Makhachev vs Garry Preview
Islam Makhachev defends his welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Saturday night. The Russian enters his first defence at 170 pounds after defeating Jack Della Maddalena to claim the belt.
Garry presents a unique challenge with his size, reach, movement, and technical striking. The Portmarnock native could become just the second Irish champion in UFC history, behind UFC legend Conor McGregor. Can he cause an upset in the City of Brotherly Love, or will Makhachev make it two from two at welterweight?
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Garry Predictions
Fight prediction: Makhachev via decision
One of our best MMA predictions this week is for Islam Makhachev to defeat Ian Machado Garry. The Russian enters his first UFC welterweight title defence after winning the belt from Jack Della Maddalena. Garry represents a fascinating challenge, given his size, movement, and technical striking. However, Makhachev’s elite wrestling, grappling, control, and championship experience should ultimately give him the edge.
Islam Makhachev has established himself as one of the most dominant fighters of his generation. The former lightweight champion owns a 28-1 professional record and has won 16 consecutive fights. His record includes 13 submission victories, while he has also demonstrated increasingly effective striking throughout his UFC career.
Makhachev’s biggest advantage is obviously his grappling. Few fighters in the UFC can match his ability to close distance, secure takedowns, and maintain control once the fight reaches the mat. His chain wrestling is particularly difficult to defend because he rarely relies on one attempt. If the first takedown fails, he can immediately transition to another attack, work towards the clinch, or force his opponent against the cage.
That makes this a difficult stylistic matchup for Garry. The Irishman is an excellent striker with the height, reach, movement, and technical discipline to make opponents uncomfortable at range. He is also unbeaten across his first 17 professional fights and has developed considerably since entering the UFC. However, keeping Makhachev at the end of his punches for 25 minutes is an enormous challenge.
Garry’s best route to victory will be to maintain distance and refuse to engage in prolonged clinch exchanges. His long frame gives him the opportunity to use kicks and straight punches to keep Makhachev outside. He will also need excellent footwork when defending takedowns. Every failed attempt will still force him to defend another sequence, draining his energy.
Makhachev should therefore avoid rushing forward recklessly. Instead, expect him to use his striking to disguise his entries and force Garry to react. Once he gets close enough, the Russian can attack the legs, body lock, or drive Garry towards the fence. From there, his positional control should become increasingly difficult for the challenger to escape.
The size difference makes this particularly interesting. Garry is naturally built for welterweight and has the physical dimensions to create problems for Makhachev. Khabib Nurmagomedov, one of the best UFC fighters of all time, has acknowledged that the matchup will require Makhachev to chase Garry, close the distance, and get him to the ground. That is easier said than done against a fighter with Garry’s movement.
However, Makhachev has already shown that he can adapt his approach against bigger opponents. His victory over Della Maddalena demonstrated that his grappling remains effective at 170 pounds. He also has the conditioning required to maintain his wrestling threat deep into championship fights. His UFC statistics include a 91% takedown defence rate and an average of 3.10 takedowns per 15 minutes.
We do not expect Makhachev to necessarily find a submission or knockout. Garry’s size, toughness, and defensive awareness could allow him to survive difficult positions. Instead, the champion should rely on positional dominance and consistent wrestling to bank rounds. His ability to dictate where the fight takes place should ultimately be the deciding factor.
Ultimately, Garry has the tools to make this a competitive championship fight. His striking, range, movement, and resilience deserve considerable respect. However, Makhachev possesses the more reliable path to victory. His wrestling should neutralise much of Garry’s striking advantage and allow him to control the majority of the contest.
Thousands will be watching the UFC in Ireland in hopes of another Irish champion, but our prediction is for Makhachev to retain. Garry should have moments and could make the champion work harder than many expect. Nevertheless, Makhachev’s grappling, conditioning, experience, and tactical intelligence should see him retain the welterweight title after 25 minutes.
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Garry Betting Tips
- Method of Victory – Makhachev via decision: Garry is a trickier matchup for the champ than the odds would indicate. Makhachev has only fought once at welterweight and Garry’s height and reach advantage could make it difficult for him to enter for takedowns as often as he is used to. However, Makhachev’s ability to chain wrestling attempts together should eventually allow him to establish control. Garry is unlikely to be submitted easily, while his size and defensive awareness could help him survive difficult positions. We expect Makhachev to win rounds through takedowns, control time, and ground work before securing a unanimous decision victory. Bet on Makhachev to retain by decision, worth 13/10.
- Fight To Go The Distance – Yes: This is an appealing option for anyone betting on UFC and expecting a closely contested championship fight. Garry has never been stopped professionally and can survive Makhachev’s best grappling sequences. The champion should control significant periods through his wrestling and top pressure, but Garry’s toughness should allow him to recover and return to his feet. Makhachev may also be more cautious against a naturally bigger opponent, particularly if he cannot secure an early finish. We expect Garry to make it through the difficult moments, even if Makhachev keeps his belt.
- Longshot – Garry to win: This is an intriguing option for anyone looking for a higher price with our online sportsbook. Garry has the size, reach, movement, and technical striking to cause Makhachev problems at welterweight. If he can consistently maintain distance and avoid being trapped against the cage, he could frustrate the champion and win rounds with his jab, kicks, and long-range combinations. Makhachev will have to work hard to close the distance, and every failed takedown attempt could give Garry opportunities to build momentum. While Makhachev remains the clear favourite, betting on Garry could offer significant value at 5/2 if the Irishman can keep the fight standing and force the champion into a striking contest.
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Garry Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Makhachev Recent Form and Key Stats
Islam Makhachev enters this contest with a professional record of 28-1 and 16 consecutive victories. The former UFC lightweight champion has established himself as one of the most dominant fighters in the promotion. His recent run includes victories over several elite opponents, demonstrating his ability to adapt and win in different ways.
Makhachev has recorded 13 submission victories throughout his career, highlighting the danger he presents once fights reach the ground. His chain wrestling is arguably his greatest weapon. He can transition between takedowns, clinch positions, and submissions without giving opponents much time to reset.
The Russian also owns a 91% takedown defence rate and averages 3.10 takedowns per 15 minutes. His move to welterweight has added another dimension to his career. His victory over Jack Della Maddalena showed that his grappling remains highly effective against naturally bigger opponents. Makhachev now has the opportunity to establish himself as a champion in a second weight class.
Garry Recent Form and Key Stats
Ian Machado Garry enters the contest unbeaten with a professional record of 17-0. The Irishman has developed into one of the UFC’s most technically accomplished welterweights. His combination of height, reach, movement, and striking precision makes him particularly difficult to close down.
Garry’s size could be one of his biggest advantages against Makhachev. He is naturally comfortable at welterweight and can use his long frame to maintain distance with jabs, kicks, and straight punches. His movement also allows him to attack without remaining stationary in front of his opponent.
The biggest question is whether Garry can maintain that distance for five rounds. Makhachev will constantly threaten takedowns and clinch exchanges, forcing the Irishman to defend repeatedly. Garry has never suffered a professional defeat, and his durability will be crucial. If he keeps the fight standing, his technical striking gives him a genuine chance of causing an upset.
