improving, we think this is still too soon into Gonzalo Quesada’s reign for there to be a noticeable change.
Ireland’s resolute defence will keep the score under 60.5 points. For those that like live rugby wagers, betting on Ireland’s live handicap going into the last quarter could be a very profitable idea given Italy’s likelihood of tiring. Plus, the depth of the Irish bench compared to the Italians is absurd.
Ireland Rugby Team News and Lineup
Traditionally, Ireland rugby vs Italy is when Andy Farrell has changed his starting 15. He made seven changes last year and six the year before to the teams that had lined out the previous week. However, with no injuries yet reported from training, and a week off after this game, he might be likely to make fewer changes. We should see James Ryan come in and perhaps maybe one change in the front and back rows. Other than that, Farrell should field his strongest team from Kick-off.
- Ireland Predicted Lineup: Hugo Keenan, Calvin Nash, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe, Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park, Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Peter O’Mahony (c), Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan, Tadhg Furlong, Ronan Kelleher, and Andrew Porter.
Italy Rugby Team News and Lineup
The Italians are in no position to be making changes as they travel for what will probably be their toughest match of this year’s Six Nations. In terms of injury news, they too seem to have come away from their first-round match relatively unscathed. Sebastian Negri looks like the only player that featured who will miss the match against Ireland because of a rib injury. Viewers of the Six Nations Netflix documentary will feel let down since Negri was one of the featured stars. Other than this setback, we expect Italy to start the same team that lost by three points to England.
- Italy predicted lineup: Tommaso Allan, Lorenzo Pani, Juan Ignacio Brex, Tommaso Menoncello, Monty Ioane, Paolo Garbisi, Alessandro Garbisi, Lorenzo Cannone, Michele Lamaro (c), Alessandro Izekor, Federico Ruzza, Niccolò Cannone, Pietro Ceccarelli, Gianmarco Lucchesi, and Danilo Fischetti.
