Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins 18:00, Preview
Set your schedule for this weeks 4 NFL matchup between the Dolphins and Bills, which you can watch on CBS at 1:00 (10/1/23). The game will be hosted at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park (NY).
The Bills are set as 3 point favorites at home in this AFC East showdown. Can they pull off a home win and cover the spread?
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins 18:00, Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Going back to last season, the Bills and Dolphins faced off three times, with the Bills going 2-1. Against the spread, the Dolphins went 3-0 while the over/under record in these games was 2-1 on an average of 55.3 points per game. The Bills had the edge in terms of offensive yards last season, averaging 455.3 yards of offense compared to the Dolphins at 282.7.
Last season, the Dolphins and Bills did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Bills have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread the Dolphins went 3-0. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 55 points per game.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins 18:00, Prediction
In three games, the Dolphins have a 3-0 record. This has them situated 1st in the AFC-East and 1st in the AFC. The Dolphins’ scoring margin thus far is currently at +19.7. This has contributed to an ATS record of 3-0. This season, the Dolphins have an over/under record of 2-1. Their average over/under betting line so far is 48 points with their games averaging a combined 67 points per contest.
Miami’s offense is 1st in the league, with an average of 43.3 points per contest. On the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins give up an average of 231.3 passing yards and 130.0 rushing yards per game. Looking at their sack numbers, Miami is currently ranked 6th in the league. So far, they are giving up 23.7 points per game and 361.3 yards.
In three games, the Bills have a 2-1 record. This has them situated 2nd in the AFC-East and 7th in the AFC. Taking a look at the Bills’ scoring margin this season, it is currently at +18.7. This has resulted in an ATS record of 2-1. Up to this point in the season, games featuring Buffalo have ranked 16th in total points. They have maintained an over/under record of 1-2, and the average over/under line for their games is 45.2 points.
The Bills come in with an average of 30.3 points per game which is 2nd in the NFL. Buffalo is 2nd in points allowed defensively. So far, their opponents are putting up an average of 11.7 points per game, accumulating 253.0 yards per contest.
Coming in as 3 point favorites, our projections have the Bills picking up a 27-24 win. In terms of win probabilities, our analytics gives Buffalo 59% chance of taking down the Dolphins.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins 18:00, Betting Tips
- Take the Bills on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Dolphins (+3)
- Our NFL model projects 51 points, and we suggest taking the under
Buffalo Bills Injury Report
- Reid Ferguson – Wrist (Questionable)
- Ryan Bates – Ankle (Questionable)
- Micah Hyde – Hamstring (Probable)
- Leonard Floyd – Ankle (Probable)
- Taron Johnson – Hip (Probable)
- Siran Neal – Ankle (Questionable)
- Jordan Poyer – Knee (Questionable)
- Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
- Baylon Spector – Hamstring (Out)
- Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
- Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
- Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
- Von Miller – Knee (Out)
Miami Dolphins Injury Report
- DeShon Elliott – Ankle/groin (Questionable)
- Erik Ezukanma – Neck (Questionable)
- Terron Armstead – Back/ankle/knee (Questionable)
- River Cracraft – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Durham Smythe – Hamstring (Probable)
- Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
- Robert Jones – Knee (Out)
- Jaelan Phillips – Oblique (Questionable)
- Jeff Wilson Jr. – Finger (Out)
- Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)
- Connor Williams – Groin (Questionable)
- Salvon Ahmed – Groin (Questionable)
- Nik Needham – Achilles (Out)
- Jalen Ramsey – Knee (Out)
- Tyler Kroft – Back (Questionable)
