Dundalk vs Bohemians Predictions, Betting Tips and H2H 02/10/2026

One of our best soccer predictions is for Bohemians to defeat Dundalk, with our model showing a 45% win probability for the away side. That puts them 14 percentage points ahead of Dundalk, with the Railwaymen sitting at 31%. The Bohs have momentum behind that probability, entering this game on a four-game win streak and undefeated in six. In contrast, Dundalk arrive with no wins in their previous four. The draw sits at 24%, but momentum looks fully on the visitors' side. A 2-1 win for Bohemians fits the hosts' poor form and the visitors' away goalscoring prowess, having scored three in their last game on the road.

The goal market is the place to start. Dundalk have been involved in open football, and Bohemians are scoring freely enough to punish a defence that has struggled lately. For a steadier result bet, Bohs or draw is preferable to taking the away win on its own.

Bohemians' away attack is the standout figure, averaging 1.87 goals across 15 league trips this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of Dundalk's 32 matches, which keeps a home goal firmly in play despite their poor form. Bohs have also finished unbeaten in four of their last five, an 80% share that underlines the current gap in confidence.

The form gap is hard to ignore. Dundalk have taken one win and one draw from five, losing three while scoring seven and conceding 12. Their latest setbacks were a 3-2 defeat to Shelbourne and a 4-0 loss to St Patrick's, so the back line arrives under real pressure. Their home record is mixed rather than commanding, with six wins, three draws and seven defeats from 16 matches.

Bohemians are moving in the opposite direction. They have won four straight, beating Drogheda United 2-1, Galway United 3-2, Sligo Rovers 3-0 and Derry City 5-3. That run has produced 14 goals across their latest five fixtures. Bohs have also won nine of 15 away matches, scoring 1.87 per trip and conceding only 1.2. Dundalk can score at home, but their leaky defence and poor form overall gives the visitors a clear edge.

Bohemians hold a narrow edge across the seven listed meetings, with three wins against Dundalk's two and two draws. This season has been less straightforward. Dundalk won 2-1 away in June, Bohemians won 3-1 at Dundalk in May, and the March meeting finished 1-1. Bohs also won 2-0 on their previous trip to Dundalk in September 2024. The record is competitive enough to discourage blind faith in the favourite, but Bohemians have won two of the last three meetings staged at Dundalk.

Dundalk have no confirmed absentees, though goalkeeper Conor Kearns and midfielder Norman Garbett are doubts with knee and hamstring injuries respectively. Bohemians have no players reported absent, giving the visitors the cleaner team news heading into the fixture.

The scoring averages point towards roughly three goals. Dundalk score 1.53 per match but concede 1.66, while Bohemians produce 1.77 and allow only 1.19. That gives Bohs a 0.24 edge in attacking output and a much healthier defensive advantage of 0.47 goals per match. The visitors' numbers fit a two-goal return, yet Dundalk's own scoring rate is strong enough to support a reply. A 1-2 outcome therefore sits neatly between the season averages, rather than requiring an unusually clinical night from either side.

Late goals should be kept firmly in mind. Dundalk have scored 17 of their 49 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes, their most productive period by a distance. They have also conceded 12 in that window and another 12 immediately after half-time. Bohemians show a similar finishing kick, with 15 of 55 goals arriving in the final 15 minutes. Their main defensive weak spot comes just before the break, when 11 of 37 goals conceded have landed. The likely pressure points are therefore the closing stages of each half. If the match is level after an hour, the numbers still favour further scoring rather than a quiet finish.

The shot figures are remarkably close, but Bohemians make slightly better use of the ball. Bohs average 16.3 attempts and 5.5 on target per match, compared with Dundalk's 16.0 shots and 5.1 on target. Their accuracy rates are 34% and 32% respectively, so there is no huge finishing gap in the raw chance data. Possession is where the visitors separate themselves, averaging 59% against Dundalk's 52%. Expect Bohs to control longer passages, with Dundalk still generating enough attempts to threaten on transitions. That balance supports an away edge without suggesting the hosts will be pinned back for the full match.

Over 1.5 goals is the strongest line on the data. It has landed in 91% of Dundalk's matches and 81% of Bohemians' fixtures, producing an 86% average. The step up to over 2.5 remains appealing, with rates of 62% for Dundalk and 61% for Bohs. That near identical split gives a 62% combined card average and fits the 1-2 prediction.

Over 3.5 is less convincing at 41% and 35%, averaging 38%, so chasing a shootout asks for too much. Both teams to score is the more attractive alternative. It has landed in 75% of Dundalk matches and 65% of Bohemians games, an average of 70%. Three goals, shared between the sides, is the sensible expectation.

Dundalk play with the sharper edge, averaging 2.5 yellow cards and 11.5 fouls per match. Bohemians sit lower at 1.7 bookings and 10.4 fouls, giving combined averages of 4.2 yellows and 21.9 fouls. The red card rates are modest at 0.2 for Dundalk and 0.1 for Bohs. Corners could be lively. The hosts win 5.8 per game and the visitors 6.3, while conceding 4.6 and 4.0 respectively. Bohs have the slight corner advantage, but Dundalk's higher card rate is the clearer side market signal.

Dundalk's scoring pattern is split between a bright first half and a strong late push. They have scored 51% of their goals before the interval, yet 41% have also arrived after the 60th minute. Their defensive concentration can fade too, with 34% of goals conceded coming beyond the hour.

Bohemians bring the more persuasive current trend. They have won four matches in succession and are unbeaten across that same four-game run. Only 40% of their goals have come in the first half, while 44% have been scored after the 60th minute. That points towards patience from the visitors. If Dundalk start quickly, Bohs still have the late scoring profile to turn the match in their favour.