Cardiff Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Preview
Ulster will play Cardiff this weekend in the United Rugby Championship. The Irish province is enjoying a strong start to the new campaign. It’s been a mixed bag for Cardiff with the Welsh side riding a three-game losing streak.
Ulster will hope to maintain their momentum, but any away game in rugby union is never straightforward. Especially as Welsh rugby fans are some of the most passionate in the world. They’re the early favourites, but Cardiff can cause an upset. Both sides have top players with Jacob Stockdale and Callum Sheedy hoping to dominate proceedings.
Cardiff Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Key Stats and Head-to-Head
Cardiff had a disappointing 2023/24 campaign as they finished 22 points behind Ulster. This season, they aim to close the gap and compete for a playoff spot. However, their recent form has been uninspiring. They enjoyed a soft start with victories over Zebre and Scarlets. Since then, they’ve suffered defeats to Glasgow, the Scarlets, and Edinburgh.
Meanwhile, Ulster has won three of their five opening games. They defeated Connacht in a pulsating encounter before crushing Ospreys 36-12 last weekend. Their defeats came in South Africa against the Lions and the Bulls. However, there’s much to be positive about for the Irish side.
It helps that Jacob Stockdale has recaptured some of his 2018 form. The Ulster winger scored two tries against Ospreys. He has three tries this season and is his province’s most prolific threat. He’s reentering Irish contention because he’s so effective. Some critics still doubt his defensive contribution, but he’s a more mature player now.
Tinus de Beer was one of Cardiff’s standouts last year. The South African fly-half has competition from Callum Sheedy, who started against Edinburgh. This is one area of the field where the Welsh region has plenty of depth. Theo Cabango is emerging as one of their most exciting young players on the wing.
History isn’t kind to Cardiff in this rivalry. Ulster has won seven of their past ten encounters stretching back to 2016. Cardiff won two of these games with one draw between the sides. However, they may take solace from the fact that both Cardiff victories came in Wales. If they’re going to win, they must use their home advantage.
Their last meeting was an Ulster win in Belfast. It was a close game as only one point separated the sides at the final whistle. Their previous rugby match saw the Irish side emerge 20-42 victors in a blowout. The good news for Cardiff is that Ulster has some set-piece frailties with a lack of depth at prop. Potentially, Cardiff could exploit this and put Ulster on the back foot during this game.
Cardiff Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Predictions
Predicted Score: Cardiff 20–27 Ulster
Ulster has a stronger roster and will arrive in Wales in better form than Cardiff. However, the Welsh team has been more competitive at home this season. Our rugby prediction is that they will push Ulster close but lose by a single converted try. Ulster has scored more points this season than Cardiff with 131 to 109.
Ulster are third in the league for most tries scored this season with 21, four more than Cardiff on 17. The likes of Jacob Stockdale, Sam Berman, and Jacob Boyd offer clinical finishing. Boyd and Berman both have four tries apiece this season. Harri Millard leads the way for Cardiff with three. Cam Winnett and Dan Thomas have a brace each.
One area where Cardiff could punish Ulster is in the scrum. The Irish side would love a player of Corey Domachowski’s potential in this area. They’re still missing Marty Moore and it will be a struggle to replace his physicality as he retired a month ago for mental health reasons. Cardiff Head Coach Matt Sherratt must exploit every advantage they have.
We believe Ulster will score most of their points from open play. John Cooney and Aidan Morgan have the makings of an excellent partnership. The out-halves can be dangerous playmakers if Cardiff doesn’t shut them down. Morgan is one of the most intriguing players in Ireland with fans waiting for a breakout performance.
Cardiff gave away too many penalties against Edinburgh. They can’t repeat this against Ulster because they’re shooting themselves in the foot. The Welsh team put phases together but were too inconsistent. We expect them to raise their game in this match-up.
We predict that Callum Sheedy will continue at fly-half against Ulster. Tinus de Beer was a hero for Cardiff last year, but he’s taken some hard knocks in 2024. They are playing against an Ulster team with multiple injuries. However, Cardiff is currently experiencing an even worse crisis with over a dozen players on the physio’s table.
