Chris Duncan vs Mateusz Rebicki Preview
Chris Duncan and Mateusz Rebicki will go head-to-head at the UFC Apex this weekend. The pair will face each other on the Fight Night main card in an exciting lightweight clash. Both men know that a win will help them move up the division and closer to a coveted fight against ranked opposition.
Inconsistency has plagued both of their UFC careers, but they’re entertaining fighters. They both love a finish and are prone to the occasional loss, so this promises to be a banger. This is an ideal type of fight to bet on because there are so many potential outcomes. Rebicki is a sizable favourite, but we believe that this fight will be closer than the odds suggest!
Chris Duncan vs Mateusz Rebicki Predictions
Fight Prediction: Chris Duncan to win and less than 2.5 rounds
It’s tricky to predict this fight because these men love chaos. Our best MMA predictions indicate this fight won’t go three rounds, as one of these men will secure a finish. Duncan rose to prominence with his aggressive punching style. He has seven knockout victories to his name, but recently, he has been having more success with his submission game. The confident Scot has a brilliant guillotine choke in his locker and has won his past two fights by this method.
His best chance of victory is through submission. Rebicki is arguably a more accomplished wrestler and may look to mix in takedowns with his striking. This could present opportunities to the underdog to secure an unexpected victory. Plus, a Duncan victory is most likely to occur in the first two rounds. He doesn’t hold back, even if it exposes him to danger. This can be a blessing and a curse for the former Bellator star.
Reshare this Scotland 🏴 i hold this flag for you with great pride.
See you next week.
I’m Off to pick a fight !!! pic.twitter.com/UX0E31hamm— Chris duncan (@theproblem155) July 29, 2025
Rebicki is also a proven finisher with 16 KOs or submissions in his 20 victories. He has a dangerous armbar, with a couple of victories coming from this method. However, this is rarely effective in modern MMA, so it would be a shock if he secured it. The Pole has been on a tougher run in his past couple of matches, with a split-decision victory over Myktybek Orolbai and a TKO loss against Diego Ferreira in 2024.
We believe that Duncan’s surging confidence will be enough for him to overcome the odds and secure the win. Rebicki is probably the more well-rounded fighter, but ‘The Problem’ is a wild man. He is prone to moments of chaos that nobody can prepare for. If the 32-year-old can maintain his composure, he’s capable of pulling off a big shock here.
This is also likely to be a very entertaining fight. These men love to throw their hands, and they’re probably going to trade heavy shots. We don’t see them caring too much about self-preservation, so this is going to be a very fan-friendly bout. There’s a high chance that this will be the Fight of the Night. Don’t take your eyes off this one because it could end in a blink!
Don’t forget to check out the live betting odds in this match. We believe Duncan will prove his worth and secure a massive win at the UFC Apex. Check out in-play odds on our sports betting site so you can react in real time and increase your chances of a profit.
Chris Duncan vs Mateusz Rebicki Fight Outcome
A finish is highly likely in this fight because they have a ludicrous combined total of 26 on their records. We see this clash ending in one of two ways. The first is that one of these men catches the other in a wild exchange. They both pack heat in their hands, so it’s a coin toss who would be successful in this case. You could favour Rebicki because he’s slightly more defensively responsible, even though he has a more recent knockout loss on his record.
Don’t be silly jump the guilly.
Chris Duncan puts Oki to sleep with a guillotine choke. pic.twitter.com/bGvyNg7Gsq— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) March 21, 2025
The other most viable outcome is a submission win. Here, we’re more confident picking Duncan to sink in another guillotine because it’s becoming something of a trademark for ‘The Problem.’ It may also make Rebicki wary of going to the ground with him and potentially open him up to more strikes. We think Duncan has a BJJ advantage over ‘Chinczyk.’
Chris Duncan vs Mateusz Rebicki Betting Tips
- Fight Result – Chris Duncan to win: Mateusz Rebicki is the favourite to win this MMA fight. But we believe that there is more value in backing the underdog because there’s not much to separate them on paper. A €10 bet on Duncan to win outright could make a decent €15 profit at 6/4. In contrast, it’s 9/20 for Rebicki to win. Backing Duncan makes more sense because we don’t think there’s much of a talent gap between these men.
- Method of Victory – Chris Duncan by submission: Duncan has won his last couple of fights by guillotine, and he seems very comfortable with this technique. It would be a fantastic MMA bet if he could win a third-straight bout by this method. We’re not expecting much grappling in this match, but this could give him the chance to do a Dustin Poirier and look for ‘the guilly’ out of nowhere!
- Over-Under Total Number of Rounds – Under 2.5: Rebicki and Duncan will throw leather at each other, so it would be a major shock if they go the distance. We predict this MMA fight will end in the second round, meaning there are plenty of high-paying UFC bets to consider. Chris Duncan doesn’t involve himself in staring contests, even if it comes at a cost to himself. Over-under betting on this clash could be very profitable!
Chris Duncan vs Mateusz Rebicki Head-to-Head and Key Stats
While these two fighters are yet to face off in the octagon, you can tell a lot just by looking at their recent fights. Both are looking for a run of positive results to challenge higher up the lightweight division.
Chris Duncan’s Recent Form
Duncan is one of the lightweight division’s most dangerous surging fighters. He has a 13-2 record with seven wins by KO/TKO and three submission victories. ‘The Problem’ is on a two-fight winning streak with victories over Jordan Vucenic and Bolaji Oki. His most recent defeat came against Manuel Torres when he suffered a first-round loss by rear-naked choke.
Duncan has only a single KO defeat on his record. Viacheslav Borschev landed a shocking left hook when they fought in the Contender Series in 2021. Duncan is an experienced professional. He competed under the Bellator banner before joining the UFC and currently has five wins with the promotion, including the Contender Series.
Chris Duncan’s Previous Five Fights
- Win: Jordan Vucenic via guillotine choke (R2).
- Win: Bolaji Oki via guillotine choke (R1).
- Loss: Manuel Torres via rear-naked choke (R1)
- Win: Yanal Ashmouz by unanimous decision.
- Win: Omar Morala by split-decision.
Mateusz Rebicki’s Recent Form
Rebicki is another experienced UFC veteran with five wins under the banner. His overall record is 20-2 with an outstanding 16 finishes. The Pole has seven submission victories and nine wins by KO/TKO. However, both his defeats came by knockout, so he may have a weaker chin than Duncan. His last win came by split-decision against Myktybek Orolbai, while his previous result was a TKO defeat against Diego Ferreira.
He is three inches shorter than his Scottish opponent at 5”7, and also gives up a reach advantage. Rebicki is also 32 but has more experience with seven more fights on his record. Arguably, his victory over Roosevelt Roberts is the most impressive victory for both fighters. A win will be a big step forward for either man.
Mateusz Rebicki’s Previous Five Fights
- Win: Myktybek Orolbai by split-decision.
- Loss: Diego Ferreira by TKO (R3).
- Win: Roosevelt Roberts by armbar (R1).
- Win: Loik Radzhabov by TKO (R2).
- Win: Nick Fiore by unanimous decision.
