Gillingham vs Leicester
Brendan Rodgers will be one Premier League manager cursing the World Cup break.
His Foxes side were flying pre-Qatar, but since returning to action Leicester have only a win over MK Dons in the EFL Cup to show for their hard work. Defeats against Newcastle, Liverpool and Fulham have knocked the wind from their sails.
Defeat at home to Newcastle was justified but the odd goal defeats in the other two games were harsh. Rodgers’ men could have easily taken a point and more in both games.
Still, they have three straight losses on their record and face Newcastle next week in the EFL Cup quarter-final.
Their eyes will, no doubt, be subconsciously on that game and changes are expected for the trip to Priestfield.
The Gills have sold out their ground for their game of the season,despite their torrid run in League Two.
The hosts are bottom of the league and face relegation to the National League after three straight league defeats.
Their record this season is dreadful with just two wins from 11 at home. But in the cups they have done well, beating Brentford away on penalties before losing at Wolves in the EFL Cup fourth round.
They have also edged past Fylde and Dagenham and Redbridge to earn their place in the FA Cup third round – and there’s no doubt Neil Harris will have them fired up against the Foxes.
Harris has asked for a shift in mentality and has pleaded for some wiggle room in the transfer window. “We are in January, the transfer window is open, we need players inthe building as soon as possible,” said Harris.
Just how his players will react to that is unclear, but if Leicester have their minds on Newcastle then they could find trouble in Kent. It may be too much to expect the Gills to win, but the draw at around 5/1 is worth getting involved in.
Liverpool vs Wolves
Jurgen Klopp has had plenty to think about this week after his Reds suffered another setback with a damaging 3-1 defeat at Brentford. For the most part those problems have come on the road with four defeats already this season.
Liverpool have been more like their old selves at home and only Leeds have won at Anfield so far this term.
The Reds also top the xG charts at home (2.61) but they have also conceded in six of their nine home games in the league. Their confidence will undoubtedly have been knocked after defeat in Hounslow, but it’s likely Klopp will make wholesale changes to his line-up.
Caoimhin Kelleher is set to start in goal and Virgil van Dijk will get a rest, while Liverpool’s problematic midfield is likely to get another overhaul.
Cody Gakpo is in line to make his debut and youngster Ben Doak could get a run-out as Klopp attempts to field a side capable of defending the trophy.
Wolves were unfortunate not to come away from Aston Villa with all three points on Wednesday after an enterprising display under Julen Lopetegui.
Daniel Podence is a concern after scoring at Villa Park and Lopetegui may shuffle his pack with a game against Forest in the EFL Cup next Wednesday.
Wolves’ xG (1.57) away from home has them in eighth place in the league – considerably higher than their 19th place in the table. And they won on Boxing Day, beating Everton 2-1.
A Merseyside double is not out of the question, given the question marks over Liverpool’s rearguard at the current time.
Wolves are worth chancing to win at Anfield, but both teams to score looks like the banker on Saturday night.
Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest
Forest got off the mark away from home in the Premier League on Wednesday night with a 1-0 win at struggling Southampton.
Forest had only netted once in the league away from the City ground before Taiwo Awoniyi’s winner against the Saints. And afterwards Steve Cooper challenged his side to stay out of the relegation zone as they moved two points clear of the drop zone.
With that in mind they may be forgiven for taking their eye off the ball this weekend.
Cooper’s men have two cup games, starting at Blackpool on Saturday,before they face Wolves in the EFL Cup quarter-final next week.
Forest are in the midst of a gruelling run of games – five in 14 days since the turn of the year. And it’s likely Cooper will make changes against the Seasiders.
Cooper has tended to go strong in the Carabao Cup previously, with wins against Spurs and Blackburn justifying his selections. But with Leicester to come a week on Saturday in a huge derby game, then some of his fringe players are expected to be thrown in.
Cooper has praised the togetherness of the group that are not playing regular first-team football – and he looks set to reward those players with game time.
Blackpool have struggled for results of late, have not won at home since October and sit 22nd in the Championship table.
Michael Appleton believes the game comes at a good time for his side,who he thinks have not got the rewards they deserve in the last five games.
The draw on New Year’s Day at home to Sunderland followed a much-improved display, especially in the first half when Blackpool were on the front foot and took the lead through Shayne Lavery.
Their xG (1.43) at home also points to a higher position in the table(16th) than their league position. But they do also concede chances and the xGA modelling at home (1.74) pits them as the worst in the second tier.
That is reflected in their price, with the hosts up at around 16/5and Forest odds on. It will be a brave punter to go all out on Blackpool, but with Forest expected to be well below strength, it could well pay to go for the hosts ‘Draw No Bet’ with goals likely.
Hull City vs Fulham
There will be two familiar managers up against their old clubs on Saturday when Hull take on Fulham.
Cottagers old boy Liam Rosenior played 92 times for the club, but he is now in charge at Hull and has guided them to 16th place and to within six points of the top six.
They have just one defeat in his seven games in charge and he will face former Tigers boss Marco Silva for a place in round four of the FA Cup.
Silva’s men are bang in form, winning their last three matches, although the 1-0 win at Leicester was slightly fortuitous.
Fulham do have a big west London derby with Chelsea on the horizon next Thursday and a trip to Newcastle three days later.
That schedule may be enough to see Silva rest his big guns. Silva did exactly that in the EFL Cup earlier this season and that ended in disaster as his side, with 10 changes, lost 2-0 at Crawley.
Another repeat of that could be on the cards, but Hull do give away chances on home soil. Their xGA (1.5) is almost the worst in the league and both teams have scored in their last four at the MKM Stadium.
Backing goals in Yorkshire looks the way to go with Hull’s Oscar Estupinan bang in form, rather than hanging your hat on a home or away win.
Key Stats
- Fulham have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches against Hull in all competitions
- Leicester have lost their last three Premier League games
- Gillingham have lost their last four games in all competitions
- Leicester have scored at least two goals in their last four matches against Gillingham in all competitions
- Liverpool have won their last seven matches against Wolves in all competitions
- In Liverpool’s last five games in all competitions, both teams have scored
- Blackpool have seen over 2.5 goals in six of their last seven home matches against Nottingham Forest in all competitions
- Nottingham Forest have scored at least two goals in their last four matches against Blackpool in all competitions
- Nottingham Forest are undefeated in nine of their last 10 matches against Blackpool in all competitions
Suggested Bets
- Blackpool 19/10 vs Nottingham Forest 4/11 DNB
- Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest BTTS 3/4
- Liverpool vs Wolves BTTS 9/10
- Wolves to beat Liverpool 7/1
- Gillingham vs Leicester draw 5/1
- Gillingham (+2) on the handicap 5/4
- Hull vs Fulham BTTS 3/4
- Hull vs Fulham over 2.5 goals 4/6
