Dragons vs Connacht Rugby Preview
It’s a massive week in the United Rugby Championship with everything to play for. Dragons will host the Irish province Connacht at Rodney Parade on 27th April at 8 pm. Connacht knows that this is a must-win game if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The Irish team annihilated Zebre in the last round with a bonus point win and is within touching distance of the knockout stage. Meanwhile, the Dragons only have their pride to play for, but they’ll bring the fight to their URC rivals. Connacht are favourites in this rugby match, but it’s going to be a tough night for them on the Welsh coast. Dragons haven’t won on the road since 2022, but they’ve been much stronger at home.
Dragons vs Connacht Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
It’s been a competitive season for Connacht in the URC. They have enjoyed five more wins than the Dragons. They recently demolished Zebre in a crushing 54-16 victory and rocked Irish powerhouses Munster in January. Meanwhile, they’re also unbeaten in Wales this year after defeating Cardiff and the Scarlets.
Dragons have endured mixed fortunes in 2024 with just two wins since January. One of these also came against Zebre as they won 20-14. But their most recent game was a brutal 36-19 loss to Benetton. The Dragons left it too late for a comeback against the Italians. They were scoreless after the first half and 19 points down on the hosts. They can’t afford to make the same mistake against a hungry Connacht side.
These teams met at a similar stage of the season in 2023. Dragons hosted Connacht in a competitive clash that saw the Irish team win by two points. It was a gritty battle and the Irish team rode their luck to victory. Dragons and Connacht exchanged early tries in this game with the Welsh side taking a 20-10 lead. But then they lost Matthew Screech to a red card after a high tackle. This was a massive blow because the veteran was one of the team’s leaders. They struggled to hold Connacht back, as the Irish had a one-man advantage.
Connacht scored tries through two replacements, Jarrad Butler and Dave Heffernan. But Butler almost became the villain when he received a yellow card. Suddenly the teams had the same number of players on the field and Dragons almost stole the game. Dragons’ replacement fly-half Sam Davies was nearly the hero. He attempted an ambitious 77th-minute drop goal but agonisingly hit the post. This was an entertaining game full of drama and the result could easily have gone the other way.
Online betting sees Connacht enter this game as clear favourites, but they’ll be wary. Dragons have a poor record, but they’ve won three of their last four home games in all competitions. Rodney Parade remains a fortress and they can beat anybody on their day. But the Irish province will be up for this because they need to secure wins to keep in touch with their playoff rivals.
The Westerners have a more dynamic attack than the Dragons. They’ve scored 339 points in the URC this year compared to Dragons’ 224. J. J. Hanrahan has been Connacht’s most important player this season. The fly-half is fourth on the leading points scorers’ board with 104. He has decent competition in Jack Carty but is comfortably winning this battle.
Hanrahan’s kicking form is ominous news for the Dragons. Lloyd Fairbrother and Matthew Screech rank highly in penalties conceded with 10 and 11, respectively. This is very dangerous against one of the URC’s most prolific fly-halves. Connacht’s players have also produced impressive defensive numbers. Shamus Hurley-Langton ranks second on turnovers won with 13. Niall Murray has seven line-out steals this year as they’ve improved this part of their game.
The bad news for Dragons’ fans is that Cai Evans is a turnover machine with 10. Meanwhile, scores are a problem for the Welsh side Harrie Keddie is the only Newport player with three tries this season. Two Connacht players have five tries in the URC while Cian Prendergast has three.
The Dragons vs Connacht Rugby Predictions
Correct Score Prediction: The Dragons 16-30 Connacht Rugby
Rodney Parade is always a hostile venue for visitors, but we still expect a Connacht win. The Westerners have a standout player in J. J. Hanrahan. His assured kicking should be enough to separate these teams in a relatively tight clash. Plus, when you consider Bundee Aki breaking the lines, there is only one way this match will go.
The Dragons made life difficult for Connacht the last time they faced each other. However, they’ve had a poor season and have nothing to play for. We expect the Irish side to win this game comfortably. The bookies have set betting odds of 2/7 for an away win. This means a successful €10 bet would see returns of €12.86. If you fancy a punt on the underdogs, Dragons are available at 11/4. This time, €10 would see a big €27.50 profit. This may not be the worst bet in the world because the Dragons have found some consistency when playing at home.
