Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Preview
Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato meet in light heavyweight action at the UFC Apex on May 18th at 1:00 am. Craig is hoping to end a three-fight slide with his UFC career on the line, while Bellato is looking to continue his ascendancy in the promotion.
Bellato’s last fight ended in a controversial draw, and the Brazilian will want to put any doubts that he is next up with a convincing victory in Las Vegas. Can Bellato recover, or will Craig prove there is still life left in his veteran career?
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Predictions
Fight prediction: Bellato via KO/TKO
One of our best MMA predictions is for Rodolfo Bellato to win dominantly at the UFC Apex.
Bellato, at 28 years old, boasts an impressive record of 7 wins by knockout, 4 by submission, and 1 by decision. He has demonstrated a balanced fighting style, effectively combining striking and grappling. His knockout power is evident, thanks to several first-round finishes, showcasing his ability to end fights early.
Bellato’s striking is precise and powerful, while his grappling is versatile, including some dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu submissions. This adaptability will help against a fighter like Craig, who is very dangerous on the ground but has glaring weaknesses in his striking.
The Brazilian’s strategy should focus on exploiting Craig’s striking vulnerabilities while maintaining distance to avoid clinches or ground exchanges. Utilising his superior striking, Bellato can aim to control the stand-up game. He can land significant strikes to accumulate damage and potentially set up a knockout. Should the fight go to the ground, Bellato’s defensive grappling skills will be crucial in neutralising Craig’s submission attempts. By staying composed and executing a well-rounded game plan, Bellato can capitalise on Craig’s weaknesses and secure a victory.
Bellato’s defensive skills are also noteworthy. He has a solid takedown defence, successfully defending 100% of takedown attempts in his UFC career, including his fights on the Contender Series. Trator can effectively neutralise Craig’s attempts to bring the fight to the ground, maintaining control and dictating the pace. His ability to stop takedowns will be crucial in this matchup, as Craig’s strength lies in his grappling and submission game. However, Bearjew’s takedown accuracy sits at a poor 20% in the UFC, with the Scot too reliant on his opponents initiating in the hope he can twist them up in his guard.
For Craig to upset the odds, he must close the distance effectively, bringing the fight into his preferred realm of grappling. Employing a pressure-heavy approach, Craig can look to clinch and transition to the ground, where his submission skills can be most effective. Defensively, Craig must be cautious of Bellato’s striking, avoiding exchanges that could lead to knockout situations. By executing a strategy that emphasises his grappling strengths and mitigating Bellato’s striking advantages, Craig can create opportunities to secure a submission victory.
3 years ago today, Paul Craig stopped Jamahal Hill pic.twitter.com/inmQltgYWu
— MMA Mania (@mmamania) June 12, 2024
Bearjew could take some positives from dragging Bo Nickal to an uncomfortable decision in his last fight. However, that told us more about where Nickal is than Craig, with the American losing his most recent fight. Craig’s move back up to light heavyweight may hinder more than help, with Bearjew looking sluggish at 205 lbs. His counterstriking is mediocre at best, and Bellato can drown him with volume, keeping him moving back while hunting for a finish.
Trator’s well-rounded game and recent momentum make him the favourite heading into this matchup. His ability to defend against takedowns and control the stand-up exchanges positions him to exploit Craig’s vulnerabilities. Craig’s submission expertise remains a significant threat, but we have not seen that since his middleweight debut in 2023. Everything indicates this could be a long night for Craig, and we predict a dominant performance from the Bellato.
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Fight Outcome
Bellato will command the cage in this fight, pushing Craig back with his volume. From there, he will always be looking for the knockout punch. He has plenty of power and is a crafty boxer. If Trator can stay out of Craig’s guard, this should be a straightforward fight for the Brazilian. However, we saw in his last fight that he can make mistakes. He missed a takedown on Jimmy Crute and found himself on the bottom, eating vicious ground and pound, before being knocked down after standing up.
