Carabao Cup

Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion

Brighton +2 on the three-way handicap is where we see the value. The bet wins if Brighton win, draw or lose by a single goal. A City win by exactly two is the handicap draw, so it loses, and so does anything bigger. Our predicted score is 2-1. City haven't beaten Brighton in the last four meetings, and Brighton have let in just 2 goals across their last five games.

AFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa

Aston Villa +2 would have landed in seven of the last eight meetings, so we like it as cover against a Bournemouth side we still fancy. On the three-way handicap it wins if Villa win, draw or lose by a single goal. A Bournemouth win by exactly two is the handicap draw, which is a separate selection, and a win by three or more loses it. Villa are unbeaten in five, and our 2-1 scoreline sits inside the line.

Liverpool v Chelsea

Chelsea +2 wins on a Chelsea win, a draw or a one-goal Liverpool win. Our model rates 2-1 the likeliest score, and that lands this bet. A Liverpool win by exactly two is the handicap draw and loses, as does anything bigger. Liverpool score just a goal a game at home in the league, though.