Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez Preview
Daniel Rodriguez and Kevin Holland meet in welterweight action on June 19th on an exciting UFC 318 card. Both men bring fireworks to their fights, and this could be a show-stealer at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.
These fighters are on a two-fight win streak, and a victory here could send them surging into the top 10 rankings. Can Rodriguez make it a hat-trick in New Orleans, or will Rodriguez continue his resurrection at 170 lbs?
Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez Predictions
Fight prediction: Kevin Holland via submission
One of our strongest MMA predictions this weekend sees Kevin Holland continuing his hot streak at welterweight with a win over Daniel Rodriguez. This clash promises fireworks on the feet, but if it hits the mat, Holland has a clear edge. Rodriguez is a tough, volume-heavy striker with grit and durability. But Holland’s length, creativity, and underrated ground game make him a real threat in all areas.
Kevin Holland will use his reach to dictate the tempo against Rodriguez. He will have a big 7” range advantage in this fight. His unpredictable striking and length will prevent Rodriguez from entering the pocket. Holland’s teep and low kicks are very effective tools in forcing his opponents back. His straight punches are stiff and equally as effective in keeping his opponents from initiating exchanges.
Rodriguez is at his most dangerous in the pocket. Holland can stop him from stepping in by circling off the cage and avoiding brawls. That unorthodox style will frustrate his opponent, creating awkward angles and throwing him off with level changes, potentially forcing him to over-commit.
Trailblazer will punish Rodriguez for any overcommitment or recklessness. He can also take advantage if he is gassed from chasing, given his significant reach advantage. Holland can catch him with slick counter punching or level changes to take the fight to the mat. His jiu-jitsu is excellent and an underrated part of his game. Holland’s best route to victory is mixing up his offence, staying composed, and capitalising when Rodriguez leaves openings in scrambles or gets stuck on the outside.
Rodriguez will look to keep things standing and push the pace with boxing combinations. However, he’s hittable and has struggled against longer, rangier opponents. Holland’s 81” reach will be a problem. If he mixes in kicks and keeps Rodriguez at range, he can control the striking exchanges. Rodriguez’s takedown defence has also been shaky at times, and if Holland decides to grapple, he can exploit that vulnerability.
Kevin Holland’s grappling has become one of the sharpest weapons in his arsenal. As a black belt under Travis Lutter, he combines solid scrambling, strong positional control, and slick submission setups that have closed a few eyes in the division. Just last month, he demonstrated that skill emphatically against Vicente Luque. The welterweight locked in a textbook brabo choke in the second round. Holland doesn’t rely on brute strength; instead, he uses leverage and timing to capitalise on opponents’ mistakes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ7FtyYDP4c&pp=ygUNa2V2aW4gaG9sbGFuZNIHCQnNCQGHKiGM7w%3D%3D
In this fight, once he smells fatigue or zone changes from Daniel Rodriguez, expect him to initiate takedowns or bait a level change. From there, Holland’s top control and submission transitions could overwhelm Rodriguez. There is a high chance we will see another highlight reel finish from Trailblazer.
For Rodriguez to win, he’ll need to turn this into a gritty, close-range slugfest. He thrives when he can pressure opponents and outwork them with volume. Staying inside Holland’s reach and forcing phone-booth exchanges could throw Holland off rhythm. However, the longer he remains at range or ends up on his back, the more dangerous this fight becomes for D-Rod.
We’re backing Kevin Holland to finish the fight, outworking Rodriguez on the ground and nullifying his entries with the reach advantage. Holland has plenty of tools to end fights, but we lean towards a submission. He’ll frustrate Rodriguez early with movement and reach, then either jump on a mistake in a scramble or look for a submission once the fight hits the mat.
Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez Fight Outcome
This matchup is likely to be a back-and-forth affair early, but Kevin Holland’s length, creativity, and evolving grappling arsenal should give him the edge as the fight wears on. Rodriguez will look to push the pace with boxing combinations, trying to close the distance and make it a close-quarters scrap.
But Holland’s 7-inch reach advantage, plus his sharp straight shots, teep kicks, and movement, will keep Rodriguez from settling into his rhythm. Expect Holland to frustrate Rodriguez at range and prevent those high-volume bursts from landing cleanly.
