Newmarket, Ascot and York
Welcome to Super Saturday! This is one of the busiest days on the Racing calendar and our team of experts have been busy looking through the action at Newmarket, York and Ascot to find their best value bets. Don’t forget to check out our YouTube and Social Media channels where you will find updates on our latest offers and our teams’ thoughts on the July Cup at 4:35. Here are the rest of our selections this Saturday.
3:25 Newmarket – Bet365 Superlative Stakes
GREAT TRUTH
With so many unexposed 2-year-olds heading to post it is never easy to compare their form. City of Troy is a real “talking” horse for Ballydoyle. A son of Justify, he knew his job on debut at the Curragh 4-weeks ago, travelling strongly and then putting the race to bed in a matter of strides when he was shaken up by Ryan Moore. He has been a popular choice in the Antepost markets for this race and is presumably one of the leading juveniles in the O’Brien yard this season. However, the bare figures for that race at the Curragh are not exceptional and so we are keen to take him on with Great Truth. It has been a quiet year for Charlie Appleby by his exceptionally high standard, but he has been operating at a 44% strike rate in the last 14-days which would suggest the yard is over the dip in form they had last month.
Despite being green and getting bumped at the 2-furlong pole, Great Truth won with any amount in hand on his debut at Leicester, where he pulled 5-lengths clear of the rest in the closing stages. He recorded a top speed figure of 84 when winning there, which is higher than the 77 recorded by City of Troy at the Curragh. The yard has a 34% strike rate on the July course in the last 5 seasons and at the prices, their son of Dubawi looks to be the value play in this race as he will surely improve having learnt a lot on his debut.
4:00 Newmarket – Bet 365 Bunbury Cup
GORAK
The Bunbury Cup is always an open race and this years’ is no exception. However, with a small stake in mind, we will take a chance on Gorak who went straight into our trackers after an unlucky run in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Although he finished 12th, that doesn’t tell the whole story as he had to make the running in his group on the near side, which was completely against the track bias on the day. Despite working very hard, he kept trying and effectively won his group with ease. The handicapper has dropped him 1lb to 104 after that but he proved at Ascot that he can run to that level. He was only beaten by 2-lengths in a Group 3 at Haydock the time before and if he runs to that level, he should go well here.
2:35 York – John Smith’s City Walls Stakes
REGIONAL
It is always difficult to make a confident selection in a sprint race at York until we know more about the draw bias. However, when looking through the recent form of the runners in this year’s race, there was one horse who stood above the rest. Regional. Although he failed to win a race in 2022, he has improved beyond all recognition in 2023, winning on his return over this course and distance at the Dante meeting in May and then taking his form to another level entirely when winning the Achilles Stakes at Haydock a month later. He got the better of Equilateral at Haydock, hitting the front at the 2-furlong pole and keeping on well in the last 100-yards to hold off the closers. That looks to be a strong piece of form in the context of this race and the top speed figure of 102 that he recorded that day puts him ahead of his rivals here. He does have a penalty to carry for that Haydock win and giving weight to the younger horses won’t be an easy task, but he is on an upward curve at present and looks capable of taking his form to a higher level if needed.
3:10 York – John Smith’s Cup Handicap
SPIRIT DANCER
With a full field going to post we don’t intend to go through every runner to assess their chances. Instead, we will focus on course form, which can be so important at York. Top of that list must be Spirit Dancer. He has run in 6 Handicaps on the Knavesmire and has never failed to finish in the first 5. He was 4th in this race last season on a mark of 92 and has run here 3 times since, winning last July before finishing 2nd to Phantom Flight a month later. He made a very pleasing return here in May when he chased home Marhaba the Champ and looks to have been saved for this race ever since. Richard Fahey has begun to hit form after a slower than usual start to the season and he has been operating at a 16% strike rate in the last 14-days. With the yard coming into form, everything points to a big run from Spirit Dancer, and he represents some excellent each-way value in a typically open John Smith’s Cup.
3:45 York – John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes
TASHKHAN
On paper, this race revolves around Hamish. He is 9lbs clear on the official ratings and has either won or finished 2nd in every race that he has contested in the last year. He won the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May on his return, staying on powerfully from the rear to get the better of Lone Eagle in the final furlong. He may well prove too good for this field, but he doesn’t make too much appeal at a short price and there is no doubt that he has produced his better form when there has been some juice in the ground. For that reason, we will take him on with Tashkhan.
Although he hasn’t won since 2021, he has been largely consistent, and you only need to go back to October to see that he finished 3rd in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran behind Kyprios. After 2 runs in the spring which came on ground that was probably softer than ideal, he has been given some time off and returns here in conditions that should be more to his liking. He has a good record at York, including when 5th in the Melrose in 2021 and with Brian Ellison amongst the winners in the last week, if he is going to return to the winners’ enclosure, this looks to be his best chance for some time.
2:20 Ascot – Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile
ALDAARY
There is very little between the principles on the official ratings and it looks to be a competitive renewal of this race on paper. Regal Reality and Jimi Hendrix arrive here in winning form and aren’t easily overlooked, but it is still hard to get away from the claims of Aldaary. He has won 6 of his 11 starts, including 3-times at Ascot, most notably the 2021 Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day and although he has missed a lot of time through injury, he showed enough at Newmarket 3-weeks ago to suggest that he retains the same level of ability he showed in 2021. We can upgrade the Newmarket run, as he was slow to gather his stride, which was perhaps not surprising on his first run for 14-months and although he was briefly outpaced, he kept trying up the hill and closed in the manner of a horse who would strip fitter next time. William Haggas has won this race 3-times since 2009 and looks to have found a good opening for his 5-year-old son of Territories.
Selections:
- Newmarket: 3:25 – GREAT TRUTH
- Newmarket: 4:00 – GORAK
- York: 2:35 – REGIONAL
- York: 3:10 – SPIRIT DANCER
- York: 3:45 – TASHKHAN
- Ascot: 2:20 – ALDAARY
*Prices subject to fluctuation.
