Ulster Rugby Vs Stade Toulousain Preview
We are in for a cracker of a rugby game this Saturday as group leaders Toulouse travel to an in-form Ulster. The Irish club will aim to build on the bonus point win last time out against Racing 92. However, Toulouse represents a much stiffer challenge for Ulster. The French side is a top contender in the competition, and they started the group stages in red-hot form.
Toulouse has collected a maximum of ten out of ten points from their two games so far. Ulster’s win last time out leaves them in the middle of the group with five points. The Irish side is counting on their crowd at Kingspan Stadium to continue being their 16th man. Across all competitions, Ulster has lost just one game at home. They will need all the help they can get as Toulouse’s last away visit saw them trounce the Harlequins 47-19.
Ulster Rugby vs Stade Toulousain Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Of course, Ulster has another motivational factor ahead of this clash. Toulouse knocked them out in last year’s competition by a solitary point. The format in last year’s competition saw the last 16 ties decided over two legs and it produced some epic match-ups. Perhaps the most exciting was Ulster v Toulouse. The first leg in France saw Ulster come away with an unlikely six-point victory. However, they played most of the game a man up after Juan Cruz Mallía was sent off after only 11 minutes.
Ulster’s victory set up a mouth-watering return leg in Belfast and both teams delivered in front of a raucous crowd. The game started at a break-neck pace, with both teams receiving a yellow card inside the first five minutes. After the dust settled, Ulster led 10-6 with Ethan McIlroy scoring the first try of the game. The home side looked like they would complete an upset, as they were ten points ahead of the French side on aggregate.
However, Toulouse’s stars decided it was time to shine. Reigning world player of the year, Antoine Dupont, linked up with his fly-half partner Romain Ntamack to set up Thomas Ramos for a try. Ntamack then got on the scoresheet himself after he intercepted a pass and raced clear for their second of the game. After McIlroy got his second try, some great kicking from Cooney and Ramos meant the visitors led 17-20 at the break.
The second half was a much more cagey affair, as both teams seemed to recognize that one mistake could be the difference. Cooney and Ramos traded penalties to keep the margin at three points. But, the turning point came when Ulster’s Tom O’Toole received a red card in the 64th minute. Cooney would kick another penalty to put six between the teams on aggregate. To win the game, Ulster just had to stop Toulouse from scoring a converted try in the last 12 minutes.
Dupont had other plans. A piece of individual magic saw him go over the line for the French side. Ramos made no mistake with the conversion and Toulouse hung on to win by the narrowest of margins, 49-50 on aggregate. So, we have all the ingredients for a cracker this Saturday night. Let’s hope we can get as good a game as both of last year’s ties.
In terms of form, both teams come into this game red-hot. Toulouse started their top 14 campaign a little shaky but has since righted the ship. They won last time out with a 45-0 thumping at home to Lyon. Their Champions Cup form couldn’t be better. They have a maximum of 10 available points and hammered both Cardiff and Harlequins. However, Ulster will represent their toughest challenge to date.
Ulster will look to make it four wins on the bounce and are coming off a historic victory away to Leinster on New Year’s Day in the United Rugby Championship. In rough conditions, Ulster ground out a 1-point victory over this year’s favourites to win the ERCC. Last time out in this competition, Ulster had a bonus point victory over top-14 leaders Racing 92 so they are coming into this tie brimming with confidence.
Usually, ERCC betting on French sides away in the Champions Cup can be a bit of a lottery. Historically, some teams treat this competition as a secondary target, especially if they do poorly in the first couple of games. That has never been the case with Toulouse, who has the most European titles in rugby.
Ulster Rugby vs Stade Toulousain Predictions
Now let’s get down to the nitty-gritty. This is a tough game to call, and that is reflected in the odds. At the time of writing, Novibet has Toulouse as the favourite with odds of 1/2. You can get Ulster as home underdogs at a very generous 7/4. Novibet has put the handicap as Ulster +4.5, meaning that they predict this one to be a tight affair.
It’s a tough one to call. Ulster had great home form all year, so to get them as +4.5 underdogs at home, in front of a sell-out crowd on a Saturday night, feels like a bargain. However, Toulouse is one of the best teams in Europe now and we know from last year that they will not fear going up to Belfast. Both play free-attacking rugby and like to get the ball out to their backs in space.
If we had to make a bet, we would lean toward Ulster mostly based on their performance last day out against Leinster. Ulster has been decent in recent years, but they have a soft underbelly. They survived Leinster throwing the kitchen sink at them in the RDS on New Year’s Day in awful playing conditions. They also need the win more than Toulouse and think the extra motivation could be the difference.
Ulster Rugby vs Stade Toulousain Betting Tips
There are plenty of angles we can approach for betting on this game of rugby. Firstly, if you wish to play it a little safer than betting Ulster straight up to win, you can take the handicap. Although Toulouse is in sparkling form, we can see this game being tight. That 4.5 handicap at 43/50 is a nice cushion and should provide a little comfort if the teams are trading penalties in the last quarter of the game.
Our favourite bet, however, is likely to be the over. While the odds are not available yet, we would bet this up to 52 points. Both these sides love to play attacking rugby and Toulouse has been lights out in their opening two games. Last time out in the Champions Cup Ulster put up 31 points while Toulouse put up 47. We expect this tie to be tighter. The conditions look like they will be dry with little breeze, resulting in a perfect night for both these sides to showcase their attacking talent. If the number is set quite high, this might be a candidate for an in-play bet. It should be evident fairly early on whether this is going to be an end-to-end game or not.
For those looking for higher odds, we would recommend Robert Baloucoune to score a try. The Ulster winger has only managed one try so far this year but scored away to Toulouse last season. With Mack Hansen ruled out of Ireland’s Six Nations campaign, Baloucoune will be desperate to get on the scoresheet to impress Ireland coach Andy Farrell. Given his dry spell, the odds should be high, so this play could be a decent long shot to play with some spare change, or maybe even your welcome bonus.
Ulster Rugby Team News and Lineup
Another aspect in Ulster’s favour for this game is they have an extra five days’ rest over their opponents. This has meant good news for Ulster coach Dan McFarland on the injury front. A squad update announced on Tuesday showed that there were no new injury concerns for the Irish province. There was welcome news as Ethan McIlroy and James Hume have now resumed full team training and are available for selection.
- Ulster predicted lineup: Kitshoff, Herring, O’Toole, Treadwell, Henderson, Rea, Reffell, Timoney, Addison, Baloucoune, Hume, McCloskey, Stockdale, Burns, and Cooney.
Stade Toulousain Team News and Lineup
Some good long-term injury news for Toulouse coach Ugo Mola is that star out-half Romain Ntamack was back on the practice field doing some individual kicking drills. The out-half got injured in a World Cup warm-up game that tragically ruled him out of the tournament. Toulouse will also be without Maxime Duprat, Thibaud Flament, and Paul Costes. We are still waiting for an update on Pierre-Louis Barassi.
- Toulouse predicted lineup: Ainuu, Marchand, Aldegheri, Arnold, Meafou, Cros, Willis, Jelonch, Mallia, Bituniyata, Delibes, Ahki, Lebel, Ramos, and Dupont.
