Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee Predictions, Betting Tips and H2H 06/09/2025

Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee Preview

Rhys McKee looks to make it back-to-back wins when he faces UFC debutant Axel Sola on Saturday night in Paris, France. The Frenchman brings an undefeated record into this fight and will make his debut in front of a home crowd.

McKee struggled in his first UFC bouts but finally got off the mark in April. He lost his first two fights by decision, but looks to have found a groove. Can he make it two in two, or will Sola make a winning start in the biggest MMA promotion in the world?

Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee Predictions

Fight prediction: Rhys McKee via decision

One of our best MMA predictions this week is for Rhys McKee to make it back-to-back wins with a victory over Axel Sola on Saturday. McKee had a tough start to life in the UFC, going 0-4 across two spells with the promotion. However, even in defeat, he rarely looked out of his depth, and some of those decision losses were tight. He finally picked up his first win after brutalising Daniel Frunza in one round in April, and this is a good way to announce that he means business.

The biggest difference maker in this fight could be the size difference. McKee has a four-inch reach advantage over Sola. Skeletor’s range is very frustrating for opponents and allows him to land from the outside, before entering the pocket and unleashing punishment. That is what we saw in his fight against Frunza, where he dropped him three times in the opening round before winning by doctor’s stoppage after five minutes. McKee can keep Sola at range and control the cage, scoring with his strikes.

It is not just the reach advantage where the size difference may matter either. Sola is a natural 155lb fighter and is stepping up to 170 on short notice. Granted, he is a bigger lightweight, but that 15lb jump could seriously deplete his power. We are more accustomed to seeing 155-lbers drop down to featherweight rather than step up. While Sola has some experience at welterweight, just a glance at his record will tell you how much power he loses (1 KO at 170lbs compared to four at lightweight).

Another factor to consider is the level of experience. McKee has been fighting professionally since 2015 and has more than double the number of pro fights compared to Sola. He has faced UFC-level talent multiple times and been through the kind of adversity that often hardens fighters and elevates their IQ inside the cage. Sola, meanwhile, is still a relatively fresh prospect at 10-0-1 and has never faced someone with the striking output and cardio of McKee over three rounds. This fight is a big step up for him, and that might become clear once McKee starts pushing the pace.

Sola’s best path to victory is probably to make this a grappling-heavy affair. He is technically sound on the mat and has shown good control from top position. If he can close the distance without taking too much damage and mix in takedowns early, he could slow McKee’s striking rhythm and rack up control time. The problem is that McKee’s takedown defence has steadily improved. He does his best work when he’s able to sprawl and punish opponents as they shoot. If Sola struggles to ground him in the first round, those takedown attempts could become more desperate and leave him open to knees and uppercuts as the fight wears on.

There is no doubt that this will be a tight fight, but there are simply too many unknowns regarding Sola. He has never fought in the UFC before, and is nearly three years removed from his last fight at welterweight. Also, he is yet to fight anyone with the experience that McKee has. This is a bout that will prove whether McKee truly has what it takes to stick around in the UFC.

Ultimately, this feels like a fight where McKee’s size, length, and experience carry him to a comfortable decision win. Sola is tough and durable enough to hang around for the full 15 minutes. However, McKee should be able to dictate the range, pile up damage with straight punches and body kicks, and keep himself out of prolonged grappling exchanges. Expect McKee to control the majority of this fight, keep it standing, and walk away with a unanimous decision on the scorecards.

Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee Betting Tips

• Fight Result – Rhys McKee to win: Axel Sola is the favourite for this fight, but there are too many unknowns to back him at odds-on. We predict that too much is being put behind a record that has been entirely fought in minor promotions. The money lies with Skeletor here. A bet on McKee is worth 21/20.

• Total Rounds – Over 2.5 Rounds: This fight is built to go long. Both McKee and Sola are durable fighters who have shown an ability to take damage and keep coming, and neither is known for one-punch knockout power at this level. When betting on the over/under, the value is on the over here, as this feels like a technical, competitive fight that should reach the scorecards. A bet on over 2.5 rounds is worth 8/15 with our online sportsbook. 
• Method of Victory – Rhys McKee by KO/TKO: While a decision is the most likely outcome, there is value in betting on MMA longshots like a McKee stoppage. McKee’s striking looked sharper than ever in his last fight when he dropped Daniel Frunza three times in a single round. If Sola struggles with the size difference or starts to fade after a gruelling first two rounds, McKee has the tools to force a referee stoppage with sustained pressure. You will get generous odds on McKee to win via KO/TKO, making this a worthwhile wager.

Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee Head-To-Head and Key Stats

Sola’s Recent Form

Sola arrives here as a flawless, unbeaten prospect. His record stands at 10-0-1, with a dynamic mix of knockouts and one submission victory. His most recent fight came in June 2025, where he picked up a unanimous decision win over Ghiles Oudelha over five rounds. That was his first lightweight fight to go the distance. 

Earlier in 2025, he scored a second-round TKO over Lucas Caio, following a string of stoppages. That includes a TKO over Soslan Gagloev in September 2024 and a fourth-round TKO over Turpal Younousov in December 2023. Notably, his only non-win came in mid-2024 when he battled Daguir Imavov to a majority draw over five rounds.

McKee’s Recent Form

McKee steps into this fight riding a much-needed wave of momentum. After a shaky start in the UFC, he finally broke through in April 2025 with a stunning performance against Daniel Frunza. That earned him both his first UFC victory and a Performance of the Night bonus following a first-round TKO via doctor’s stoppage.

Before that, his UFC outings painted a frustrating picture. Most recently, he fought to a split-decision loss to Chidi Njokuani in March 2024. Before that came a unanimous decision defeat to Ange Loosa in September 2023. However, between UFC runs, he impressed in Cage Warriors with consecutive stoppage wins, proving his finishing pedigree remains intact.

Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee Fight Outcome

Rhys McKee should continue his resurgence with a measured performance against Axel Sola. This fight looks tailor-made for the Northern Irishman to showcase his striking, keep the fight standing, and pile up damage over three rounds. McKee thrives when he can operate at range, and with a significant reach advantage, he will dictate the terms of engagement from the opening bell. Expect him to use his jab early to establish distance, mix in kicks to the body and legs, and slowly wear Sola down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p86g2q8DJfY&pp=ygUKUkhZUyBNQ0tFRQ%3D%3D

Sola’s best route is to make this ugly. Closing the distance is going to be tough. He will have to clinch, drag McKee to the mat, and turn it into a grind. However, McKee’s takedown defence and range management make that an uphill battle. If he can stuff the early attempts and keep the fight at striking distance, McKee’s length and cardio will take over, leaving Sola chasing as the minutes slip away.

The biggest question is whether Sola can absorb McKee’s volume for the full fifteen minutes. While a late stoppage isn’t off the table, Sola has shown toughness and durability in previous fights, and he may be able to grit his way to the final horn. What seems more likely is a clear decision win for McKee, with him sweeping most, if not all, of the rounds on the judges’ scorecards.