St Patrick’s Athletic v Shelbourne Prediction, Betting Tips and H2H 16/10/2026

Our prediction for this match leans towards St Patrick's Athletic, though not as heavily as the market does. Our model makes St Pat's 51% favourites, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline. The draw sits at 27% and Shelbourne get 22%. That 29-point gap between the two sides is real. It comes from a home team that has been miserly and a visiting team that leaks goals more often. Where we part company with the bookmakers is the price. At 1.61, St Pat's are being treated as a side that wins close to two games in every three, and our numbers simply do not stretch that far. A narrow home win is the call. The safer angle is the 78% for St Pat's or the draw, because Shelbourne on the road rarely lose but draw a lot.

All three of our bets point the same way: a tight, low-scoring game that St Pat's edge or that ends level. The betting odds on the straight home win at 1.61 are too short for a side our model rates at 51%, so we would rather build protection into the bet than chase the headline price. Our first pick is St Patrick's Athletic or the draw, which lands 78% of the time on our numbers. For handicap betting, Shelbourne with a two-goal start at 1.42 is the sturdiest price on the card. In over under betting, the under 2.5 at 2.02 is the best-priced angle in the whole of the football betting on this match, given how St Pat's games usually play out.

These numbers describe a home side that controls games at its own ground. St Pat's have won 63% of their 16 home matches this season and score 1.94 goals per home match, the kind of output that makes a home double chance feel comfortable.

The warning sign sits on the other side. Shelbourne's games are rarely shut down: 73% of their 33 league matches have had both teams scoring. Expect them to give St Pat's a problem or two even if they end up beaten.

Form tilts towards St Pat's, though Shelbourne arrive in decent spirits. St Patrick's Athletic have won four of their last five, scoring nine and conceding two. Three straight wins followed the 2-0 defeat to Waterford, including a 4-0 win over Dundalk and a 2-0 win against Shamrock Rovers. Four clean sheets in those five games is what drives our lean towards the under, and their home record of 10 wins, three draws and three defeats from 16 backs it up.

Shelbourne's run is choppier: two wins, a draw and two defeats, with ten goals scored and seven let in. They hammered Sligo Rovers 5-1 last time out, but defeats of 1-0 to Derry City and 2-1 to Drogheda United came only weeks earlier. Shelbourne have drawn half of their 16 away games and lost just two. That is exactly why the draw keeps hanging around this fixture.

History is the one column that favours the visitors, and it shapes our handicap angle. Shelbourne have won half of the last ten meetings, with St Pat's taking three and two finishing level. The margins tell the bigger story: none of the ten was decided by more than one goal, and five finished 1-0 to either side or 0-0.

One awkward detail for the home side: of the four of these meetings played at St Pat's, they lost three and drew the other. They did win the most recent clash, 2-1 at Shelbourne in August.

St Pat's are close to full strength. Simon Power is out with a knee injury, but he has played only 14 minutes all season, and Ronan Boyce is a doubt. Shelbourne have more to sweat on. Goalkeeper Wessel Speel has a knee problem, and John Martin, their second-top scorer with eight, is also a doubt. Losing Martin would take a real chunk of Shelbourne's goal threat, so check the team sheets before backing anything on their side.

The scoring load is split evenly at St Pat's, and that depth matters against a Shelbourne defence conceding 1.39 a game. Ryan Edmondson and Aidan Keena have ten league goals apiece, so 20 of the club's 52 come from the front two. Shelbourne get their goals from deeper. Harry Wood has ten and defender Daniel Kelly seven, and with John Martin a doubt those two carry even more of the burden.

The goals data points firmly to the under and to St Pat's keeping the visitors quiet. St Pat's concede just 0.78 goals per match, while Shelbourne let in 1.39. The attacking numbers are much closer at 1.62 against 1.42, so the difference between these sides sits almost entirely at the back.

At their own ground the scoring gap opens up. St Pat's average 1.94 per home match and concede 0.62, while Shelbourne manage 1.38 per away match and concede 1.12. Put those together and you get a 1-0 or 2-0 home win rather than a shootout. That is why we prefer under 2.5 to anything on the overs.

The timing data gives us a live plan. St Pat's have conceded seven of their 25 goals in the first 15 minutes, and another seven between the 61st and 75th, so those are the two windows where Shelbourne's chances peak. Outside those spells St Pat's are hard to break, letting in one goal from 16 to 30 and one from 46 to 60. Their own scoring peaks late, with 11 of 52 goals after the 75th minute.

Shelbourne go quiet from 16 to 30, with three goals of 47, then score 29 of their 47 after the break. If the game is level going into the last half hour, a late St Pat's goal is the bet we would look at.

St Pat's should have the better of the chances, and the numbers suggest they will be more accurate with them. St Pat's average 17.3 shots and 5.7 on target per match, against 14.3 and 4.3 for Shelbourne. That gives the hosts three extra efforts a game, and they hit the target with a third of their shots compared with 30% for the visitors.

Possession barely separates them at 55% to 53%, so both sides like the ball and this could be a patient contest in midfield. For a 1-0 call the shot edge matters more than the possession, because St Pat's create more without needing to dominate.

This is where the two clubs pull in opposite directions, and we side with the home pattern. Only 34% of St Pat's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, against 61% of Shelbourne's. That 27-point gap averages out at 48%, which makes the under at 2.02 the better side of the line.

The lower lines barely split them. With 75% and 76% of their games passing 1.5 goals, a 0-0 is unlikely and the under 1.5 at 3.80 is a stretch. Over 3.5 lands in only 28% and 30% of their games. Both teams scoring is the real divide, at 38% for St Pat's against 73% for Shelbourne, and with the hosts this stingy we would not back it.

Shelbourne are the side who pick up the cards. Shelbourne average 3.2 yellow cards per match, double St Pat's 1.6. Foul counts are close at 11.2 to 10.1, so the visitors are not much busier; they simply get punished more for it.

Combined, these teams average 4.8 yellows and 21.3 fouls a game, and red cards are rare at 0.1 between them. Corners are tight as well, with 5.8 won per game for St Pat's and 5.2 for Shelbourne, adding up to 11.0. If Shelbourne are chasing the game in the last 20 minutes, expect their card count to climb.

Both sides arrive unbeaten in three, but those runs look different. St Pat's have won three in a row, while Shelbourne's sequence includes a 1-1 draw with Galway United between wins over Dundalk and Sligo Rovers. The home side's run comes with clean sheets. The visitors' run came with goals flying in at both ends.

The bigger split is when they score. St Pat's are balanced, with 48% of their goals before the break and 35% after the hour. Shelbourne are a second-half side: just 38% of their goals arrive in the first half and 40% come after the 60th minute. A St Pat's lead at half time is therefore not as safe as it looks, and we would hold the double chance rather than pile into the home win after the interval.