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Leinster Rugby vs Northampton Saints Predictions, Betting Tips, and H2H 04/05/24

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Leinster Rugby vs Northampton Saints Rugby Preview

It’s a huge week for rugby fans as it’s finally time for the European Rugby Champions Cup semifinals. Leinster will host Northampton at the legendary Croke Park stadium in Dublin. This game will take place on Saturday 04 May at 5.30 pm. The winner will face the victor of Stade Toulousain vs Harlequins at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in May.

Leinster is the only team in the tournament with a 100% winning record. They are also the favourites for this rugby match in their home city. However, Northampton will be determined to cause an upset. The English team is dangerous and will look to exploit Leinster’s two-game losing streak. There’s so much at stake in this exciting clash. 

Leinster Rugby vs Northampton Saints Head-to-Head and Key Stats

These two teams are currently enjoying strong league campaigns. Northampton is first in the English Premiership and is experiencing a revival. However, they lost their most recent game to the Harlequins, conceding six tries. They suffered a 41-32 defeat in a thrilling game of rugby for the neutral. Northampton rotated their team against their English rivals but still put out a strong line-up.

The opposite is true for Leinster, who rested all their key men in their recent URC matches in South Africa. They endured big losses against the Lions and Stormers. However, it’s impossible to read anything into these defeats. They are focusing on the upcoming game against Northampton and European Champion’s Cup glory. This was a gamble and only time will tell if it pays off.

Leinster and Northampton don’t cross paths often because they play in different leagues. However, these games are always scintillating. The Irish province famously defeated Northampton 33-22 in the 2011 Heineken Cup Final. They were 22-6 down at halftime and produced an astonishing comeback.

The last time they faced each other was almost four years ago in the group stage of the Champion’s Cup. Leinster won that game 35-19 as they dominated their opponents in Dublin. They’ve also put 35 points or more past Northampton in their last three meetings. It’s been tough for the English team, but they’re a much stronger unit now.

Online betting sees Leinster as big favourites, but it’s not a given. Northampton entered this season’s tournament off a miserable ten-game losing streak in the Champion’s Cup. They’ve turned it around and won six in a row. Suddenly they look like a force.

Sam Vesty’s team has scored more tries in the competition this season than the Irish team. They have a deadly attack and can cause a lot of damage. Tom Freeman has four tries for the Saints in Europe this season. Meanwhile, fly-half Fin Smith is the competition’s top goal kicker with 65 points.

Leinster arguably has more talented individuals. Jamison Gibson-Park is the tournament’s most effective passer. He also has the second-most tries in the competition with five. Leinster’s exciting winger Jordan Larmour has four and offers an explosive threat.

Meanwhile, they enter this game with a morale-boosting quarter-final victory over La Rochelle. The French side defeated Leinster in the past two ERCC Finals. This will give Leinster enormous confidence ahead of the game with Northampton.  

Flyhalf Ross Byrne was the man of the match against La Rochelle as he kicked 15 points. He endured criticism since replacing the retired Jonny Sexton, so Leinster will be delighted to see him in excellent form when it counts most.

Northampton defeated another Irish province, Munster, to seal their place in the semi-final. It was an impressive 24-14 victory for the English team who entered the game as favourites. However, Leinster represents a big step up in class, as they have most of the Irish international squad on their roster.

One of the big subplots is that this match will take place at Croke Park. This is because the Aviva Stadium is hosting the UEFA Europa League Final. Croke Park is Ireland’s biggest stadium with a crowd of 82,300 for this game. The passionate Irish crowd could have a tremendous influence if the game remains close in the second half.

Leinster Rugby vs Northampton Saints Predictions

Correct Score Prediction: Leinster 35-18 Northampton

Northampton is having a good season, but we still expect a dominant Leinster victory. The bookmakers agree with Leinster 1/9 favourites to beat the Premiership team at Croke Park. A €10 bet on Leinster to win would see returns of €11.11. The Saints are massive 11/2 underdogs, so the same bet would see a €55 profit.

Both teams enter this game on the back of defeats. However, the context is very different. Northampton had an enormous battle with their Premiership rivals, Harlequins. Leinster’s successive losses in South Africa didn’t bother their fans too much. That’s because they sent a second-string squad to the Southern Hemisphere.

