Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France UFC 317 Preview
Kai Kara-France challenges Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight championship at UFC 317 on June 29th at 4:00 am. Pantoja is looking to complete his fourth successive defence since winning the title in 2023.
The Brazilian will have nearly cleared the division of top contenders should he defeat the Kiwi. Can Kara-France put an end to his reign, or will the Cannibal announce himself as the best since Demtrious Johnson at 125lbs?
Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France Predictions
Fight prediction: Pantoja via submission
One of our best MMA predictions this week is for Alexandre Pantoja to leave the T-Mobile Arena with a victory on Saturday night. Both of these men are extremely violent when standing up. Kara-France is an excellent kickboxer, and Pantoja is a powerful boxer. However, a firefight plays into Kara-France’s hands. The Kiwi fighter will beat him in a stand-up battle. Pantoja excels on the ground, and Kara-France knows he cannot win from there. That is why we expect a less chaotic champion than what we are used to on Sunday.
Even when wrestling, Pantoja is always looking to finish his opponent. The Cannibal is masterful with his sweeps and uses them to consistently find a way to lock in a choke or a lock. He landed three takedowns on Kai Asakura in his last fight before submitting him in the second round, nine on Steve Erceg, and eight on Brandon Royval before him.
Kara-France has struggled in the past when taken out of his rhythm. Brandon Moreno exposed those gaps, mixing up his striking and level changes to keep the Kiwi guessing. Pantoja has that same relentless energy but with a sharper submission arsenal. He hunts for the neck constantly, whether it’s off a scramble or from the back. His control time might not always be dominant, but his transitions are slick and opportunistic.
For Kara-France to pull off the upset, he needs to control the tempo and distance from the opening bell. He must keep the fight standing at all costs. Footwork and distance management will be critical. If he can keep Pantoja at the end of his punches and kicks, using lateral movement to avoid being pressed against the cage, he can frustrate the champion and force him into taking desperate shots. Kara-France is at his most dangerous when he’s dictating range, throwing sharp combinations, and mixing in body kicks that sap his opponent’s cardio. The key is staying composed under pressure and avoiding extended grappling exchanges.
That is far easier said than done against a true mixed martial artist like Pantoja. We’re backing Alexandre Pantoja to win via submission, most likely in the second or third round. The Brazilian will break Kara-France’s base with consistent grappling pressure and will force a mistake in transition. Failing that, he should control Kara-France enough to earn a decision victory.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France Betting Tips
- Method of Victory – Alexandre Pantoja via submission: Pantoja is a masterful grappler and can secure his 12th submission victory against Kara-France. The advantage he has over the Kiwi on the ground is night and day, and is where he will want most of this fight to take place. Bet on Pantoja to win via submission, worth 11/5.
- Round Betting – Alexandre Pantoja in Round 2: The champ will want to control Kara-France on the ground, and that will be a lot easier when both men are dry in the early rounds. That’s going to make it a lot harder for the Kiwi to scramble and easier for Pantoja to keep hold of him. The Brazilian is a master at submitting his opponents early, and we think he can get Kara-France out of there in round 2, worth 7/1 for anyone betting on the UFC.
- Over/Under – Under 3.5 rounds: If Pantoja is to secure the finish, we think it will come in the first two or three rounds. That looks like a valuable bet with our online sportsbook. We saw the champ submit Kai Asakura in round two of his last defence. Six of Pantoha’s seven finishes in the UFC have come in rounds one or two. Consider backing this fight going under 3.5 rounds, worth 11/10 for anyone betting on the over/under.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Kai Kara-France is a seasoned striker from New Zealand and a product of the famed City Kickboxing gym. He owns a record of 25–11 (1 NC), with 11 knockouts and 3 submissions. Despite being just 5’4″ with a 69″ reach, he makes up for his size with explosive striking and fast-twitch counters.
Kara-France has notable wins over Askar Askarov, Cody Garbrandt, and Rogério Bontorin, showcasing his ability to hang with top-tier flyweights. Known for his toughness and sharp kickboxing, “Don’t Blink” has struggled with consistency at the elite level but remains a live threat.
Tale Of The Tape |
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| Alexandre Pantoja (C) | Kai Kara-France | |
| Age | 35 | 32 |
| Height | 5’5 | 5’4 |
| Reach | 67” | 69” |
| Record | 29-5 | 25-11 |
| Style | MMA | Kickboxer |
Alexandre Pantoja is the reigning UFC flyweight champion and one of the most aggressive grapplers in the division. The Brazilian holds a professional record of 28–5, with 8 wins by knockout and 11 by submission. Standing at 5’5″ with a 67″ reach, he combines relentless pressure with slick jiu-jitsu, making him a constant submission threat in any position.
A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Pantoja thrives in scrambles and rarely gives opponents room to breathe once the fight hits the mat. He’s currently riding a five-fight win streak, including victories over Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval, and has successfully defended his title against Steve Erceg. His high fight IQ and killer instinct have made him a dominant force at 125 lbs.