Richie Murphy looks impressive in his first full season as Ulster’s head coach in the United Rugby Championship. He took the reins in February and is leading them on an upward trajectory. We believe he has the nous to beat Cardiff.
Cardiff Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Betting Tips
Ulster enters this tie as the favourite on our online sportsbook. This won’t shock anybody because they’re in better form. Cardiff is also experiencing a major injury crisis, so it’s going to be tough for them to challenge the Irish province. We don’t expect Cardiff to make it easy for them, but betting on Ulster to win outright makes sense.
It’s 8/15 for Ulster to win this game, with €10 potentially making €5.33. This isn’t the biggest profit, but it’s about right given the context of their meeting. It may be even more tempting with a bigger stake. Another option is to check out the other rugby markets to add prop bets.
Consider applying a -4 handicap on Ulster at 10/11. This is marginally more lucrative than the reverse handicap on Cardiff. This time, €10 could make €9.09, so it’s very profitable.
Over-under betting could be appealing with the number of points in this game. We’re predicting between 40 and 50 total points. You could also select the winning margin. We think Ulster will win by at least one to seven points. This market is available at 16/5. You could turn €10 into €42 if this is successful.
Cardiff enters this game as an underdog. However, Ulster also has injuries and can be inconsistent on the road. It’s 6/4 for Cardiff to pull off an upset in this game. A €10 wager could make €15 if they win. It would take something special, but they have some top talent, including several Wales internationals.
https://twitter.com/UlsterRugby/status/1848388604000714753
Individual players will hope to make their mark in this clash. Jacob Stockdale is the man of the moment for Ulster. He’s a solid pick to score a try because he’s in great form. Werner Kok could be an alternative selection because he’s got great potential. The new signing has yet to set the world on fire but could run riot at Cardiff Arms Park.
Check the live betting markets during this game. Ulster will be on the back foot if Cardiff scores early and the odds may improve for a comeback victory. We’d expect them to bounce back and win the second half.
Check out the other provincial action this weekend. Munster plays The Sharks this weekend in another big URC tie. Meanwhile, Leinster hosts the Lions in Dublin. The Newport Gwent Dragons will travel to Galway to face Connacht. Why not make an accumulator with all the Irish teams?
Don’t forget to check the outright wagers too. Undefeated Leinster are 3/5 to win the United Rugby Championship. Ulster is 33/1 outsiders while Munster is at 15/2. You can bet on the URC winner at Novibet plus all the rugby union action this weekend.
Cardiff Rugby Team News and Predicted Lineup
Matt Sherratt made nine changes last weekend and we expect more this time. Callum Sheedy may continue as captain and starting fly-half. Injuries have decimated the team with the likes of Josh Adams, Corey Domachowski, and Keiron Assiratti doubts. Tinus de Beer has a tight hamstring. Over a dozen Cardiff players are injured or unfit for this clash.
- Cardiff Predicted Lineup: Cam Winnett, Gabriel Hamer-Webb, Mason Grady, Rory Jennings, Iwan Stephens, Callum Sheedy, Aled Davies, Ed Byrne, Dafydd Hughes, Rhys Litterick, Josh McNally, Teddy Williams, James Botham, Thomas Young, and Alun Lawrence.
Ulster Rugby Team News and Predicted Lineup
Richie Murphy is likely to go with a similar lineup to the one that smashed Ospreys last weekend. Ulster is missing several big-name players including Rob Herring and Robert Baloucoune. Jake Flannery and Tom Stewart are also absentees. The good news is that captain Iain Henderson may return from a concussion. Eric O’Sullivan and Jude Postlethwaite are also fully fit.
- Ulster Predicted Lineup: Mike Lowry, Werner Kok, Ben Carson, Stuart McCloskey, Jacob Stockdale, Aidan Morgan, John Cooney, Eric O’Sullivan, James McCormick, Tom O’Toole, Alan O’Connor, Harry Sheridan, Cormac Izuchukwu, Marcus Rea, and David McCann.
