LASK v Liverpool Prediction, Betting Tips and H2H 14/10/2026

Our model makes LASK the clear pick here, and we're happy to follow it. LASK are 56% favourites to beat Liverpool, against 23% for the visitors and 21% for the draw, with a 2-1 LASK win the most likely scoreline. A 33-point gap between the home and away win looks bold given the badges involved, but the numbers behind it hold up. LASK have won three of their four home league games and average 2.5 goals per home match. This Liverpool squad arrives without Isak, Szoboszlai or Gakpo. Recent form is the worry, since LASK have lost three of their last five. We think the home record counts for more than that slump, and a narrow home win with both sides scoring is where we land.

Our three picks all point the same way: LASK at home, and goals. The safest of them is the double chance, because LASK or the draw comes in at 77% on our numbers. A home side scoring 2.5 a game at their own ground is hard to see losing to a Liverpool team missing its top scorer. The straight win at 56% carries more value for anyone happy to take on a bit of risk, and over 2.5 goals completes the set on the back of LASK's habit of open, high-scoring games.

The callouts tell a split story, and the first is the one to bet on. 75% of LASK's league matches have gone over 2.5 goals, eight games in. Liverpool are a different type of team: half of their six Premier League matches ended in a clean sheet, and they lost only one of their last five. Something has to give. We side with the goals, because a home attack averaging 2.5 a game at its own ground is a sterner test than most of what Liverpool have kept out so far.

Form is the one column that argues against our pick, so it deserves an honest look. LASK have won just one of their last five, losing three, and they went down 2-0 to SK Rapid in their most recent outing. Before that came a 3-3 draw with Hartberg, a 2-1 loss to Sturm Graz and a 1-0 defeat to AEK Athens. Their last win was 3-1 against Wolfsberger AC on 1 September.

Home is a different matter. LASK have won three of their four home league games, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.75 per match there, and that is where this one is played.

Liverpool's run reads better, with three wins, a draw and a loss, six goals scored and five conceded. That defeat was a heavy one, 3-0 at Manchester City on 11 October. Even so, they are unbeaten in three away league games, winning two of them.

History offers LASK nothing at all. Liverpool won both previous meetings, scoring seven and conceding one. The first came in September 2023, a 3-1 Liverpool win on LASK's ground, and the return in November finished 4-0 at Anfield's end of the tie.

We wouldn't lean on this too heavily. Both games were three years ago, and Liverpool's absentee list now includes the very attackers who would be expected to punish LASK. Anyone backing the visitors can point to a perfect record, but two matches is a thin sample, and our model rates current home form above it.

Liverpool are hit far harder than their hosts. Isak, Gakpo and Szoboszlai are all injured, and between them they have six of Liverpool's seven league goals. Endo and Chiesa are suspended, and Ekitiké is a doubt with an Achilles tendon rupture. LASK lose three suspended squad players, Harakaté, Kébé and Smakaj, none of whom has recorded minutes this season, so their usual 3-1-4-2 should be close to full strength.

LASK's goals are spread across ten different scorers, but Christoph Lang is the one to build a scorer bet around, and Samuel Adeniran's four goals in 251 minutes make him a dangerous option off the bench. Liverpool's picture is far gloomier. With Isak, Gakpo and Szoboszlai out, Liverpool's available players have one league goal between them, and it belongs to Víctor Muñoz. Florian Wirtz carries the creative load almost on his own.

This is the gap that drives both the over 2.5 pick and the LASK win. LASK average 2.38 goals per match, more than double Liverpool's 1.17, a difference of 1.21 a game. Defensively the clubs are close, with LASK conceding 1.12 and Liverpool 1.17.

At home LASK push it further still, scoring 2.5 and conceding just 0.75 per game. Liverpool's away numbers are tidier than their overall ones, 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded on the road, and that is the strongest argument for the visitors. Those figures came with Isak available, though, and he is out this time.

The minute bands favour a fast LASK start. LASK scored 9 of their 19 goals inside the first half hour, six of them between the 16th and 30th minute, and they have not conceded once in that second quarter hour. Liverpool, by contrast, have not scored at all between the 16th and 45th minutes.

Liverpool's danger period runs from the hour onwards. Three of the seven goals they conceded came between the 61st and 75th minute, and they have yet to score in that spell. LASK aren't spotless after the break either, letting in three in the first 15 minutes of the second half. If the game is tight at the interval, we prefer the second-half goals market to the first.

LASK should have more of the ball and more of the chances, which backs both the win and the goals. LASK average 19.6 shots per match, nearly five more than Liverpool's 14.8. On target the gap is 6.2 against 5.0. Possession is closer than many will expect, 58% for LASK and 55% for Liverpool, so this won't be a siege.

Liverpool are a touch more accurate, landing 34% of their efforts on target to LASK's 32%, but accuracy counts for less without Isak in the box. Volume tends to tell in games like this, and LASK have more of it. Punters looking at shots on target markets should start with the home side.

The lines support over 2.5 more than anything higher. Every LASK league match has had at least two goals, against 67% for Liverpool, giving an 84% average on the over 1.5. At 2.5 the shares are 75% for LASK and 50% for Liverpool, a 62% average that sits right where our tip does.

Push up to 3.5 and the numbers fall away sharply, to 38% and 33%, so we wouldn't chase the bigger line. Both teams to score is the shakier option at a 42% average, with Liverpool's games producing it only a third of the time. Our 2-1 call does need both sides on the scoresheet, but on these shares we'd rather take the total than depend on a weakened Liverpool attack finding the net.

Cards look far more likely to come from the visitors. Liverpool pick up 2.7 yellow cards a game, almost double LASK's 1.4, and commit 14 fouls per match to LASK's 9. Combined, the sides average 4.1 yellows, so a cards line around four is live if the betting odds offer it, with Liverpool the team to back in a team cards market. Red cards are rare, 0.3 a game between them.

Corners point even more clearly to LASK. They win 7.8 a game and concede only 1.4, while Liverpool concede 4.7. With 12 corners won per game between the two sides, the home corners handicap is our preferred side market.

The trends say LASK start fast and Liverpool finish leaky. 53% of LASK's goals have come in the first half, while only 29% of Liverpool's have. For football betting, that tilts the half-time result market towards the home side, especially with Liverpool's attack short of its regulars.

After the hour the picture shifts. LASK score 26% of their goals beyond the 60th minute and concede 33% there. Liverpool score 29% late but concede 57% of their goals in that period, and that is the trend we'd build an in-play plan around. If LASK trail by one with half an hour left, a late equaliser is far from fanciful, because this is exactly the spell where Liverpool have shipped most of theirs.