Cardiff Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Preview
First in the United Rugby Championship plays 12th this weekend as Leinster journeys to Wales. Cardiff vs Leinster takes place this Saturday, March 2, at 7:35 pm. This fixture will be a test of character, as both teams are missing key personnel at the Six Nations.
The Cardiff Arms Park has been anything but a fortress this season. Cardiff is towards the bottom of the league table after another disappointing performance against Connacht. Still, there are plenty of positives to take from the game, having played most of the match with 14 men. However, Leinster is flying even with plenty of absences. They have bounced back from their New Year’s Day defeat to Ulster, winning two ERCC games and destroying Benetton at home last week.
Cardiff Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Looking at the historical results of this URC rivalry, there are very few surprises. Leinster has been victorious in nine of the last ten meetings. These are league games, and you would have to look back as far as 2012 to see when these teams last faced off in a European Cup competition. While Leinster has been dominant in this match in the past, Cardiff picked up a surprise win in January two years ago. Leinster fans and the coaching staff will remember that away day and want to avoid a repeat this weekend.
The last time these two teams played in the URC was in January 2023. Leinster were the hosts, and they dominated in the first 40 minutes. The Welsh side had no response to scores from Deegan, McGrath, and Byrne in the first half. Cardiff went in at the break 19 points down and had nothing on the board. The second half started with a Jason Harries yellow card for the visitors, and Leinster punished them. Deeny and O’Reilly added scores before Cardiff finally got a foothold on the game. Tries from Thornton and Dacey came too late, and the Irish hosts crushed the visitors with a Turner try two minutes after the 80-minute mark.
The previous meeting was in 2022, and Cardiff was the host. This was a much better performance from the Welsh side, even though they went down to 14 men in this fixture. Leinster were the clear favourites heading into this match, and it proved to be a thriller. Ross Byrne got the game’s first points with a penalty kick to the visitors. Cardiff responded well, with a try from Owen Lane. It was 13-10 at the break. Jim Botham went to the sin bin after 50 minutes, and the visitors pounced. They scored two tries in this period with the advantage of an extra man. With five minutes left, Leinster had the lead 26-27. The hosts battled on and secured a penalty with the clock in the red. Jarrod Evans made no mistake and secured a 29-27 victory over Leinster.
Cardiff enters this contest after a poor run of games. They have lost four in a row in all competitions, including a spirited match against Connacht. Against the Irish side, Cardiff had Rey Lee-Lo sent off after 15 minutes, and they went down to 13 men before the break. They had a six-point lead to hold for the last half an hour, but Connacht narrowly scraped ahead. Leinster thoroughly beat Benetton in the last round of URC fixtures, 47-18. The Italians have been a fantastic watch this season, but this was too big a challenge for them to overcome.
Leinster has also played an additional game since the last round of fixtures, a club friendly against the Saracens. The Irish club fell apart in the first half in London, and they trailed by 24 points at the break. There was a fightback in the second half, but the damage was already done. Leinster lost 31-19 in a bruising defeat. The hosts were in front after 90 seconds and never looked likely to give up the driving seat. Betting on Leinster this week after a loss still seems like the best option. The league leaders will want revenge and might decimate a poor-performing Cardiff this weekend.
Cardiff Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Predictions
Prediction: Cardiff Blues 10 – 32 Leinster Rugby
Leinster has the depth to get all five points up for grabs this weekend, even without several key personnel. Cardiff showed last round they are not a pushover side. Even when down to 13 men, they fought hard and made life incredibly difficult for Connacht. If they can keep all 15 players on the pitch, they could pose a genuine threat in this game. However, we think the Irish side will get the job done, clearing the 20-point handicap.
This week, making United Rugby Championship predictions has been easy. Most of the bottom teams in the league table are facing off against sides aiming for a top-eight finish. This fixture is another with a clear favourite, and we expect the visitors to dominate both halves. Betting on Leinster to lead the first half is another wager we would support, especially given how often the Irish side scores first in this fixture.
