Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto Preview
Brad Katona and Jean Matsumoto fight on the preliminary card at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Pereira on October 19th. Prelims start at 9:00 pm as both fighters look to make it back-to-back wins in the octagon.
Matsumoto enjoyed a winning debut in the UFC in April and looks an exciting prospect in the bantamweight division. Katona is enjoying his second stint in the UFC and the 32-year-old still hopes to break into the top 15. Can the Canadian stop the hype train or will Matsumoto climb another rung on the ladder in his sophomore fight?
Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto Predictions
Fight Prediction: Jean Matsumoto by Decision
Both fighters are capable strikers. Brad Katona’s quick footwork and volume striking can keep his opponents on the back foot while Jean Matsumoto’s dynamism keeps them guessing. The grappling exchanges could be interesting in this match and potentially where the fight can be won.
Brad Katona has excellent ground defence while Jean Matsumoto’s Jiu-Jitsu has already earned him a submission victory in the UFC. However, Matsumoto has more diverse skills on his feet and on the ground, which can carry him to victory. Our MMA prediction is for Jean Matsumoto to continue his undefeated streak at the expense of Katona.
Matsumoto will push the pace in this fight. The Brazilian faced adversity in his last bout, allowing Dan Argueta to lead the proceedings and struggling in the first round. He bounced back in the second after Argueta tired himself out and sunk in a rear naked choke for the submission victory. Matsumoto comes into this fight with that learning experience but also has a physical advantage that he didn’t have against Argueta. He will have a four-inch reach over Superman and can use that to push Katona back, who likes to strike with volume and push his opponents toward the fence.
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The ground exchanges look very interesting in this fight. Matsumoto has excellent Jiu-Jitsu and has proven so with six submission victories in his career. His ability to transition between striking and grappling was on show in the second round of his last fight and he can switch up on Katona at the turn of a dime. However, Katona has excellent ground defence and it would not be a surprise to see him land a takedown of his own. He has landed seven combined in his previous two fights.
Matsumoto was taken down nine times in two rounds in his last fight and has to improve his defence for this fight. Argueta eventually tired himself out, and the Brazilian took advantage to sink in a choke. However, Katona’s gas tank is one of his biggest assets and he will not tire like Argueta. Matsumoto has to avoid getting into a cardio-off with one of the most durable fighters in the division.
Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto Fight Outcome
Jean Matsumoto will have learned a lot from his first fight in the UFC. Dan Argueta took the youngster by surprise and plenty more skilled fighters will have taken advantage of the nine takedowns he landed. Brad Katona is one of them. Give Superman an inch and he will take a mile. He has a far superior gas tank to Argueta and Matsumoto cannot afford to let him lead the exchanges as he did Argueta.
That is why the Brazilian will control the distance and look for openings from round one. He now has the reach advantage, a luxury he did not have in his last fight. That, paired with his speed, can stop Katona from getting inside the pocket. This will not be an easy fight for Matsumoto, but a decision victory beckons with control of the distance and smart defence.
Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto Betting Tips
Moneyline
Jean Matsumoto enters this fight as a clear favourite, worth 9/20 with our online bookmaker. He is undefeated with a perfect 15-0 record and is fancied to carry on that streak in this fight. However, his odds don’t present great value. Brad Katona is the toughest test of his career so far and this is a fight where he could play spoiler. We think there are better bets to make than the moneyline.
Method of Victory
Neither of these men boasts heavy hands with just four KOs between them in 34 fights. They also have clean knockout records, having never been finished in a fight. We are ruling out a KO victory, but there are still opportunities for a finish. Matsumoto has 40% of his fights via submission, owing to his excellent Jiu-Jitsu skills.
He is coming off a submission victory and can match it here. Katona has never been submitted but probably hasn’t faced a fighter who poses the kind of threat on the ground that Matsumoto does. A bet on Matsumoto to win via submission is 13/2.
