We are here with our best UFC 321 betting tips and predictions as Tom Apsinall headlines a card with two title fights and some excellent stylistic matchups throughout. Elsewhere on the card, fan favourites like Umar Nurmagomedov and Alexander Volkov are in action, ensuring an evening packed with intrigue. Read ahead for our best MMA predictions this week.
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Predictions
Prediction: Aspinall via KO/TKO
There is no polite way to see this: Tom Aspinall wins this fight by any way he pleases. This heavyweight title fight looks like another showcase opportunity for the champion. It may be too early to call him one of the best UFC fighters of all time, but he is certainly one of the best in the world right now.
Ciryl Gane is a slick, technical striker with excellent movement for a man his size, but his lack of grappling defence and tendency to freeze under pressure make this a nightmare stylistic clash. Aspinall’s speed, timing, and finishing instinct are elite, and he has the well-rounded skill set to exploit every weakness in Gane’s game.
Aspinall’s hand speed is unlike anything we’ve seen at heavyweight, and his ability to mix boxing combinations with level changes makes him incredibly difficult to read. We are not even sure Gane has a chance at landing anything in this fight. Aspinall’s explosiveness will close the distance too quickly. Once he finds his range, it’s only a matter of time before he lands something decisive. Expect Aspinall to pressure Gane early, find his timing, and put him away. Tom Aspinal has never seen beyond the second round, and that will continue on Saturday night.
Aspinall vs Gane Odds
| Tom Aspinall Odds | Ciryl Gane Odds |
| 2/9 | 11/4 |
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Betting Tips
Bet on Aspinall to finish this in the first round, worth 15/8. The Englishman’s power, precision, explosiveness and speed are unlike any heavyweight we have ever seen. Gane is an incredible fighter, yet not on the champion’s level. We’re not sure anyone in the division is. It has been nearly five years since an Aspinall fight went beyond the first round, and we expect another short day at the office in Abu Dhabi.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Predictions
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via decision
This is a great fight and arguably tighter than our online sportsbook indicates. Mario Bautista has excellent boxing and can hang with the upper echelon of this division. However, Umar Nurmagomedov’s speed, volume and ability to grapple edge this one. He can mix up his striking with quick entries, dynamic kicks, and unpredictable movement. He does all of this while maintaining constant pressure that forces opponents to fight at his pace.
Nurmagomedov thrives in dictating where the fight takes place. His transitions between range striking and level changes are elite, and once he establishes control on the mat, it’s usually one-way traffic. He doesn’t rely purely on wrestling, though. His striking often sets up his takedown attempts perfectly. Against someone like Bautista, who likes to plant his feet and counter, that versatility could prove decisive.
However, Nurmagomedov’s conditioning, pace, and control of distance make that a tall order over three rounds. Bautista may find moments of success on the feet, but the Dagestani’s relentless style will earn him a win on the back of his title fight defeat.
Nurmagomedov vs Bautista Odds
| Usman Nurmagomedov Odds | Mario Bautista Odds |
| 2/13 | 18/5 |
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Betting Tips
We are expecting this three-round fight to go the distance, and for Nurmagomedov to have his arm raised at the end. Both fighters are durable and resilient with strong defensive instincts and excellent conditioning. For bettors, the most sensible play here is a bet on Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He’s the more complete and composed fighter, and this matchup plays directly into his strengths. Those expecting a more dominant performance could consider Nurmagomedov via submission as a longer-odds alternative.
Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern Predictions
Prediction: Jandiroba via decision
This is an intriguing title fight between two of the best grapplers in the women’s strawweight division. Mackenzie Dern is well known for her world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu. However, Virna Jandiroba’s own black belt pedigree and superior wrestling base make her a nightmare matchup for Dern. Both fighters prefer to take the fight to the mat, yet Jandiroba’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place and her improved striking may give her the edge. We are backing the underdog here.
Jandiroba has developed into a much more well-rounded fighter over the past few years. Her boxing has tightened up considerably, and her movement on the feet has evolved to the point where she can keep range and land clean combinations. Dern still struggles with her striking defence and often relies too heavily on her grappling to bail her out of difficult exchanges. Jandiroba’s composure and physicality should see her take over as the fight progresses.
