Ascot Prediction & Betting Tips 21/10/23
This Saturday sees the culmination of the Flat season with British Champions Day at Ascot. A lot has been made of the state of the ground and the possibility of changing tracks at Ascot on Saturday in order to try to get a sounder racing surface, but with so much rain falling during the week, we are going to get a softer surface than we have had for most of the year so far. Our team has looked through the 6 races and found 4 selections to round off the Flat season.
Ascot Racecourse Prediction
1:15 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
Kyprios
The booking of Frankie Dettori to ride Trawlerman is an interesting point as the legendary jockey looks to bow out from British racing in good style. However, the horse has never run on genuine soft ground and has been withdrawn in the past when there has been cut in the going, so he may not have conditions to suit. On paper, this looks likely to develop into a match race between Trueshan and Kyprios. Trueshan has won the last 3 renewals of the Long Distance Cup, and he has returned to form this autumn with impressive wins at Doncaster and Paris Longchamp. He sets a fair standard, but it is relatively easy to pick holes in the form of his wins in the Doncaster Cup and in particular the Prix du Cadran, which looked to be the weakest renewal of that race in the last 20-years and on his 3rd start in the space of 5-weeks, we are keen to take him on.
A year ago, Kyprios had just won the Prix du Cadran by the best part of a furlong and was clearly the best stayer around. Injury has robbed him of the chance to confirm that in 2023, but he showed plenty of promise when 2nd to Eldar Eldarov on his return in the Irish St Leger last month. Having settled in the rear of that small field, he made good headway before tiring in the closing stages against race fit rivals, but he looked to retain plenty of his ability and should strip much fitter for that first outing in 11-months. He won the Gold Cup here in 2022 so we know that he will handle the track and he has winning form on softer ground, which makes him hard to oppose on these terms.
3:05 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)
Tahiyra
This is arguably the best race of the entire Flat season on paper. Paddington sets a fair standard, and he is probably best forgiven his 3rd placed finish in the Juddmonte International at York when his connections perhaps went to the well one time too many. However, he has been on the go since March and despite the break to freshen him up, this is a deeper race than those he encountered earlier in the year.
There have been 3 French trained winners of this race in the last 10-years (Charm Spirit, Solow and The Revenant) so we do need to respect the chances of Facteur Cheval and in particular Big Rock. The latter was behind Paddington in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and looks unlikely to reverse that form, but there is more hope for the front-running Big Rock, who may well be the pace angle into this race and bring solid Group 1 form into this contest. He has finished 2nd in each of his last 3 starts, but they were all in Group 1 company and he has lost nothing in defeat to the likes of Inspiral and Ace Impact over the summer. He is probably the each-way value in the race, but it will not be an easy task to concede 3lbs to a Filly with the ability of Tahiyra and ready preference is for Dermot Welds horse.
Her only defeat came at the hands of Mawj in the 1,000 Guineas and she has taken her form to a new level since, winning at Royal Ascot and last time in the Matron Stakes. She is almost guaranteed a strong pace to track here and should be hard to beat if getting a clear passage through.
3:45 Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1)
Royal Rhyme
The ground is a little bit of an unknown quantity for King of Steel, for all that he has run with great credit in his 2 previous starts at Ascot. He is going to be very popular in the market as Frankie Dettori takes one of his final rides, but there are others in this race who have certainly achieved more. Those include last year’s winner Bay Bridge and Horizon Dore, who did well to win from a difficult position in the Prix Dollar at Paris Longchamp 3-weeks ago. They are the standard setting horses, but like many at the head of this market they have had long seasons at the top level and there has been a trend at this meeting in recent seasons where it has paid to look for horses who have had lighter campaigns.
For that reason, we will take an each-way chance on Royal Ryhme. Karl Burke’s 3-year-old has a perfect record when there is the word Soft in the going description and arrives here after a pair of easy successes at Goodwood and Ayr. This race represents a significant rise in class, but he has improved with every start and looks worth a try at this level in an open race.
4:25 Balmoral Handicap
Docklands
We end with the very competitive Balmoral handicap and the horse who stands out here is the Britannia Stakes winner, Docklands. He is 2 from 2 at the track and is best forgiven his below par effort at Goodwood in August when he didn’t seem to handle the track. He remains lightly raced after just 6 starts and if he turns up in the same form as he showed here in June, he may well prove to be the best handicapped horse in this race.
Our team will be back next week as Racing returns to Cheltenham and will also be looking at the Futurity Stakes card at Doncaster.
