Vicente Luque vs Ian Garry Preview
UPDATE: Ian Garry has withdrawn from UFC 296 after developing pneumonia. The MMA event will still take place, but it’s too late to schedule a stand-in fighter for Vincente Luque. Neither Luque nor Garry will fight this weekend.
Irish MMA fans are in for a treat this week as Vicente Luque fights Ian Garry on Sunday. The pair face off at UFC 296 in what will be Garry’s fourth fight in the calendar year. Both fighters enter this contest after defeating their last opponent by a unanimous decision four months ago. A win here will send either fighter higher up the rankings, edging one step closer to a title fight. The event will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada, at the T-Mobile Arena.
The main card action begins at around 3:00 AM GMT, on Sunday, December 17. Luque heads into this contest with a 22-9-1 record, half of his victories coming by knockout. The experienced Brazilian will have his work cut out for him as the 26-year-old from Portmarnock has an undefeated record. Garry has 13 wins, zero losses, and seven victories by knockout in his career. He has fought on the main card before at a UFC event, but this could be his biggest challenge yet.
Vicente Luque vs Ian Garry Previous Fights and Key Stats
Looking at Vicente Luque’s stats, he has enjoyed a fantastic and successful career. 11 of his wins have come by knockout and eight victories have been a submission. Across 32 fights, Luque has ended the contest inside the first round on 13 occasions. Comparing the two fighters, Machado has a height advantage, standing 6ft3 compared to the 5ft11 “Silent Assassin”. However, it’s the Brazilian that has a one-inch reach advantage with 75.5 inches.
Since 2022, Luque has only featured in three fights, two of which ended in defeat. In April 2022, he lost by a unanimous decision to Belal Muhammad. In his next contest, Geoff Neal defeated Luque in the third round. During the first round of the fight, Luque had his opponent against the side of the Octagon. But a quick one-two from Neal turns the Brazilian’s legs into jelly. After a few more exchanges, Neal lands another blow, this time sending Luque to the mat.
After a bloody first round, Luque improved but still looked second best. In the third round, Luque took one heck of a beating before finally going down with two minutes left in the round. He took some heavy blows and when his feet wobbled, Neal went in for the kill. Luque, with his back against the fence, hung on and tried to fight back before Neal ended the fight by KO. After the fight, the medical team confirmed Luque suffered a brain haemorrhage and would be out of action for some time. After over a year out, Luque came back to fight Rafael dos Anjos, another UFC veteran. The fight went the distance, but Vicente Luque was the worthy winner by a unanimous decision.
Ian Garry, being six years Luque’s junior, only has 13 fights under his belt, but he remains undefeated. Three of his most recent fights have gone the distance, with the Irishman winning on the scorecard thanks to the judge’s decision. As we have mentioned, he has already fought three times this calendar year. The first clash was in March when “The Future” took on Song Kenan in UFC 285, also in Nevada. The Future ended the fight late in the third round with a flurry of punches that dropped Kenan to the mat.
Garry’s next fight was special, earning him the performance of the night. He defeated the heavily tattooed Daniel Rodriguez in the first round after delivering a powerful head kick. The fighters were finding each other out early in the round, with Garry certainly looking the more dangerous. But with two minutes and 15 seconds on the clock, a surprise head kick sent Rodriguez to the floor. He tried to cover up, but the referee had no choice but to stop the fight.
Looking at the most recent fight, Garry consistently dropped Neil Magny with a devastating leg kick. He would fire a shot to the back of Magny’s calve and watch the 6ft3 American drop to the ground. The second round was not much better for Neil, as his right leg took a vicious beating throughout. At several points during the contest, the American could not stand on his leading leg. The fight was one-sided throughout, with the Irishman looking the more dangerous. He nearly won at the end and was most likely seconds away from a submission, but the bell saved Magny.
Vicente Luque vs Ian Garry Prediction
Predicting a UFC fight is never easy, as fights can change at the drop of a hat. If you bet on any mixed martial arts event, you will know a winner can be decided by a lucky blow, a surprise kick, or one mistake when both fighters are on the ground. However, we can only see this fight going one way. We predict Ian Machado Garry will defeat Vicente Luque.
Looking at the betting odds, it appears the bookmakers agree with our prediction. Ian Garry is the clear favourite with odds of 1/4 if the Irishman wins the contest by any method. That means a €100 bet will only return €125 if he is successful. The Brazilian is certainly the underdog, and he has significantly more rewarding odds. At 14/5, betting €100 will return as much as €380 if the veteran has another special moment up his sleeve.
Having watched both competitors’ recent fights, we believe Garry will be the winner. Luque did a great job in his return fight, but it was against a 39-year-old with just under 50 appearances at mixed martial arts events. Not to discredit dos Anjos, but the man made his debut at UFC 91 back in 2008. Sure, he could still beat us up, but he is certainly towards the end of his fighting career. Our prediction sees Garry winning by knockout or TKO before the end of the final round.
For those of you who don’t know, in the UFC, not all main event fights are five-round bouts. Non-championship deciding fights have three five-minute rounds, which gives Garry less time to get the job done. In his last fight, he probably would have submitted his opponent had “The Future” attempted a submission earlier in the round. Determined to knock his opponent out, Garry showed perhaps a bit of immaturity in the way he ended the fight. In case you missed it, the Irishman flipped off his opponent seconds after the last bell.
We love a bit of fire in MMA, but there is no doubt Ian Garry must watch himself this weekend. Luque might be his senior, but that experience counts in the octagon. He will know how powerful the young Irish fighter is and look to get under his skin and perhaps outwork him on the floor. “The Future” looked wary to challenge his last opponent on the mat, so he must keep a cool head for our prediction to come true.
Vicente Luque vs Ian Garry Betting Tips
Betting on the UFC is never easy, but we feel confident heading into this bout. Currently, the best wager available is for Garry to win outright. That means the bet wins if he knocks out Luque or if it goes down to the judge’s scorecard. If you are wondering why we favour the Irishman, he looks razor-sharp and fit as a fiddle. In his last few fights, nobody has kept up with his relentless pace, and he often looks completely unfazed at the end of a fight.
This fight could have come too soon for Machado, who proved that he was looking for a challenge after dispatching Magny. Luque might not be in the best form of his career, but he can certainly take a beating. The only way we could see Garry losing this fight is by making a mistake and ending up on the mat. Or trying to finish the fight too soon and getting caught by a deadly blow. If he manages his distance like he did in August, we think his undefeated record will stay intact.
Betting on a knockout in this fight is a little risky, but it could be worth it this weekend. The odds are heavily in favour of the Irishman, so you will need to consider other options to maximise your returns. He has seven knockout victories already in his career, and the Brazilian’s last defeat was by a knockout. You never know how a fight will end. But our gut says to back the young man, and he will try to end the fight early.
Vicente Luque vs Ian Garry Outcome
A fight like this is a huge stepping stone for both fighters. If Luque wins, then suddenly his name is back in contention for title fights in the future. If Machado gets the job done, he could jump to a massive fight quicker than any of us would have expected. However, one thing needs to be said. Ian Machado looks sharp. Any fighter who can avoid attacks and land devastating blows on his opponent is going to succeed in the UFC. It might be too early to jump on the hype train, but if Garry wins this one, there could be a big fight in his near future.