Rodolfo Bellato tried a takedown on Jimmy Crute and it absolutely BACKFIRED 💀
DOMINATING 1st ROUND BY CRUTE#UFC312 pic.twitter.com/vn21bgfy28
— Degenerate George (@DGen_Media) February 9, 2025
Luckily for Bellato, we have not seen anything resembling that kind of power from Craig in his UFC career. As long as he can keep the Scot against the cage, he can avoid clinches that Craig will be looking to utilise to drag him down to the mat or take his back. Pressure will be the name of the game for the Brazilian. He should not have many issues in Las Vegas as long as he puts on a professional display.
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Betting Tips
- Fight Result – Rodolfo Bellato to win: There is not a lot of value in a bet on Bellato, with the Brazilian worth 2/13. However, Craig is on a three-fight slide and is 1-5 in his previous six. There is always a danger if he can take his opponents back or catch them in his guard, but we do not see those opportunities arising in this bout. A bet on Craig is worth 18/5 if you think he can cause the upset.
- Method of Victory – Bellato via KO/TKO: This is the best way to back the favourite for anyone betting on the UFC. All Trator’s three UFC victories have come via KO/TKO since making his Contender Series debut in 2022. Craig has been finished twice in his previous three fights and has been knocked out five times in his career. MMA bets on Bellato to win via KO/TKO are worth 3/5.
- Round Betting – Bellato in Round 2: Those three knockout wins for Bellato came in round two. Caio Borralho knocked Craig out in round two in May last year. The Scottish fighter struggles against boxers, and Bellato has tonnes of power. A bet on Trator to finish Bearjew in the second round is worth 3/1 with our online sportsbook.
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Bellato Fight Stats
Rodolfo Bellato is a dynamic Brazilian light heavyweight with a well-rounded game and a growing reputation in the UFC. A product of Brazil’s competitive regional scene, Bellato turned professional in 2017 and rose to prominence through his performances in the LFA and Dana White’s Contender Series. Known for his powerful striking and opportunistic grappling, he earned his UFC contract in 2023 with a second-round TKO victory over Murtaza Talha. Since joining the promotion, Bellato has impressed with his aggression, durability, and finishing instincts.
In his official UFC debut, he overwhelmed Ihor Potieria with relentless pressure and earned another TKO win. His most recent outing was a competitive draw against Jimmy Crute at UFC 312, where he showcased improved composure and cardio over three rounds. Bellato’s diverse finishing abilities make him a constant threat. Now riding a four-fight unbeaten streak, the 27-year-old enters his next bout as a dangerous rising contender with momentum on his side. He has a record of 12-2-1 with seven KO/TKOs and four submissions. Both of his losses came via knockout.
Bellato’s Previous Five Fights
- Draw: Jimmy Crute, via Majority Draw (RD 3)
- Won: Ihor Potieria, via TKO (RD 2)
- Won: Murtaza Talha, via TKO (RD 2)
- Won: Acácio Dos Santos, via Unanimous Decision (RD 5)
- Won: Mateus Messaros, via TKO (RD 1)
Craig Fighter Stats
Paul Craig is a Scottish submission specialist and UFC veteran known for his dangerous ground game and comeback victories. Making his debut in 2016, Craig built a reputation as a finisher with a penchant for submissions. With career wins over ranked opponents like Jamahal Hill and Nikita Krylov, Craig has consistently proven his threat level when fights hit the mat. However, the 36-year-old has struggled with consistency, particularly in recent outings. He has not found stable success since dropping to middleweight.
Craig has lost four of his last five bouts, including back-to-back defeats to Caio Borralho and Bo Nickal, where his striking defence and vulnerability to pressure were exposed. His lone win during that stretch came against Andre Muniz, whom he overwhelmed with top control and ground-and-pound. Though his submission threat remains elite, Craig’s limited striking and ageing physical tools mean he enters this bout as the underdog. He will need a tactical, ground-heavy performance. He has a record of 17-9, winning 13 by submission and four by KO/TKO. Five of his losses have been knockouts, two by submission and two by decision.
Craig’s Previous Five Fights
- Lost: Bo Nickal, via Unanimous Decision (RD 3)
- Lost: Caio Borralho, via TKO (RD 2)
- Lost: Brendan Allen, via Submission (RD 3)
- Won: Andre Muniz, via TKO (RD 2)
- Lost: Johnny Walker, via TKO (RD 1)
