After analysing the favourites to win this year’s World Cup, the new 48-team format and the full match schedule, it’s time to look at how the teams might progress in this year’s tournament. With the help of Opta’s probability supercomputer, historical performance data from previous editions and the composition of this year’s groups, there are opportunities that cannot be ignored when it comes to the special team betting markets in this year’s competition.
Spain favourites for the trophy
Let’s start with the outright winner market, where the supercomputer gives Spain the highest probability of lifting the trophy at 16.28%, followed by France at 12.52% and England at 10.77%, in what is an all-European top three. This is also supported by recent history, with 5 of the last 7 major trophies going to European nations.
On the other hand, the fact that this year the top two teams from each of the 12 groups plus the 8 best third-placed teams qualify makes predictions more complex. Artificial intelligence, however, seems confident, almost assuming early exits for New Zealand, Qatar, Tunisia, DR Congo, Jordan, Panama, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Curaçao, South Africa, Australia and Haiti in the group stage. The so-called “worst” third-placed teams (also expected to exit) are projected to be Ghana, Uzbekistan, Scotland, Algeria and Cape Verde.
Possible France–Germany clash in the Round of 16
Things become even more interesting when looking at the knockout stage path. If Germany and France both finish top of their groups as expected, they are likely to meet in the Round of 16. For this reason, the supercomputer assigns Germany just a 34% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Germany to be eliminated in the Round of 16 is priced at 11/4, while qualification for the quarter-finals is priced at 13/10.
Brazil–England showdown in the quarter-finals
A similar heavyweight clash could take place in the quarter-finals between Brazil and England, provided both sides meet expectations. This is why the supercomputer gives Brazil just a 21.65% chance of reaching the semi-finals. In such a scenario, the two nations with the most historical World Cup quarter-final exits (England 7 times, Brazil 6 times) would face off. Brazil or England to be eliminated in the quarter-finals is priced at 7/2 at Novibet.
Messi vs Cristiano Ronaldo for a place in the semi-finals
A third potential superstar clash is Argentina vs Portugal in the quarter-finals. A meeting between Lionel Messi’s team and Cristiano Ronaldo’s side could happen if both finish top of their groups and progress through the Round of 32 and Round of 16. The supercomputer gives the reigning champions a slight edge, with a 30% chance of reaching the semi-finals, compared to 24.13% for Portugal. Portugal to be eliminated in the quarter-finals is priced at 7/2 at Novibet, while Argentina to reach the semi-finals is priced at 9/4. In this scenario, Argentina would be strong favourites to reach the final, based on history, having progressed from all five World Cup semi-finals they have reached so far (a 100% success rate).
Spain and the Netherlands on track for the quarter-finals
Spain and the Netherlands appear to have relatively favourable paths to the quarter-finals. “La Roja”, if they overcome Uruguay in the group stage, could face Belgium in the quarter-finals. The model gives Spain a 51.68% chance of reaching at least this stage. Spain to reach the semi-finals is priced at 13/10 at Novibet.
The Netherlands, meanwhile, if they live up to expectations, could set up a quarter-final clash with France, with odds of 9/5 for that outcome. In this scenario, the supercomputer clearly favours France, giving them a 32.5% chance of reaching the semi-finals compared to just 15.66% for the Dutch.