If you want to extend those odds, you can add a round betting market to the method. Matsumoto won his last fight via submission in the second round and can match that here. MMA betting markets are offering a huge price of 16/1 for the Brazilian to win via submission in round two of this fight.
Jean Matsumoto puts Dan Argueta into a daze by submission just 1 second before the end of the round! #ufcfightnight pic.twitter.com/TRsp3Ouwhl
— X Fights (@XKnockouts) April 6, 2024
Both men have won a majority of their fights via decision. Brad Katona’s gas tank means he is always in the fight and often snatches late rounds. Matsumoto’s ground game and muy-thai striking style can suffocate and hurt opponents. We think the most likely outcome is a decision victory in this fight. Katona to win by decision is worth 13/5 for anyone betting on the UFC, while Matsumoto is 1/1. We sway towards the Brazilian for this fight.
Multiples
Several exciting fights take place on the preliminary and main card of this fight. Four Brazilians are on the card, including Michel Pereira, who headlines against Anthony Hernandez. Pereira is one of the most entertaining fighters in the promotion with a highlight reel of finishes. He has won eight fights on the bounce and can catapult himself into middleweight title contention with a win. A moneyline bet on Pereira and Matsumoto to win is worth 2/1 at Novibet.
Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto Head-To-Head and Key Stats
This will be Brad Katona’s eighth fight in the UFC over two spells. The two-time ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ winner is 4-3 in the promotion with every fight ending via decision. His second run in the UFC came after he won TUF 31 in August 2023, defeating Cody Gibson in the final at UFC 292 and earning a Fight of The Night bonus.
Superman followed up with a tight decision loss to Garrett Armfield at UFC 297 before his most recent fight against Jesse Butler on June 8. The Canadian bounced back with a dominant decision victory, winning all three rounds on the judges’ scorecards and one awarding a 10-8 round in his favour.
Katona is 5’6” with a 64” reach, often giving up the reach advantage because of his stature. However, his fast hands aid him when fighting inside the pocket and the Ireland-native is deceptively strong, with good takedown defence and offence. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Shotokan karate, Katona is adept on the ground and his feet. The Canadian doesn’t have a gleaming finish rate and instead relies on his stamina to grind out victories and drag his opponents into later rounds where he picks them apart. He has finishes in just four of his 14 wins, three by submission and one by knockout.
Jean Matsumoto caught UFC President Dana White’s eye on the Contender Series last year when he defeated Kasey Tanner by unanimous decision. The Brazilian made his official UFC debut in April when he fought Dan Argueta on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2. Matsumoto faced a strong fighter, being taken down nine times and conceding over six minutes of control time. However, he recovered in the second and took advantage of a fatigued Argueta, pouncing on his neck to win via rear naked choke.
The 25-year-old is undefeated in his career with a 15-0 record. He mixes muy-thai striking with excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills, initiating offence with creativity to help find openings for finishes. His youth and speed can overwhelm opponents with the Brazilian seven years Katona’s junior. Matsumoto looks like a top prospect in the bantamweight division.
Matsumoto is the same height as Katona, standing at 5’6”, but has a significant four-inch reach advantage at 68”. He looks to have the power advantage in this fight, boasting three knockout victories to Katona’s one. Although both are high-level BJJ fighters, Matsumoto looks to have the advantage there. The prospect has six submission victories in 15 fights, taking him to nine finishes in his career.
This is undoubtedly the biggest test of his career. Brad Katona has fought at a high level for longer through two spells in the biggest MMA promotion in the world. The Canadian has fought and beaten more experienced fighters and has the tools to cause an upset if Matsumoto sleepwalks through the opening round as he did against Argueta.
Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto Full Fight Card
- Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
- Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips
- Jake Hadley vs. Cameron Smotherman
- Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji
- Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda
- Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev
- Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto
- Joselyne Edwards vs. Tamires Vidal
- Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed
- Melissa Martinez vs. Alice Ardelean
- Austen Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne
