Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Test 4 Preview
South Africa and New Zealand meet in Baltimore for the final test of their four-match series on Saturday after three thrilling contests in South Africa. The Springboks have the lead with two victories to one, and can put a stamp on the series by making it a hat-trick in Maryland.
The All Blacks defeated their old rivals decisively in the opener, before narrowly losing two on the trot. Can they bounce back on neutral ground to tie the series, or will South Africa leave no question marks around who is the better side on Saturday?
South Africa vs New Zealand Predictions
Prediction: New Zealand 24-27 South Africa
One of our best rugby predictions for the final Test between New Zealand and South Africa is for the Springboks to secure a narrow victory and finish the series with a 3-1 win. However, this could be the closest contest of the four-match series, with the neutral venue in Baltimore removing some of the advantages South Africa enjoyed during the opening three Tests.
South Africa leads the series 2-1 after beating New Zealand 29-24 in Johannesburg last weekend. The third Test showed how evenly matched these teams have been. Both sides scored four tries during another fiercely contested match, but neither held a decisive advantage for long periods. South Africa eventually prevailed through greater physicality and better game management. However, New Zealand remained within striking distance until the final stages.
The move to Baltimore could change the balance. South Africa will not have home support, and it removes the challenge of playing at altitude. New Zealand should benefit from those conditions. The All Blacks could therefore play with greater freedom, and their high-tempo approach should also be easier to maintain for longer.
It is one of the reasons we expect another extremely competitive match. New Zealand has already shown during this series that it can trouble the Springboks when it can move the ball quickly and avoid giving South Africa opportunities to dominate through its forward pack. The All Blacks won the opening Test 33-16 in Johannesburg, proving that South Africa can be beaten even in difficult conditions.
However, the Springboks remain our pick. Their ability to win tight matches is difficult to overlook, particularly after they handled the pressure in the third Test. South Africa’s forwards continue to provide a powerful platform, while their kicking game and strength at the breakdown can force opponents into difficult territory. They also have several ways of scoring, allowing them to adapt when a match becomes a tactical battle.
New Zealand faces an additional challenge with captain Ardie Savea ruled out after suffering a shoulder dislocation in the third Test. Savea had been one of the All Blacks’ most influential players and scored a try before being forced from the field in Johannesburg. His absence removes a major source of carrying power and defensive work at the breakdown. The young Wallace Sititi will need to step up in his absence but has huge boots to fill.
The All Blacks should nevertheless have enough attacking quality to make this a close contest. Their speed and ability to exploit space could cause South Africa problems, particularly on a neutral field where the Springboks cannot rely on home conditions. New Zealand also knows that it must win to level the series, meaning there should be no shortage of attacking intent.
Discipline could play a key role in the final Test. New Zealand conceded 12 penalties in the third Test. One of those infringements resulted in a costly penalty try. The All Blacks also lost Ruben Love to the sin bin at a crucial stage. South Africa is highly effective at turning pressure into points. Those errors could therefore prove decisive again. New Zealand must improve its discipline to overturn the series deficit. Meanwhile, the Springboks will be confident in their ability to punish mistakes.
Ultimately, we expect South Africa’s greater experience to prove decisive. The neutral venue and lack of altitude should make this contest much tighter. However, the Springboks have repeatedly shown their ability to win close matches, and we expect that experience to give South Africa the edge in Baltimore.
South Africa vs New Zealand Betting Tips
- Handicap – New Zealand +7: We expect this to be another extremely close contest, making New Zealand +7 an appealing option. The neutral venue and lack of altitude should help the All Blacks stay competitive for longer, while the previous three Tests have already demonstrated how little separates these sides. Even if South Africa gets the win we predict, New Zealand should have enough quality to keep the margin below seven points. Betting on the handicap gives us a chance to back the All Blacks while still allowing for a narrow Springboks victory. Back them to cover the handicap with our online sportsbook.
- Winning Margin – South Africa by 1-7: This is our preferred angle for the match. South Africa has won the last two Tests by narrow margins, including a 30-25 victory in the third Test, and we expect another contest that goes down to the final stages. The neutral venue and absence of altitude should help New Zealand stay within touching distance, but South Africa’s physicality and experience could see them edge ahead late on. Bet on South Africa to win by between one and seven points.
- Try Scorer – Siya Kolisi: Kolisi is an appealing option in the try-scorer market given his influence close to the line and his importance to the Springboks’ forward game. The captain was instrumental in South Africa’s third Test victory and remains a key figure in their attacking structure. He is also one of the highest-paid rugby players in the world, and thrives on big occasions. Kolisi will prove to be worth every penny for anyone betting on rugby and help South Africa cross the line to win the series 3-1.
South Africa vs New Zealand Head-to-Head and Key Stats
These sides met in their third test of the series last weekend, where South Africa came from behind to win by a try in a game where discipline played a big role. The Springboks were forced to come from behind after the All Blacks made an aggressive start, with Ardie Savea scoring twice before being forced off with a shoulder injury before half-time. South Africa responded through Kurt-Lee Arendse and a penalty try to level the scores at 12-12 at the break.
The second half continued the pattern of a tightly contested battle. New Zealand relied on attacking pace, while South Africa used its forward power. Will Jordan restored the All Blacks’ lead. Jesse Kriel responded almost immediately for the Springboks. Malcolm Marx then crossed after a powerful Springbok maul. A late penalty from Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu put South Africa 29-17 ahead. Samisoni Taukei’aho scored in the final moments. However, the Springboks held on for another narrow victory. Both teams scored four tries, highlighting how little separates the sides.
The result followed a similar pattern to the opening two Tests. New Zealand won the first meeting in Johannesburg 33-16. The All Blacks recovered from a slow start to secure a convincing victory. They matched South Africa’s physical challenge and exploited space with their attacking game. South Africa responded in the second Test in Cape Town. The Springboks won 33-26 to level the series at 1-1. New Zealand’s attacking threat was again clear in that contest. Cam Roigard caused problems around the breakdown. The All Blacks also found success by attacking the wider areas.
The third Test represented an important shift in momentum. South Africa improved its control at the set piece. The Springboks also used their forwards to wear New Zealand down. However, the All Blacks struggled to maintain discipline, conceding 12 penalties. Ruben Love was also sent to the sin bin before half-time. These mistakes gave South Africa valuable opportunities to build pressure. They ultimately proved costly in another closely fought match.
The first three matches have produced one decisive win and two narrow victories, showing how closely matched these teams are. South Africa has found ways to win the last two Tests. However, New Zealand has consistently created problems with its pace. The Baltimore finale is therefore particularly difficult to call, and it could also produce another contest decided by fine margins.
