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Connacht Rugby vs Ulster Predictions, Betting Tips, and H2H 28/12/2024

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Connacht Rugby vs Ulster Preview

This week in the United Rugby Championship, Connacht welcomes Ulster to Galway. Kick-off takes place on Saturday, December 28th at 7:35 pm. Both teams have struggled to get going this season and a win here will go a long way.

Connacht has lost every match against Irish opposition in recent months. That includes multiple defeats at the hands of Leinster plus a 32-17 loss to the Ulstermen. They found some form in the Challenge Cup a couple of weeks ago, but after the Leinster game last week, this is a true test of where the club is currently.

Ulster has faced similar struggles this campaign. They had a tough draw in the ERCC against strong French opposition, but are at risk of having a tough league campaign. Having beaten Glasgow in their first game of the campaign, few would have expected the Northern Irish side to pick up two wins in the next eight matches. Saying that both sides need a result heading into this fixture is an understatement.

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Connacht Rugby vs Ulster Predictions

Score Prediction: Connacht 25-22 Ulster

This fixture has been one of the tightest in the URC over the past two years. Since December 2022, five points or fewer have separated the teams when they have faced off in the last five meetings. Our rugby prediction is for this trend to continue, but with the team from Galway coming out on top. We expect Connacht to win by three points this Saturday.

So far this season, Connacht are yet to find a rhythm. They lost by two points to Munster at the start of the season before close games against the Sharks and Scarlets gave them two wins in a row. Defeats to Ulster and Connacht followed, which knocked the players’ confidence. They continued to look inconsistent until a win at home and on the road in the Challenge Cup. The game against Leinster should have no impact on this fixture, as this is a match they must win.

Ulster got the better of Connacht earlier this season. However, the Ulstermen face a much larger crisis compared to the team from Galway. Connacht has five wins in the last ten games, whereas Ulster has three. They are underachieving, considering the talent and depth they have in the squad. Yes, facing Toulouse and Bordeaux is unfortunate, but they completely fell apart. They conceded 101 points in the ERCC and only scored 40.

Neither team has found what is required when playing rugby at the top level, but this is not unusual. Both teams often struggle in the URC before rebounding and stringing some results together. On paper, Connacht is the more likely team to snap this streak and find a rhythm. However, Ulster defeated them as recently as two months ago. Betting on rugby this week will be difficult as this match could go either way.

Our prediction is the home side will win this game. The last meeting was tight, with Ulster coming out winners by five points. We feel the home crowd will play its part in seeing another close result going against the visitors. Ulster has won the last two meetings between the provincial rivals, both were in Belfast. The last time Connacht won against the Ulstermen was by two points at home in November 2023.

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Connacht Rugby vs Ulster Betting Tips

If you are interested in betting on the URC this week, there are several profitable wagers to consider. For starters, we predict Connacht will win this match. They will enter this fixture as the slight favourite, but there are multiple ways to extend your returns.

Connacht has started games strongly in recent weeks. They often enter half-time with a lead, meaning you should bet on Connacht to win the first half. Ulster has struggled in both halves recently, including conceding multiple tries in the first and second periods of the game. It could be worth betting on Connacht to win the first half but lose the second, holding on for a narrow win.

The next option to consider is the handicap. Depending on the returns, the handicap is a viable option for both teams. If Connacht wins this match, it will be by five points or fewer. We estimate there will be a penalty difference between these provincial rivals. If the markets at our online sports betting site indicate a larger margin between the clubs, choose the handicap for Ulster. While we think they will lose this game, they will be within touching distance at the final whistle.

When betting on rugby matches, we often look at the winning margin. This week, we recommend Connacht to win by 1 to 7 points. The home side will not have the confidence to win this game by double-digits. Plus, if Ulster pulls off a shock result on the road, it will also be a small winning margin.

Thanks to the cup games both teams picked up injuries in recent weeks. Prop bets will be tricky because returning stars may struggle to make an impact in a derby game. To find out what players stand a chance of performing in this close game, wait until the first 20 minutes before placing a live bet. This way you can judge which players stand to get points on the board.

Connacht Rugby vs Ulster Predictions Heat-To-Head and Key Stats

Connacht faced Ulster earlier this season in Belfast last October. It was a close game that was ultimately decided by discipline issues. The referee sent one player from each team to the sin bin but the costly decision came right at the death. Josh Murphy saw red and effectively handed the win to Ulster.

The first half was fantastic from a neutral perspective. The momentum swung multiple times after John Andrew got the first score. Shayne Bolton replied for Connacht, but two further scores for Ulster gave them a commanding 14-point lead. Joe Joyce pegged one back for Connacht before the referee gave Werner Kok a yellow card. Ben Murphy scored for the visitors to make this a two-point game after 40 minutes.

The referee had no choice but to give Josh Murphy a yellow card after 50 minutes and the Ulstermen pounced. David McCann scored a try, but with 15 men restored, Connacht levelled the game with 20 to play. Murphy pushed his luck in the 73rd minute and was red-carded. Cooney kicked for three points, giving Ulster the lead. They extended their advantage with a Timoney try, and a late three points from Josh Ioane were only a consultation.

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Games as exciting as the previous meeting between Ulster and Connacht are usually quite rare in rugby union. However, the recent matches between these Irish rivals reveal an interesting trend. Two points or fewer have separated the sides in three of their last five matches.

The last time Connacht hosted Ulster, they won by two points. Ulster picked up a commanding ten-point lead in the first half before extending to 17. Connacht dug deep and hit back to get within three with 25 minutes to play. A last-gasp try from Diarmuid Kilgallen was enough to give Connacht the win, and it finished 22-20.

Our rugby prediction is for a similar result but with a different narrative. We expect Connacht to come out of the gates stronger, taking the lead in the first half. They will set the benchmark and see if they can hold on against a relentless Ulster attack. With the support of the home crowd, we expect Connacht to see off the late Ulster charge to win by three points at the final whistle.

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