Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo Predictions, Betting Tips and H2H 25/01/2026

Nurmagomedov vs Figueiredo Preview

The UFC returns in 2026 with a high-stakes bantamweight showdown at UFC 324, as Umar Nurmagomedov faces former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Nurmagomedov knows that a statement win here would push him firmly into contention and edge him closer to a shot at gold.

Figueiredo made a strong start to life at 135lbs, but his momentum has slowed in recent outings. A narrow split-decision victory in October offered signs of renewed confidence for the former flyweight champion, but consistency remains the question. Can “Figgy” build on that result and string together back-to-back wins, or will Nurmagomedov’s rise continue as he positions himself for a potential clash with champion Petr Yan?

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo Predictions

Fight Prediction: Nurmagomedov via decision

One of our best MMA predictions this week is for Umar Nurmagomedov to continue his journey back to bantamweight title contendership with a win over former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. The Dagestani fighter was dispatched by Merab Dvalishvili last January in his first fight for the belt. He now has a point to prove, and a victory over Mario Bautista in October saw him back to winning ways. Another win would put him right back in contention. Figueiredo’s name still carries weight in the UFC, but the ageing former champ’s best years are behind him.

Nurmagomedov is one of the most dynamic strikers in his division. He excels at mixing up his attacks, flowing seamlessly between straight punches, spinning kicks, and well-timed counters. His range management is outstanding, and he is particularly effective at fighting long, forcing opponents to overextend before punishing them on the exit. Unlike many fighters with flashy striking arsenals, Nurmagomedov does not chase finishes recklessly. He picks his moments, stays disciplined defensively, and trusts his skill set to accumulate damage over time.

What truly elevates Nurmagomedov’s game is how seamlessly his striking blends into his grappling. His cousin and trainer happens to be one of the best UFC fighters of all time, Khabib Nurmagomedov. Plus, he does not wrestle out of desperation. Instead, he uses takedowns as a control mechanism, changing levels when opponents start to sit down on their strikes or become frustrated by his movement. On the mat, he is calm, heavy on top, and content to advance position methodically rather than force submissions that are not there. That control-first mindset is likely to be crucial against a veteran like Figueiredo, who thrives in chaos.

Figueiredo remains a dangerous opponent, even at this stage of his career. His power is still very real, and his explosiveness has carried well into the bantamweight division. He is particularly threatening in the opening rounds, where his speed and aggression can overwhelm opponents who are slow to settle. His guillotine remains one of the most feared weapons in the division. Any sloppy shot from Nurmagomedov could be punished severely.

However, the concerns around Figueiredo are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. His gas tank has been inconsistent, especially when forced to work defensively or fight off his back. At 38 years old, the Brazilian is no longer as quick to reset exchanges or recover between scrambles. Against younger, high-output fighters, he has shown signs of slowing noticeably after the midpoint of fights. That is a dangerous trend against someone as composed and relentless as Nurmagomedov.

Stylistically, this matchup favours Nurmagomedov over three rounds. He is unlikely to give Figueiredo the wild exchanges he needs to land something decisive. Instead, expect Nurmagomedov to circle, jab, kick the legs and body, and selectively mix in takedowns to sap Figueiredo’s explosiveness. As the fight progresses, the Dagestani’s control and consistency should begin to separate him on the scorecards.

Over 15 minutes, the younger fighter’s movement, discipline, and superior gas tank should tell. This feels like a fight where Nurmagomedov makes a clear statement without taking unnecessary risks. Expect a controlled, professional performance that sees him win rounds rather than chase a finish, firmly re-establishing himself in the bantamweight title conversation.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo Betting Odds