If the fight hits the ground, that’s where things could shift heavily in Holland’s favour. Rodriguez has struggled with takedown defence and hasn’t faced many high-level submission threats in recent bouts. Holland, on the other hand, is coming off a second-round brabo choke win over Vicente Luque, showcasing exactly how dangerous he can be once he establishes top position.
His black belt pedigree and opportunistic style on the mat make him a serious threat once the action leaves the feet. We’re backing Holland to gradually take over, exploit Rodriguez’s defensive lapses, and end it with a submission once the opportunity arises.
Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez Betting Tips
- Method of Victory – Kevin Holland via submission: Kevin Holland has so many tools to end this fight, but we sway towards a second consecutive submission win for Trailblazer. He has a clear advantage over Rodriguez on the mat, with D-Rod defending just 63% of his takedowns in the UFC. Holland won’t struggle getting him to the ground and will use his black belt in jiu-jitsu to find the submission from there. Bet on Holland to win via submission, worth 13/5.
- Round Betting – Kevin Holland in Round 2: Holland often uses the first round to download information and time his entries. Against Vicente Luque, we saw him remain composed before seizing his moment in the second round with a brabo choke. Rodriguez is durable, but if Holland can start finding his rhythm late in the first round, round two is where he’ll turn up the heat. Whether it’s a sharp right hand or a submission off a scramble, it is prime finishing territory for Trailblazer. Back Holland to win in Round 2, worth 18/5 for those betting on the UFC this weekend.
- Over/Under – Under 2.5 Rounds: This is the best option for anyone betting on the over/under. Both Holland and Rodriguez are aggressive, high-output fighters who don’t shy away from a scrap. Holland has finishing ability in all areas. His striking is unorthodox and dangerous, and his submission game is underrated. Rodriguez will likely look to engage early, and that could open the door for Holland to find an opening. This fight has all the ingredients to end inside the first two rounds. Consider backing under 2.5 rounds, worth 5/8 with our online sportsbook.
Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Daniel Rodriguez’s Recent Form
Daniel Rodriguez is riding momentum into this weekend after scoring a third-round TKO of Santiago Ponzinibbio in May. That was his second straight win following a split-decision victory over Alex Morono. That snapped a three-fight skid and showed Rodriguez’s growth in finishing fights rather than sitting on decisions. Rodriguez has proven resilient against top names like Kelvin Gastelum, Neil Magny, and Ian Machado Garry. Only three of his five losses came via finish.
Sitting at 19‑5 (9 KOs, 4 SUBs), the 38-year-old southpaw maintains a high-volume, boxing-heavy style built on crisp hands and toughness. He’s known for pressuring opponents and letting combinations accumulate damage over rounds. Against Ponzinibbio, Rodriguez dropped him with a sharp left hook late in Round 2 and finished the job early in Round 3. His current two-fight streak, including back-to-back finishes, shows he’s regaining confidence and form.
Rodriguez’s Previous Five Fights
- Won: Santiago Ponzinibbio via TKO (RD 3)
- Won: Alex Morono via Split Decision
- Lost: Kelvin Gastelum via Unanimous Decision
- Lost: Ian Machado Garry via TKO (RD 1)
- Lost: Neil Magny via Submission (RD 3)
Kevin Holland’s Recent Form
Kevin Holland has faced elite names like Khamzat Chimaev, Stephen Thompson, and Jack Della Maddalena. Despite mixed results, he continues to evolve. Incredibly, this will be his fourth fight in 2025. Trailblazer is known for his unorthodox striking and constant in-fight chatter, but his jiu-jitsu game often flies under the radar. He holds a black belt under Travis Lutter and has nine career submissions, including slick finishes over Vicente Luque and Michael Chiesa.
Holland enters this fight on a 28-13 (14 KOs, 9 Sub) record, fighting on 42 occasions despite still being just 32. He is one of the most active fighters in the UFC and boasts the second most Performance of the Night bonuses in UFC history. Trailblazer has looked dangerous since his return to welterweight. A win here could see him move into the top 10 and earn a title eliminator fight.
Holland’s Previous Five Fights
- Won: Vicente Luque via Submission (RD 2)
- Won: Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision
- Lost: Reinier de Ridder via Submission (RD 1)
- Lost: Roman Dolidze via TKO (Corner Stoppage End of RD 1)
- Won: Michał Oleksiejczuk via Technical Submission (RD 1)
