Padraig McCrory vs Leonard Carrillo Preview
Belfast’s homegrown hero Padraig McCrory has another fight this weekend. He’ll face Leonard Carrillo at the SSE Arena on Friday, November 1st. McCrory is hoping to get back in the winning column after suffering the first loss of his professional career. He has a decent chance against Carrillo.
This is a clash between two veterans in front of the passionate Belfast boxing crowd. One man’s night will probably end early. McCrory is a big favourite, but Carrillo has dangerous knockout power. He must mind his Ps and Qs if he wants the referee to raise his hand.
Padraig McCrory vs Leonard Carrillo Key Stats and Head-to-Head
There’s little doubt that McCrory sees this matchup as a winnable comeback fight. The 36-year-old has an 18-1 record. He won nine of his fights by knockout but suffered a TKO loss in his last fight against Edgar Berlanga. That was the first defeat of his professional career.
That Berlanga defeat aged better than many people expected. The undercooked Puerto Rican performed admirably in a loss against Canelo Álvarez. McCrory believes he can get back into contention with three straight victories. He thinks Carrillo is a beatable opponent and will feel confident ahead of this one.
A Colombian native, Carrillo currently lives and trains in Spain. At 35, he’s a year younger than McCrory. Carrillo has a 17-5 record with an eye-catching 16 knockout victories for a 94% KO rate. However, a closer look at his record shows that not all is as it seems. He’s coming off a victory over the 8-9-4 Luis Guillermo Berrio. Meanwhile, he’s lost four of his last six fights. Three of those defeats came by KO/TKO.
Carrillo is a southpaw and possesses devastating knockout power. This is something that McCrory must be wary of because the Colombian could be an awkward opponent. However, it’s also true that Carrillo’s highlight reel moments mostly came against limited opposition. This inflates the numbers on his record.
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McCrory fights out of an orthodox stance. He’s three centimetres taller than the Colombian. ‘The Hammer’ has completed 96 rounds throughout his career compared to Carrillo’s 82. McCrory has probably fought better opposition than Carrillo, too. However, some analysts previously criticised his failure to test himself against top opponents before Berlanga.
Dee Walsh is McCrory’s long-term trusted trainer. The pair have been working on McCrory’s speed since his sixth-round defeat against Berlanga. That was a chastening night for McCrory, who beat the count after a devastating knockdown. However, his corner threw the towel in to protect him from himself. Now he’s hoping to prove that he’s still a top boxer.
Padraig McCrory vs Leonard Carrillo Predictions
Fight Prediction: Padraig McCrory to win by TKO
There’s little doubt in our minds that McCrory will win this boxing match. This is his comeback fight in front of his hometown fans. He wants to make a statement and prove that he’s still got more to give despite entering the twilight years of his career.
That’s why our boxing prediction is that McCrory will win this fight. We’ll go even further and say that he’ll win by TKO. The Irishman has a 50% knockout rate and should increase this against Carrillo. He’s a classier operator than his Colombian opponent and should find his chin.
Three of Carrillo’s losses came by knockout with all of those happening since 2020. Chins don’t magically heal themselves, so he’s taking an enormous risk by agreeing to fight McCrory. The Irishman should have the technical ability to piece up Carrillo before ending his night early.
A couple of variables make this fight more interesting. First, it’s a battle between a southpaw and an orthodox boxer. This can be tricky, but it shouldn’t prove too awkward for McCrory. He has experience dealing with unorthodox opponents.
However, he has suffered the first knockout loss of his career. He also knows that Carrillo has KO power in his fists. There’s a small chance he may be gun-shy and take an overly defensive approach. We don’t think this will be the case because he’s fighting in front of his adoring fanbase. It’s also not in his character to shell up.
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We predict that a finish will come in the seventh or eighth round. McCrory may try to work Carrillo’s body and force him to drop his hands. Then he can land a devastating combination and grab an impressive victory. Fighting Berlanga was a significant jump in class. But now he’s going back down to face a very average regional boxer.
Check out the live betting markets during this match. Maybe Carrillo will press forward aggressively in the first couple of rounds and land a scorching left hand. The odds could shift favourably in this case. McCrory is extremely tough, so we’d back him to survive an early onslaught.
Padraig McCrory vs Leonard Carrillo Betting Tips
Padraig McCrory is a significant favourite to win this boxing match on our online sportsbook. The Belfast native is available at 1/20. This isn’t very lucrative because a successful €10 stake would only make a €0.50 profit.
Betting on McCrory is the wiser option because we don’t give Carrillo much hope of winning this bout. The Colombian falters whenever he fights boxers with decent records. A victory over McCrory would be a career-best achievement for the Spain-based athlete. Nothing is impossible in boxing, but we don’t see it happening.
Luckily, there are plenty of boxing betting markets to choose from to make this fight more exciting. A wager on the fight result isn’t very rewarding, so consider selecting the method of victory instead. We favour McCrory to win this fight by knockout. He only has one finish in his past five fights. However, this was after an escalation in opposition quality.
McCrory previously rode a five-point KO/TKO streak before this. He’s facing an opponent in Carrillo who has suffered multiple finishes throughout his career. This is a golden opportunity for him to grab another highlight reel knockout in front of his fans.
Carrillo is a sizeable 15/2 underdog in this SSE Arena main event. A €10 bet on the Colombian would make €75 if successful. However, it would be the upset of the weekend. This could be an excellent opportunity to apply our welcome bonus, so there’s no extra risk.
If Carrillo wins, it’s likely to come by knockout. Almost all his finishes came through this method of victory. He has power, so McCrory must respect him. Otherwise, a shock could be on the cards. McCrory took damage against Berlanga, so his durability may be an issue in his comeback bout. He’s no spring chicken at 36, his defence must be on point.
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Over-under bets are another good option for boxing matches. We predict this fight will go over five rounds and under ten. If you’re picking a finish, you could opt for grouped-round betting. This is where you select up to three rounds where the knockout could occur. Another option is to choose the individual round. The odds will be more lucrative, but the risk is much higher.
There’s plenty more boxing action this weekend. An eye-catching 112-pound bout sees two English fighters square off. Check our Liam Davies vs Shabaz Masoud predictions and betting tips. Meanwhile, Robson Conceição fights O’Shaquie Foster in a WBC super-featherweight title fight. This rematch is a grudge fight after a controversial decision in their first meeting. Consider making an accumulator with all your favourite fights from this weekend’s action.
Padraig McCrory vs Leonard Carrillo Outcome
This fight is all about getting back in the win zone for McCrory. There won’t be much tangible reward beyond refocusing his mind and enhancing his record. However, this is crucial from a psychological perspective. A victory in Belfast over Carrillo would also give his loyal fans something to cheer about.
McCrory wants to prove that he has a title surge in him. He told the media this week he thinks he can get a title fight with three wins. Canelo Álvarez has cleared out the super-middleweight division, so he may not be wrong. It’s also worth noting that McCrory is working as a personal trainer, so boxing isn’t his full focus these days. Fans should enjoy watching him while they can because he doesn’t have long left.
