Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland Preview
Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland meet in a welterweight clash at UFC 316, live from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, from 3:00 am. Both men enter on inconsistent runs, and a victory here could be incredibly important to their future in the UFC.
These fighters are battle-hardened with some incredible wins and vicious losses on their records. This has the potential to be a show stealer in New Jersey, but who will have their hand raised at the end?
Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland Predictions
One of our most confident MMA predictions this week is for Kevin Holland to secure a victory over Vicente Luque in their welterweight clash. While Luque is a gritty veteran with a history of barnburner performances, Holland’s dynamic skill set, reach, and fight IQ make him the favourite to get a much-needed victory.
At 6’3″ with an 81-inch reach, Holland is one of the rangiest fighters in the welterweight division. His unorthodox striking, quick reflexes, and ability to throw effective punches from odd angles make him a nightmare matchup for a pressure-heavy fighter like Luque. The Brazilian tends to wade forward and absorb punishment to deliver his own offence. That style has served Luque well in the past, but recent bouts have shown the wear and tear catching up to him. This was particularly clear in his 2022 knockout loss to Geoff Neal and his laboured win over Rafael dos Anjos.
Holland remains a dangerous and ever-evolving threat. With 14 knockouts and eight submission victories on his record, Holland is a finisher. What makes him especially dangerous in this matchup is his ability to blend striking with opportunistic grappling. He can do so without over-committing or getting caught in risky exchanges. Against Luque, that will be vital. Luque thrives in chaos, but Holland has shown an ability to maintain composure under fire. He can pick opponents apart with accurate shots from range while doing so.
Defensively, Holland’s improvement is evident. He used to rely heavily on his athleticism to avoid danger. Recent performances have highlighted his sharpened takedown defence and more measured approach to high-level opponents. Against grapplers like Michael Chiesa, Holland displayed intelligent counter-wrestling and composed ground control. Luque does have a strong submission game, especially with D’Arce chokes. However, he’ll have difficulty closing the distance on Holland, particularly without absorbing serious damage on the way in.
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What’s also important here is Luque’s striking defence, or lack thereof. He’s been one of the most hittable fighters at 170 lbs. The Brazilian absorbs over 5 significant strikes per minute. That’s a massive red flag against someone like Holland. The American lands clean, straight shots and can mix in spinning attacks, knees, and unexpected submissions from the clinch. Expect Holland to exploit Luque’s porous defence early, using jabs and kicks to the body and legs to slow his forward momentum.
Should the fight hit the mat, Holland’s black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and length give him the tools to stifle Luque’s submission attempts and scramble to safety. He’s no longer the fighter who gave up easy positions or got overwhelmed on the ground. Holland has shown patience and a growing understanding of when to stay grounded versus when to disengage.
Luque’s path to victory would require him to get inside and drag Holland into a brawl, but that plan plays directly into Kevin’s hands. Holland is faster, more precise, and more defensively responsible. Unless Luque can land a perfect shot in the pocket or grind out control time on the ground, he’s likely to be picked apart round after round.
With superior striking, reach, durability, and a growing fight IQ, Kevin Holland has every advantage to win this fight either by late stoppage or a clear unanimous decision. Expect “Trailblazer” to outclass Luque on the feet, punish him for every forward step, and potentially close the show with a highlight-reel finish.
Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland Fight Outcome
Holland will look to dictate the range from the opening bell, using his superior reach and fluid striking to frustrate Luque. Expect him to keep the fight at kicking distance early, using front kicks and long jabs to manage the pace. From there, Holland’s creativity should shine. He can mix in spinning elbows, snappy counters, and quick level changes to keep Luque guessing. The key for Holland will be to stay composed, punish Luque’s forward pressure, and avoid extended exchanges in the pocket where the Brazilian thrives.
Luque’s best chance is to turn this into a dogfight. The Brazilian must crowd Holland and test his composure with heavy shots in the clinch. He will also look to take him down to the mat and keep him there. However, Holland’s length, footwork, and increasingly patient approach make that game plan difficult to execute. He doesn’t need to force anything. This fight plays into his hands if he keeps it clean and technical. If Holland fights smart, expects the pressure, and avoids reckless grappling, this should be a showcase win.
Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland Betting Tips
- Fight Result – Kevin Holland to win: Both of these men are on 2-3 runs in their last five and can make it important back-to-back wins here. We are backing Holland to do that. This matchup is perfect for him stylistically, and Luque will have real trouble dealing with the American fighter. A bet on Holland to win is worth 7/20, making him a clear favourite. Luque to win is worth 2/1 for anyone who thinks he can cause the upset.
- Method of Victory – Kevin Holland via KO/TKO: Anyone who has been betting on MMA fights knows Vicente Luque’s defence has taken a gigantic dive in recent years. In turn, his resilience and chin have deteriorated. Holland’s rangy striking and powerful fists mean he can hit Luque hard and often. Extend the odds of Holland winning by backing him to finish by KO/TKO, worth 13/10 with our online sportsbook. You can extend those odds with round betting. Holland to win by KO/TKO in round one is worth 5/2.
- Takedowns – Vicente Luque to land 1+ takedown: Luque’s game plan will probably be to keep hold of Holland and nullify his range. The best way to do that would be by bringing him down to the mat. His jiu-jitsu is excellent, and if he can step in range, the Brazilian can cause issues for Holland. Bet on Luque to land a takedown in the fight.
Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Kevin Holland is one of the UFC’s most entertaining and unpredictable fighters, known for his unorthodox striking, charismatic in-cage persona, and remarkable finishing ability. A professional since 2015, Holland gained notoriety on Dana White’s Contender Series before officially debuting in the UFC in 2018. He rose to prominence in 2020 with an unprecedented five wins in a calendar year. That included highlight-reel knockouts of Joaquin Buckley and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. Holland’s range, speed, and creativity make him a constant threat on the feet.
Though initially competing at middleweight, Holland has settled into the welterweight division, where his size and athleticism are more pronounced. He owns wins over Alex Oliveira, Tim Means, and Santiago Ponzinibbio, and has shown improved takedown defence since working with wrestling-heavy camps. He’s had trouble with top contenders, losing to fighters like Stephen Thompson and Jack Della Maddalena. However, Holland remains a top-tier gatekeeper with knockout power, slick jiu-jitsu, and a veteran’s confidence. He holds a record of 27-13 (1 NC), with 14 wins by knockout and eight by submission.
Holland’s Previous Five Fights
- Won: Gunnar Nelson, via unanimous decision
- Lost: Reinier de Ridder, via submission (Round One)
- Lost: Roman Dolidze, via TKO (Round One)
- Won: Michał Oleksiejczuk, via technical submission (Round One)
- Lost: Michael Page, via unanimous decision
Luque Fight Stats
Vicente Luque is a grizzled Brazilian-American welterweight with a brawler’s style, resilience, and excellent finishing rate. A perennial presence in the UFC since 2015, Luque has proven to be one of the most violent and exciting fighters in the division. With wins over the likes of Tyron Woodley, Michael Chiesa, and Randy Brown, Luque is almost as lethal standing up as he is on the ground, boasting a well-rounded skill set and knockout punch power combined with slick submission skills.
Luque is a former top-five contender but has struggled to break into the title scene, given his struggles against elite opponents. His impressive four-fight win streak in 2020 and 2021 was halted by back-to-back losses to Belal Muhammad and Geoff Neal. There have been question marks over his durability since then. The Brazilian clearly doesn’t have the chin he used to, and he has taken a lot of damage in the octagon. He enters this fight with a record of 23-10 with 11 knockouts and nine submissions. He still has plenty of heart, but the holes in his defence make him vulnerable against top strikers.
Luque’s Previous Five Fights
- Won: Themba Gorimbo, via technical submission (Round One)
- Lost: Joaquin Buckley, via TKO (Round Two)
- Won: Rafael dos Anjos, via unanimous decision
- Lost: Geoff Neal, via KO (Round Three)
- Lost: Belal Muhammad, via unanimous decision