In Fin Smith, the Saints arguably have the competition’s standout fly half. He has the second-most points in the tournament with 65. His kicking accuracy will be crucial if Northampton pulls off a shock in Ireland.

The Saints are one of the most dynamic teams in the Champion’s Cup this season. They have the second-most metres made with 3,176 and rank highly in defenders beaten. Tommy Freeman is crucial to their hopes because he has their most carries with 79. The England international also has more offloads than any other Northampton player with 11.

Leinster has completed more passes than any other team in the competition with Jamison Gibson-Park, orchestrating their attacks. Everything goes through the brilliant scrum-half. They’re also spreading scores around their team with James Lowe and Dan Sheehan scoring in recent games.

We expect Leinster to dictate this game and frustrate Northampton through their control. Their experience, outstanding individuals, and elite coaching should give them the edge over their Premiership rivals. Leinster is desperate to get another star on their jersey so they’re giving this competition their full focus.

Northampton Saints Player scoring a try

Leinster Rugby vs Northampton Saints Betting Tips 

Betting on rugby is thrilling because anything can happen. Leinster are huge favourites to make another Champion’s Cup Final. But It’s inadvisable to bet on them to win this game outright because the odds are too weak.

It may be smarter to bet on the winning margin. Betting on Leinster to win by 15 or more has odds of 4/5. This would turn a €10 stake into €18. If you think the game will be closer, a winning margin of 8 to 14 points would net a €25 profit. Leinster is also available at 1/4 to lead at half-time. A successful Northampton bet would net €30 at 3/1.

Betting on the European Rugby Champion’s Cup throws up some interesting markets. There’s never a better time to lay a stake on the outright winner. Leinster are the competition’s current favourites at 10/11, after they defeated La Rochelle. Meanwhile, Northampton are third-favourites after Toulouse at 12/1. Remember, the odds may narrow if Leinster pulls off a dominant victory at Croke Park.

Live betting is another great option. If the Saints take an unexpected early lead, it will offer bigger returns. We advise you to bet on Leinster to win the second half. Register on Novibet and receive a welcome bonus that you can use across a range of sports, including rugby.

Leinster Rugby Predicted Team News

The Irish side received a massive boost this week with the return of some big names. Garry Ringrose missed their last two Champion’s Cup games, but he’s back after a shoulder injury. Jamie Osborne has played well in Ringrose’s absence, so the returnee will probably settle for a place on the bench. But he adds to Leinster’s increased depth. Meanwhile, Jimmy O’Brien returns for the first time since January.

However, Hugo Keenan remains doubtful, with an ongoing hip injury. This makes it more likely that Leo Cullen will throw O’Brien into this game. James Ryan and Tommy O’Brien are also long-term absentees. After resting most of their starting XV in South Africa, Leinster will probably play the same line-up that crushed La Rochelle. Josh van der Flier may return in place of Will Connors.

  • Leinster predicted team: Andrew Porter, James Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Joe McCarthy, Jason Jenkins, Ryan Baird, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris, Jamison Gibson-Park, Ross Byrne, James Lowe, Jamie Osborne, Robbie Henshaw, Jordan Larmour, and Ciaran Frawley.

Northampton Saints Predicted Team News

The Saints will also avoid making too many changes after an impressive victory over Munster on April 7th. George Hendry was crucial that day for Northampton, with his two second-half tries securing victory. Phil Dowson has tough decisions to make after the gruelling defeat against Harlequins.

He rested the likes of Fin Smith and Tommy Freeman in their previous win over Leicester. But they came back in for the Harlequins defeat. It’s a catch-22 for Dowson who can’t afford to be without his best players but knows they may suffer from fatigue. Burger Odendaal was unavailable in their last game, but they’ll be hoping he’ll make the semi-final.

  • Northampton predicted team: James Ramm, Tommy Freeman, Fraser Dingwall, Burger Odendaal, Ollie Sleightholme, Fin Smith, Tom James, Emmanuel Iyogun, Curtis Langdon, Trevor Davison, Alex Moon, Alex Coles, Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam, and Sam Graham.
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