Emirates Lions vs Munster Rugby Preview
Round 15 of the United Rugby Championship takes place this weekend. The Emirates Lions will host Munster Rugby at Emirates Airline Park in Johannesburg. Kick-off is at 4 pm GMT on Saturday.
The Lions come into the game off the back of an emphatic 44-12 victory over Leinster in last weekend’s URC, while Munster claimed an impressive URC win of their own in seeing off the Vodacom Bulls, 27-22 in Pretoria. They come into this fixture as favourites to make it six straight wins in the competition.
Emirates Lions vs Munster Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
With just four rounds left to play in the regular season, it’s all to play for in this year’s URC. Munster currently sits in third and looks a sure bet to claim a play-off spot, having won nine of their 14 games in the competition. The Lions, meanwhile, have some work to do to get into the top eight. They sit 11th in the table, level on points with eighth-placed Edinburgh. A victory this weekend could see them surge into the play-off places.
The Lions’ form has been inconsistent this year. They lost their opening three URC games. A one-point victory over the Scarlets in round four kick-started their campaign. Despite losing their next game against Ulster, they won their next five games in all competitions to keep themselves in contention for a trophy. In the URC, their record stands at seven wins and seven losses. They need to tip that in their favour over the last four rounds to give themselves a chance of a playoff spot.
As for last year’s URC champions, Munster, they’re in pretty decent form. They have picked up six wins in eight games in all competitions. That includes five straight wins in the URC, which has seen them cement their place in the play-off places. There’s still some work to do between now and the end of the regular season. But there’s currently a nine-point gap between them and ninth-placed Connacht. Their record in this season’s competition is nine wins, four defeats and a solitary draw away at Benetton in round two.
Last weekend, the Lions were the only South African side to pick up a win in the URC. They claimed a bonus point in their 44-12 result over Leinster. Three tries in the opening 14 minutes gave them a commanding lead. They kept the visitors scoreless in the first half, as they led 22-0. Leinster battled back in the second half, but the home side was relentless against the Irish side.
Munster began their tour of South Africa a week ago, seeing off the Vodacom Bulls, 27-22, in a tight encounter in Pretoria. The home side was leading 22-17 when Johan Goosen received a straight red card for a dangerous tackle. The extra man took its toll as Munster grabbed two more tries to claim the victory and pick up a bonus point.
In their last meeting in January last year, Munster hammered the Lions 33-3 at Musgrave Park in Cork. Scott Buckley was a two-try hero on that occasion for the province, while Fly Half, Ben Healy, kicked four of his five conversions. The two previous encounters to that game saw the Lions victorious in both, and remarkably both games finished 23-21.
In this year’s URC, the Lions lead the way with scrums won, with a 96% success rate. Expect their forward pack to dominate the visitors in the scrum this weekend. They’re also second for tries scored from kicks, with five so far. They could use that tactic again, especially off the back of a solid scrum.
As for individuals, Marius Louw leads the way in turnovers lost, with 29. Teammate, Sanele Nohamba, is third in the competition with 22. Munster will target those two on Saturday. A more positive stat for the Lions is the try-scoring form of Francke Horn. He’s crossed the line seven times in this year’s URC, which puts him joint-third in the competition’s rankings.
Joburg, we can't stop now. Will we see you on Saturday? 🏟️🦁
🆚 @Munsterrugby
🗓: Sat, 27 Apr
⏰: 17:00
🎟: https://t.co/kqWzZftBGW
🏟 : Emirates Airline Park#LIOvsMUN @vodacom #URC #UnitedWeRise#LionsPride🦁 pic.twitter.com/q7ksOs2QE6— Lions (@LionsRugbyCo) April 22, 2024
Emirates Lions vs Munster Rugby Predictions
Correct Score Prediction: Emirates Lions 15-21 Munster
We’re backing the visitors to nick this game in a tight contest. They’ll be full of confidence with five straight wins in the URC. Munster also registered an impressive away win over the Bulls in South Africa last weekend. Getting two wins on their South African tour would be a statement of intent this close to the end of the season.
The Lions are not a team to overlook. Few expected them to get a result against Leinster, let alone a 32-point win. However, one result does not change the fact they have lost six of their ten games. Their inconsistent form this year means we’re betting on Munster this Saturday.
The bookies agree with us too, our online betting site has the Irish side as hot favourites to win at 4/11. While the Lions are the hosts, that advantage has not swung the odds in their favour. They remain underdogs with an outside chance at 9/4. A draw would pay well this week, but our rugby prediction sees Munster walking away with the victory.
Munster is second in the URC for turnovers won, so if you’re considering a bet in play, this could be a good market, especially if they target Louw and Nohamba. Munster also has a 92% success rate for scrums, which could be the key to this game. Gavin Coombes leads the charts in this year’s URC for carries and successful carries. So much of Munster’s drive through the middle will come through him.
Emirates Lions vs Munster Rugby Betting Tips
If you are planning on betting on Munster this Saturday, then there isn’t loads of value in the outright betting at 4/11. The handicap market looks much better, with Munster priced at 5/6 with a 5.5-point handicap. This offers much better value as you’ll almost double your money if it comes in. You should not rule out the Lions completely, especially at home. Their outright odds of 9/4 look pretty good in that regard, but we’re firmly behind the visitors in this one.
We also like the look of the first-half handicap market, which backs our opinion that this will be a tight game. You can get odds of 10/11 on the Lions with a +2.5 handicap, or 5/6 on Munster with a -2.5 handicap. We prefer the look of the latter in this one.
And if you fancy a flutter betting on the United Rugby Championship this weekend, how about the draw at 16/1? It’s not as outlandish as it might sound at first glance. This should be a close contest in Johannesburg, and there have only been two draws in the URC this season, with Munster involved in one of them. If you believe in omens, there’s a chance of a repeat in this fixture. You can always reduce your losses by using the welcome bonus on the Novibet website if you are betting on rugby this week.
Emirates Lions Team News & Lineups
There are no new injury concerns for the Lions following last week’s URC victory over Leinster. Francke Horn scored a try in that rugby match, on his 50th appearance for the Lions, while Emmanuel Tshituka scored two tries in a man-of-the-match display. Both players could start again this weekend.
- Emirates Predicted Lineup: Full-Back: Francke Horn, Winger: Richard Kriel, Centre: Erich Cronje, Centre: Marius Louw, Winger: Edwill Van der Merwe, Fly Half: Sanele Nohamba, Scrum Half: Morne van der Berg, Prop: Morgan Naude, Hooker: PJ Botha, Prop: Ruan Dreyer, Back Row: Willem Alberts, Back Row: Ruan Delport, Flanker: JC Pretorius, Flanker: Emmanuel Tshituka, Number 8: Quan Horn
Munster Rugby Team News & Lineups
The only injury doubt for Munster following last week’s victory over the Bulls is Craig Casey. He came off the bench in that game but did not last long. A high tackle from Johan Goosen floored Casey, with the Lions player picking up his marching orders for the challenge.
Aside from that, the Irish side should be able to name an unchanged team from last week’s game, barring any late injury scares in training.
- Munster Predicted Lineup: Full-Back: Simon Zebo, Winger: Calvin Nash, Centre: Antoine Frisch, Centre: Alex Nankivell, Winger: Shane Daly; Fly Half: Jack Crowley, Scrum Half: Conor Murray; Prop: Jeremy Loughman, Hooker: Niall Scannell, Prop: Stephen Archer; Back Row: RG Snyman, Back Row: Tadhg Beirne, Flanker: Peter O’Mahony, Flanker: Alex Kendellen, Number Eight: Jack O’Donoghue.