Jandiroba vs Dern Odds
| Virna Jandiroba Odds | Mackenzie Dern Odds |
| 5/4 | 4/7 |
Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern Betting Tips
Our best angle here is a straight-win bet on Jandiroba. She is the underdog in the opening bets, but we think that will come in as we approach fight night. The Brazilian has fought and beaten a higher calibre of fighter than Dern, and we think she is underpriced. Get her at 13/10 while you still can.
Alekasandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov Predictions
Prediction: Murzakanov via KO/TKO
The main-card opener is one of the most intriguing matches of the evening. Aleksandar Rakic is on a three-fight slide, but all three have come against former light heavyweight champions. Azamat Murzakanov is undefeated in his career, but has never fought anyone at the level of Rakic. This is a tough one to call, but we lean towards Murzakanov.
Rakic has struggled since returning from his knee injury last year. His movement doesn’t look as fluid as it once was, and his output has noticeably dipped. Against someone as explosive and relentless as Azamat Murzakanov, that could be a major problem.
The Russian’s forward pressure, compact boxing combinations, and sheer power make him dangerous from the opening bell. He has built his undefeated record on aggression and fight-ending ability. Unfortunately, the signs from Rakic’s recent outings suggest that it may be too much to handle at this stage.
Rakic vs Murzakanov Odds
| Aleksandar Rakic Odds | Azamat Murzakanov Odds |
| 10/11 | 3/4 |
Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov Betting Tips
Our best bet here is a Murzakanov KO victory. The Russian has scary power. He boasts 11 knockouts in 15 victories, including when Brendson Ribeiro tapped out to his punches in June. Rakic is in decline, and this is an excellent opportunity for Murzakanov to move closer to the top five in the UFC light heavyweight division rankings with a statement victory.
Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida Predictions
Prediction: Almeida via submission
This fight looks tailor-made for a dominant Jailton Almeida performance. The Brazilian is an elite-level grappler who has finished all but two of his UFC opponents. Alexander Volkov’s struggles with defensive wrestling are well known, despite Drago bulking up and improving his grappling skills. Almeida will take him down consistently. His single-leg entries and chain wrestling are efficient, and once the fight hits the ground, it’s usually a matter of time before he advances position and locks in a submission or uses vicious ground and pound to stop the fight.
Volkov’s best chance here is to keep this fight standing and use his length and striking variety to keep Almeida at bay. The Russian has a significant advantage on the feet, with excellent use of distance, sharp combinations, and devastating kicks. If he can survive the early takedown attempts and make Almeida work, there’s a scenario where Volkov could take over in the later rounds. The problem is that Almeida rarely allows opponents to find rhythm. He will control Volkov on the ground and look to sink in a submission from there.
Volkov vs Almeida Odds
| Alexander Volkov Odds | Jailton Almeida Odds |
| 13/8 | 2/5 |
Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida Betting Tips
Our best UFC betting angle for this fight is an Almeida stoppage victory. Malhadinho has an incredible 21 knockouts/submissions in 22 career wins. Thirteen of those have come via submission. Volkov’s struggles with his defensive grappling make us lean towards yet another here. Bet on Almeida to win via submission.
Nathaniel Wood vs Jose Delgado Predictions
Prediction: Delgado via KO/TKO
This is a very tough fight to pick. Nathaniel Wood is probably a more well-rounded fighter than Jose Delgado, but he is battle-worn and lacks the kind of power Delgado boasts. The American fighter mixes up his striking with nasty knees and kicks and will be looking to end this fight from the first bell.
However, Wood’s experience and gas tank tell us that he can stand toe-to-toe and get the decision if he can last three rounds. This essentially comes down to this: do we think Wood lasts three rounds? The answer to that is no. He has been dropped a lot, and Delgado has enough power to end this fight very quickly. We are not writing the English fighter off at all, but we give the edge to Delgado here.
Wood vs Delgado Odds
| Nathaniel Wood Odds | Jose Delgado Odds |
| 6/5 | 4/7 |
Nathaniel Wood vs Jose Delgado Betting Tips
Wood has fought to decisions in his previous eight fights, but has accumulated a lot of damage. Delgado is a vicious striker. All of his 10 career wins have come inside the distance, with six KO/TKOs. He is on a seven-fight winning streak, with all of his previous five coming via knockout. He will look to walk Wood down here and overwhelm him with his volume and range of striking. Bet on Delgado to win via KO/TKO at UFC 321.