Best Bets for Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo Betting Tips

• Method of Victory – Nurmagomedov via decision: This is the best way to bet on Nurmagomedov. The Dagestani fighter is an overwhelming 1/20 favourite for this bout, and backing the method of victory should extend those odds. Just one of Nurmagomedov’s previous six fights has finished inside the distance, and Figgy has technically only been finished once in his career. His last two stoppages came via a knee injury and a doctor’s stoppage. Umar is not known for his power, and this fight should go all three rounds. 
• Over/Under – Over 2.5 rounds: This is a strong MMA betting angle for anyone expecting Nurmagomedov to stick to a disciplined, low-risk game plan. Umar has never been a fighter who rushes for early finishes, particularly against experienced opposition. He is far more comfortable winning minutes, controlling position, and letting rounds slip away from his opponent through consistency rather than damage alone. Figueiredo, for all his explosiveness, has proven extremely durable throughout his career. With Nurmagomedov expected to manage distance and mix in takedowns, this fight has all the hallmarks of going deep. Back the over if you are betting on the over/under.
• UFC 324 Multiple – Pimblett to win by KO/TKO and Nurmagomedov to win via decision: The first UFC event of the year is a big one with Paddy Pimblett vs Justin Gaethje headlining for the interim lightweight title. This is a great way to back both men with our online sportsbook. Pairing these two outcomes together offers a strong way to boost returns while staying aligned with the most realistic paths to victory. This is a smart multiple for bettors looking to combine value with clear stylistic edges across the card.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo Head-To-Head and Key Stats

These fighters are on different trajectories. Nurmagomedov is still one of the best fighters in the division despite his loss to Dvalishvili, and he looks to be on a collision course with current champion Petr Yan down the line. Figuieredo, on the other hand, is in the twilight of his career, but still has gas left in the tank.

Nurmagomedov’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Umar Nurmagomedov comes into this fight with a professional MMA record of 19-1. He has a résumé that combines striking flair with elite grappling control. After beginning his UFC run with a string of wins and a defining victory over Cory Sandhagen, Nurmagomedov earned his first title shot against Merab Dvalishvili in January 2025. However, he came up short, losing by unanimous decision over five rounds. Since then, he got back on track with a solid unanimous decision victory over Mario Bautista at UFC 321.

Nurmagomedov’s skill set is diverse. He mixes crisp straight punches, spinning attacks, and well-timed counters while maintaining excellent range management. His wrestling is used as a control tool rather than a desperation tactic. That allows him to dictate where the fight takes place and neutralise power shots. 

Once the fight hits the mat, he is calm and methodical, advancing position without forcing risky submissions. His cardio and ability to maintain pace deep into fights set him apart from many in the bantamweight ranks. As a result, Nurmagomedov is far more comfortable winning rounds steadily than hunting early finishes.

Figueiredo’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Deiveson Figueiredo enters this matchup with a long and decorated career, winning the UFC flyweight title twice. His professional record stands at 25-5-1. Figueiredo’s recent form has been mixed. After debuting at bantamweight with a unanimous decision win over Rob Font and following that with a submission victory over Cody Garbrandt in 2024, he faced stiffer challenges late last year. Losses to Petr Yan by decision and Cory Sandhagen by TKO exposed vulnerabilities against top-level opposition at bantamweight. However, Figueiredo’s most recent split-decision win over Montel Jackson showed he still has toughness and finishing instincts late in his career. 

Deiveson Figueiredo’s style is built on aggression, explosiveness, and controlled chaos. At his best, he thrives in high-intensity exchanges where his power and physicality can overwhelm opponents. He carries a genuine knockout threat in both hands and is particularly dangerous when stepping into range with short hooks and overhands. What separates Figueiredo from many power punchers is how comfortable he is transitioning from striking into grappling exchanges. He actively hunts guillotines, front chokes, and scrambles off takedown attempts, punishing opponents who change levels carelessly. 

His willingness to stand his ground and trade can force opponents into mistakes, especially early, when his speed and explosiveness are at their peak. However, that same aggression can work against him over time. Figueiredo often commits fully to exchanges, expending energy quickly and leaving himself open to being out-worked by more disciplined, high-output fighters who can manage distance and pace.