Cardiff has a discipline issue. In the past two fixtures against Leinster, the team from Wales have gone down to 14, and their last league match saw a yellow and red card. If they want to perform an upset against the team in first place in the URC, you cannot do it with a man in the sin bin. Cardiff may have been able to hang on to Connacht two weeks ago, but they will have no such luck against Leinster on Saturday.
The possibility of another yellow card seems high this week. Placing a live bet on a moment of ill-discipline is quite a risky move in rugby union. Incidents happen all the time, but often these moments can ruin your bets. If you are betting against the grain, make sure not to risk more than you can afford to lose. The odds for Cardiff to win are incredibly low, so you don’t have to bet big to see high returns.
Looking at the last five Cardiff vs Leinster matches, two have finished with an odd number of points and three were even. We predict they will score an even number of points at the final whistle. We back Leinster to get the lion’s share of the points, including a lead of at least 15 after the first 40 minutes. There are still opportunities to win when betting on Leinster this week if you are not afraid to be precise with your prediction.
Cardiff Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Betting Tips
If you are considering betting on the URC, there are a couple of aspects to consider. For starters, Leinster is the clear favourite at the online bookmaker, which means the returns are lower than usual. An outright prediction for the visitors to win this match is worth 2/17. A €10 wager on Leinster to win would give you €11.18. The home team is unlikely to win, and they have 5/1 odds at Novibet. We back Cardiff to give Leinster a better game than most people expect. However, getting within 15 points of the visitors seems a bridge too far.
Looking at the winning margins this week, there are three options. You can bet on Leinster to win from one to seven points, eight to 14, and 15 points or more at the final whistle. We predict the team from Ireland will lead by at least 15 points in the second half, which has odds of 17/20. A ten-euro wager on this market has significantly higher returns than an outright prediction. You can secure €18.50 if the match is as one-sided as we predict.
In matches like this, we can’t help but focus on the halftime markets. You can often enjoy better odds if you are betting on an outcome settled before the end of the match. This week, you can bet on Leinster to lead after 40 minutes with the odds at 3/10. This will fluctuate if you are considering live betting on the match, depending on which team scores first. You can also look at first-half handicap bets, the winning margin, and which half will see the most points. All these markets have better returns than you might expect.
🏉 | Leinster Head Coach Leo Cullen has issued an injury update ahead of Saturday’s #BKTURC Round 11 clash in Wales against @Cardiff_Rugby
Read here: https://t.co/SwpNWiFLdA #CARvLEI #FromTheGroundUp pic.twitter.com/KY3o72qRX4
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) February 26, 2024
If you are going to bet on the rugby this week, why not do it at Novibet? We are expanding our betting platform to offer bettors a wider selection of odds and exciting markets. All new players will receive a fantastic welcome bonus, allowing you to bet on any event with reduced risk. This week, betting on Leinster to win by 15 points or more is a brilliant way to use your welcome offer.
Cardiff Rugby Team News
There is some good news for Cardiff Blues fans, Callum Sheedy is returning to Wales. The fly-half broke through the club’s pathway but spent his entire professional career with the Bristol Bears. They also convinced several current players to sign new deals, including Evan Lloyd, Mackenzie Martin, Alex Mann, and Cam Winnett. With new ownership confirmed, Cardiff has been busy bringing back various players, such as Tom Bowen and Steffan Emanuel. The results have not been there this season, but it’s clear they are building for the future.
Leinster Rugby Team News
Leinster head coach Leo Cullen spoke to the media about various injured players. Ross Byrne and Jamie Osborne returned to the game against Benetton. They got through the game without further setbacks. Cormac Foley is edging closer to a return after stepping up his training loads this week. Four players on the books at Leinster will not return in time for this week’s game, and they are yet to establish a return date. Charlie Ngatai, Jimmy O’Brien, Alex Soroka, and Martin Moloney are all unavailable.