Connacht has beaten the Dragons in their last couple of meetings. We expect the boot of J. J. Hanrahan to be decisive because he has been accurate with 88% of kicks off the tee. The Ireland international has the potential to make a statement against the Welsh team.
In Bundee Aki, Connacht has one of global rugby’s most dominant players. The Ireland international can score tries out of nowhere and is a World Player of the Year nominee. Aki and Hanrahan should put the Dragons to the sword.
The Dragons vs Connacht Rugby Betting Tips
Betting on rugby is always exciting. Connacht is a massive favourite to beat the Dragons this time. The odds aren’t favourable enough to bet on them to win the game outright. We think Connacht will win, but it may be tighter than the bookmakers suggest. It’s more lucrative to bet on the half-time winner. Connacht is available on the betting site at 11/20. This would turn €10 into €14.50.
We expect a tight opening, so betting on Connacht to win the first half by 1-7 points at 2/1 is another good option. Betting on Connacht to win by 8-14 points is available at a sizeable 5/2 and is in line with our score prediction. The Irish side scored over 50 points against Zebre last weekend, but that was in the comfort of Ireland. Travelling to Wales and getting over 15 points more than the hosts seems unlikely.
URC betting always throws up some interesting markets. Regarding players, Hanrahan is a good option to score over nine points. The fly-half has an excellent kicking record while the Dragons give away too many penalties. If the poor discipline of the home side continues, yellow cards could have a big impact on this game.
Live betting is always an option and may offer more rewarding returns. If the Dragons take an early lead, it would be worth betting on Connacht to make a comeback in the second half. Reduce your risk by taking advantage of the welcome bonus when registering at Novibet for the first time.
“He brought an awful lot of energy”
JJ Hanrahan chats about Matthew Devine 🟢🦅
Watch more as he previews Saturday’s game against Dragons 📺 https://t.co/NsqB18pkh2#ConnachtRugby pic.twitter.com/DFy7y7gwsC
— Connacht Rugby (@connachtrugby) April 24, 2024
Dragons Predicted Team News
It’s back to the drawing board for the Dragons after a chastening defeat against Benetton. Their poor record this season has seen them make wholesale changes in almost every game. They swapped six players in their last two matches against Benetton and Zebre. Aaron Wainwright might come in after his positive impact in Treviso. Che Hope also added fresh legs and impetus after Dai Flanagan introduced him. Matthew Screech is available and the veteran will have a big role to play if the Dragons are to break Connacht hearts.
Flanagan has big decisions to make. It’s tough to predict who will start because they make so many changes. The good news is that they haven’t picked up any more injuries.
- Dragons: Cai Evans, Rio Dyer, Steff Hughes, Aneurin Owen, Jared Rosser, Will Reed, Rhodri Williams, Rhodri Jones, Elliot Dee, Luke Yendle, Ben Carter, Matthew Screech, Aaron Wainwright, Sean Lonsdale, and Taine Basham.
Connacht Predicted Team News
The Westerners received a massive boost after Mack Hansen’s return to training. He’ll be available for their upcoming clash with Munster, but the Dragons’ game comes too early. They’ll also still be missing Byron Ralston. There were fears that J. J. Hanrahan’s hamstring might put him out of this one. However, the charismatic fly-half is available and will start at Rodney Parade. Cathal Forde is covering the position if necessary, as Jack Carty remains out of action.
Matthew Devine showed Connacht fans what he is capable of with an excellent debut against Zebre. He’s likely to keep his place against the Dragons because he was so effective. We expect Connacht to go strong and keep the same team that demolished Zebre. They can’t afford to look past the Dragons even if they have bigger tests ahead on paper.
- Connacht: Shane Jennings, John Porch, Tom Farrell, Bundee Aki, Andrew Smith, JJ Hanrahan, Matthew Devine, Jordan Duggan, Dave Heffernan, Finlay Bealham, Joe Joyce, Niall Murray, Shamus Hurley-Langton, Conor Oliver, and Sean O’Brien.
