Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans
The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans meet at Arrowhead Stadium on December 21st in a clash of winning records. Kansas City is the top seed in the AFC, but the Buffalo Bills are breathing down their neck.
Houston is enjoying life with DeMeco Ryans at the helm. The Texans confirmed their playoff spot and hope to finish as high as possible in the seedings to secure a crucial home-field advantage. Can Houston claim a huge scalp in the AFC, or will the Chiefs’ quality shine through in Kansas City?
Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans Predictions
Correct score prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 21-17 Houston Texans
Both these teams have clinched a playoff spot following their victories in week 15. They now play for momentum heading into the postseason. The Kansas City Chiefs have frustrated rival fans all season with their uncanny ability to win games despite not being at their best. Some magic from Patrick Mahomes helped them to a 13-1 record. The Chiefs may have to deal without him on Saturday after an ankle injury. Carson Wentz is a great second-string and there is plenty of starting experience there.
The Houston Texans have remained steady following their 10-7 finish last season. They look primed to top the AFC South handily at 9-5. However, their inconsistent road form could cost them, going 4-3 away from home. Kansas City has not lost a game at the Arrowhead this season. Our American football prediction is for the Chiefs to overcome Mahomes’ potential absence and defeat the Houston Texans.
Mahomes’ status for this game is up in the air following a high-ankle sprain. Carson Wentz would be the stand-in and there are far worse quarterbacks to rely on. The former Super Bowl champion has a 2-0 record against the Texans. Wentz can take this offence through the game, but the Chiefs will be reliant on their defence to avoid a second loss this campaign.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes considered week to week with right ankle injury. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/S5eXEki2B4
— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Kansas City’s defence has been their shining light this season. They average just 306.9 offensive yards allowed per game. Only four teams average better. That has carried them through some tough games when their offence struggled. Houston averages fewer offensive yards per game than the Chiefs and another strong showing can help cover up some of that lost Mahomes Magic if he misses out.
The Texans have been unsteady on the road in 2024. Their biggest struggles have come against teams like the Chiefs, losing to the 10-4 Green Bay Packers and 12-2 Minnesota Vikings. They also suffered a disappointing loss to the New York Jets. None of that will fill the Texans with confidence. The Chiefs have a 7-0 home record this season and are one of just two teams yet to have lost in their backyard. Add in that Houston has only defeated the Chiefs once in the last seven years and this looks like a gruelling matchup for DeMeco Ryan’s team.
Houston should not be underestimated. Their surprise turnaround last season has proven not to be a fluke, even without Derrick Henry. The Texans’ defence has been the bedrock this season. They have a pair of pass rushers leading the charge. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are wreaking havoc on QBs, boasting an incredible 22.5 sacks between them. If they can unsettle a banged-up Mahomes or a second-string Wentz early in the game, Houston is in with a shot of handing the Chiefs their first home loss in 2024.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans Betting Tips
Moneyline
The news of Patrick Mahomes’ injury has seen NFL betting odds become volatile for this game. Houston is the favourite at 8/11, but any news of Mahomes’ involvement could see those odds switch right up to kickoff. However, the Chiefs can still snatch a victory with Wentz starting. Plus-money odds on the number one seed in the conference who is undefeated at home is too good to turn down. Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win, worth 21/20.
Player Props
The Chiefs’ running corps is even deeper since Isiah Pacheco’s return from injury. Kareem Hunt was the man to step up in his absence and his performances have been excellent. The seven-year veteran is averaging just under 60 yards per game and has five touchdowns in 2024. He will be heavily involved in a matchup we expect to be run-heavy. Bet on Hunt to score a touchdown in the game.
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Over/Under
The total for this game is 40.5 with our online bookmaker. Mahomes’ potential absence will probably inform this line, but both team’s defences are notably strong. This should be a competitive game. With 22mph winds forecast, we’ll likely see a heavy run game. However, both sides have excellent run defences. Bet on under 40.5 points in the game.
Spread
The Chiefs are +2.5 underdogs in this game. Once again, this is a line dependent on the news of Mahomes’ injury. This game looks set to be tight no matter who plays under centre for the Chiefs. The Texans are inconsistent at 3-3-1 against the spread on the road. Take the Chiefs at +2.5, worth 9/10 for anyone betting on American football.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans Head-To-Head and Key Stats
These teams last met in December 2022 at NRG Stadium. Kansas City ran out 30-24 winners on the road after another excellent Patrick Mahomes performance. He finished with 336 passing yards for two touchdowns and completed 36 of his 41 passing attempts. He also reached the end zone to secure a rushing touchdown of his own. Travis Kelce finished with 105 receiving yards and Isiah Pacheco starred at running back with 86 yards along the ground.
The Texans struggled to get things moving on offence, with Davis Mills completing just 50% of his passing attempts but took advantage of some questionable defending. Mills finished with 121 passing yards for two touchdowns. However, Houston’s defence failed to contain Mahomes and fell to a 1-12-1 record. Their fortunes have turned around handsomely since then.
DeMeco Ryans’ team has been in fine form this season, securing a playoff appearance for the second year in a row. Their steadfast defence has impressed the most with only three teams allowing fewer yards this season. Defensive end Danielle Hunter is second in the league with 12 sacks and his pass-rushing partner Will Anderson Jr. isn’t far behind with 10. That defensive prowess was on show in their last outing, where they beat the Miami Dolphins 20-12.
The Texans brushed off Miami despite a relatively average offensive performance. CJ Stroud managed two passing touchdowns to Nic Collins from 131 yards as Houston’s run game struggled to get going. Joe Mixon finished with 23 rushing yards from 12 carries and led through the air with just 33 yards from five receptions. An excellent performance from Houston’s defensive backs helped pull off the victory. They pulled in three interceptions from Tua Tagovailoa and stuffed the Dolphins running game.
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The Chiefs are flying high with the best record in the league at 13-1. Coach Andy Reid hasn’t been afraid to win ugly in 2024, showing championship grit to grind out victories. Their defence has also shone this season. They have allowed 306.9 offensive yards per game, the fifth-best in the league. Kansas City’s defensive strength was on show again in their most recent game, a 21-7 victory on the road against the Cleveland Browns.
They terrorised Browns quarterback Jameis Winston. He was sacked five times as the defensive backfield pulled in three interceptions. Backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson stepped in and threw an interception of his own, taking the Chiefs’ total to four for the day. Mahomes threw for 159 yards and two touchdowns, as the visitors’ excellent defensive showing carried them to victory.
