Cardiff Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Preview
As the Six Nations takes one of its bye weeks, rugby fans turn to the United Rugby Championship this weekend. Cardiff vs Connacht is one of the standout matches, as it could have a big impact on the race for a playoff spot. The game will take place in the Cardiff Arms Park, which Connacht historically has found a tough place to win.
Those planning to place a bet on Connacht should be careful, as the Irish province has only ever won twice at the Welsh side’s home ground. The last of those wins came in 2017 on a scoreline of 13-19. As the Six Nations is ongoing, neither of these sides will field their strongest lineups. However, both like to play an attacking brand of rugby, so we should still be in for plenty of action.
Cardiff Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Head-to-Head and Key Stats
We mentioned already that Connacht has a fairly abysmal record away from Cardiff, but that doesn’t mean the Welsh team has been completely dominant in this fixture. The home team has won the last eight matchups between these two slides. You would have to look back to 2017 to see both sides win against each other on the road. Despite the recent parity, Cardiff leads the head-to-head on victories 25-10.
However, things look different this year. Welsh rugby is well and truly in the doldrums. There is talk that the WRU will have to fold at least one club because of the cost of running Welsh rugby. Anyone betting on Cardiff this year has already suffered a disappointing campaign. They sit 12th in the United Rugby Championship table and have no more European ruby to look forward to. The Blue and Blacks finished at the bottom of their European Champions Cup group without a single victory.
Connacht is having a much better season. They are in 9th place, but only three points separate the sides. There is no doubt the Irish side has played the better rugby, but they have narrowly lost too many URC games. Connacht has a record of three wins and seven losses in their last ten games across all competitions. Cardiff has an even worse record, with two wins, one draw, and seven defeats. While the records seem close on paper, both sides must step up or face another uneventful rugby union season.
The last time the clubs met was in last year’s United Rugby Championship. The game took place at the Sportsground in Galway, and the home side took the win and a bonus point with a scoreline of 38-19. It was not much of a contest as Connacht raced into a half-time lead of 26-7. The second half was a more even affair, but the victory for anyone with a bet on Connacht was never in doubt.
Cardiff vs Connacht is a close encounter where the home side mostly comes out on top. This match will be similar, but it is much more difficult to call because of the Six Nations. Connacht is only missing Finlay Bealham and Bundee Aki for international duty. However, injury has depleted their squad, with eight players ruled out of this fixture. Cardiff is the club with the most representatives in the Wales squad. They had 11 members included in the squad for the English game. URC predictions at this time of year are even more challenging than usual.
Cardiff Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Predictions
Despite both sides struggling over the past few months and the historical results in the fixture, the bookies have a clear favourite. The Novibet online betting site has Connacht as the undeniable favourite. The Irish side to win has odds of 8/15, which returns €15.33 from a €10 wager. Placing the same value bet on Cardiff sees better returns of €25. However, when they announce the lineups, it could affect the odds.
For rugby union betting, waiting for team lineups can be very beneficial. During the Six Nations, it becomes a necessity. National teams can release players back to their squads if they feel they are unlikely to see any action in the tournament. However, injuries constantly prop up, and this can change. They can release some players back to rehab, so full vigilance is necessary.
Despite not knowing how each team will line up, we still have a firm prediction for this match. We are bucking the trends and going with a Connacht victory. One crucial fact not to overlook is Connacht’s home ground is now an all-weather surface, just like the Cardiff Arms Park. This means they can play their brand of attacking rugby and should feel right at home. Perhaps the main reason we are backing the Irish is because of the 11 Cardiff players with the national team. From the 11, they only released two to rejoin the club. The scales seem to be tipped in Connacht’s favour.
Cardiff Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Betting Tips
So, now you know we are looking to bet on Connacht. Let’s go deeper into what that will entail. As it stands, the handicap is -4.5 in favour of the visiting Irish province. That means if they score one more try than the opposition, they will win the bet. The odds for this wager is 10/11, which is more rewarding than an outright prediction.
We said above that betting at this stage of the URC requires waiting for the team news, and we stand by this. But, there is also another option. After they announce the teams, the Connacht handicap could shoot up to around -7/-7.5. Cardiff will probably miss a lot of players, and their camp has been silent until now regarding any injury news. If any readers are very confident in Connacht’s chances, then it could be best to take the -4.5 now.
For those who may be worried about betting on a game with two depleted squads, there are other markets to consider. The over-under bet allows you to bet on the total points scored in the 80 minutes. The last three meetings have seen over the estimated number of points. Both sides like to play attacking rugby but also can be weak defensively, which could give the perfect formula to a high-scoring game. One thing to warn is that they are currently forecasting rain in Cardiff at the time of the game.
To summarise, we like Connacht and predict they will win by seven points or fewer. Anything over two scores, and we think things get dicey. In terms of the over or under, that could be an excellent opportunity for live betting. Wait for the game to kick off, and if conditions are fine, betting on the over could be worthwhile. If conditions are poor, especially wet and windy, that actually could be a perfect time for you to use your Novibet welcome bonus as URC games to go under the total in poor conditions.
We can confirm Diarmuid Kilgallen has agreed a deal to join Munster at the end of the season.
We wish DK all the best for the future, and here’s to making the most of the next few months. pic.twitter.com/E5d7nPaAXy
— Connacht Rugby (@connachtrugby) February 14, 2024
Cardiff Rugby Team News and Predicted Lineup
We touched on this in the main part of the article, but Cardiff has given us nothing to work with in terms of team news. We know at least that they released Mackenzie Martin and Seb Davies from the Wales squad and are available for selection. In terms of injuries, we cannot say, but given the time off, it is likely Cardiff’s only absences will be those with the Welsh squad.
- Cardiff predicted lineup: Jacob Beetham, Aled Summerhill, Rey Lee-Lo, Ben Thomas, Theo Cabango, Tinus de Beer, Matt Aubury, Mackenzie Martin, Ellis Jenkins (c), Taulupe Faletau, Rory Thornton, Seb Davies, Rhys Litterick, Efan Daniel, and Rhys Carre.
Connacht Rugby Team News and Predicted Lineup
With Connacht, things are a lot more straightforward. Only Aki and Bealham are away on international duty. It is only injuries they need to worry about. Unfortunately, they are piling up. Mack Hanson, who would be with Ireland anyway, remains out. Joining him on the sidelines are Shane Jennings, John Porch, Colm Reilly, Diarmuid Kilgallen, Oisin McCormack, and Dylan Tierney-Martin.
- Connacht predicted lineup: Tiernan O’Halloran, Andrew Smith, David Hawkshaw, Tom Daly, Shayne Bolton, Jack Carty, Caolin Blade, Jarrad Butler, Shamus Hurley-Langton, Cian Prendergast, Joe Joyce, Niall Murray, Peter Dooley, Tadgh McElroy, and Denis Buckley.
