Connacht Rugby vs Lions Preview
The United Rugby Championship is back, and we have round 12 to enjoy this weekend. On Saturday, March 23, at 5:15 pm, the Emirates Lions will travel to Galway to face Connacht. The Irish club is seventh in the league table, while the Lions are four points behind in eleventh place. How drastically will the league table change after this week?
Connacht Rugby has finally strung consecutive results together after a poor run of games since late November. The Irish side has only won four matches in their last ten games across all competitions. That includes a current winning streak of three fixtures. The Lions were on fire until the final round of the European Rugby Challenge Cup. Since then, they have played five and lost four. Connacht vs the Lions looks like a vital game for both teams as they aim for a top-eight finish in the URC.
Connacht Rugby vs Lions Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Interestingly, Connacht vs Lions has only occurred twice over the past few years. Both fixtures went to the Irish club, but only three points separated the sides in the away leg. The last time Connacht hosted was in January 2023. The match was high-scoring as the teams added 67 points to the scoreboard. Unfortunately for the Bulls, most of those points went to the home team.
Looking at the game from last year in greater detail, the first half was sensational. It all started with a Diarmuid Kilgallen try inside the first three minutes. The Lions hit back with a score from Asenathi Ntlabakanye, and the points came flying. Delahunt and Blade added more scores for Connacht before a Henco van Wyk score and a yellow card for Shane Delahunt. Even with one man down, Connacht still looked rampant and added one last try before half-time.
The score was 29-17 at the break, and the game could have swung in either direction. However, it was the hosts that struck first shortly after the restart. Two tries scored by Caolin Blade to secure a hat-trick were too much for the South African side to recover from. Marius Louw found a consolation score before the 70-minute mark, but that was the game’s last point. It finished 43-24 and Connacht deserved the win that day.
In April 2022, the Emirates Lions hosted Connacht, and it was a much tighter game. The match could have gone either way but the final score was 30-33. Cian Prendergast opened the scoring with a try after a minute played. The Lions’ poor start worsened as Ruan Dreyer conceded a penalty try and went to the sin bin. A Maxwane try just before halftime lifted the South African spirits.
In the second half, both sides scored penalties before Morne van der Berg got a much-needed score. Daly tried to restore the lead with a try in the 60th minute, but Edwill van der Merwe got in on the act, closely followed by Burger Odendaal. A Jordan Hendriske penalty got the game level after 70 minutes, but a Jack Carty three-pointer was enough to wrap the game up for the Irish side.
If the match on Saturday is anything like the first meeting between the clubs, then it is a game you don’t want to miss. However, a lot has changed since then and Connacht has the advantage as the host. The last time the Lions travelled to Galway, the Irish side walked away with the scoring. Could history repeat itself this weekend? Or do the Emirates Lions have an answer for the Westerners’ lethal attack?
Betting on this URC match won’t be straightforward thanks to the break by the Six Nations. Connacht used the break to steady the ship and find victories against the Bears, Cardiff, and Scarlets in the past three months. The Emirates Lions lost both matches to the Hollywoodbets Bulls but put in a massive performance against the Sharks. The score finished 40-10, and the Lions kept local rivals Sharks to a scoreless second half. They must bring that level of intensity this weekend to threaten a high-flying Connacht.
Connacht Rugby vs Lions Predictions
Prediction: Connacht 28-17 Emirates Lions
While the Lions won their last game in the URC, this trip to Connacht feels like a step too far. The Irish side is on a three-game winning streak in all competitions, including two victories in front of the home fans. We predict Connacht will take an early lead and a five-point advantage at halftime. From there, they will win and enjoy an 11-point advantage at the final whistle.
Predicting a rugby match is going to be exciting this week. With players returning from injury and international duty, the URC could throw some spanners into the works. However, this game seems one-sided, and we predict Connacht will come out on top. We don’t expect a thrashing, meaning any bet for an upset is ill-advised. However, this will be a close game as only four points separate the sides heading into this round.
Looking at the recent fixtures, Connacht has beaten the Lions on both occasions. If you examine each team across the season, Connacht looks more likely again. Both teams have experienced winning and losing streaks this season, but the Irish side has more results against the top half of the table. When the Lions won five games on the bounce, they played the likes of Zebre, the Dragons, and the Sharks. The previous Connacht three-game winning streak came against the Ospreys, Glasgow, and local rivals Ulster. We expect their current winning streak to continue with a hard-fought win against the Lions.
Up Next
🆚 @connachtrugby
🗓: Sat 23 Mar
⏰: 19:15
🏟 : Dexcom Stadium#CONvsLIO @Vodacom #URC #UnitedWeRise #LionsPride🦁 pic.twitter.com/lAyI3dcQZu— Lions (@LionsRugbyCo) March 19, 2024
Betting on the Lions is incredibly risky this week, especially since they last won a home game in early January 2024. At that time, Connacht was coming out of a rut, having lost five games in a row in all competitions. Since then, the Lions have lost four matches and only picked up one victory. Connacht has found form, including three wins in succession throughout the Six Nations break. While anything can happen after a pause in the United Rugby Championship, betting on an upset this week feels even more unlikely.
This will be a tough match for live betting as Connacht will probably lead from start to finish. Placing an in-play wager on the hosts will yield less the longer the match goes on. That rules out betting on the full-time result, but there are plenty of other markets to consider at our online betting site. If you want more guidance for live bets, check out the section below.
Connacht Rugby vs Lions Betting Tips
Connacht is the clear favourite to win this match. That is no surprise, given their league position and current form advantage over the Lions. Plus, the South African side has struggled on the road this season, which will be very hard to change when they travel to Galway on Saturday. Betting on Connacht to win has odds of 2/7. That will give you less than three euros in profit if you place a €10 bet. Making the same value wager on the Lions will return €38 with the odds at 14/5.
Betting on rugby union matches has been exciting recently as Ireland cruised to another Six Nations victory. However, now that the URC is returning, the challenge is predicting whether each match will go as planned. In the Connacht vs Lions game, we can see the South African side putting up a fight. But getting a winning result in Ireland feels like a step too far. They would need to play a sensational match, plus receive some fortune with sin bins or red cards from the referee.
If you are determined to bet on the URC, many options are available at Novibet. One way to increase your winnings is to look at the halftime market. Although easily overlooked, this betting option can yield more profit than a full-time wager and pays out before the game ends. Betting on Connacht to take at least a four-point lead at the break is worth 3/4. That is almost three times more winnings than an outright prediction on the Irish side.
Looking at the winning margin markets reveals an interesting prediction. The bookies estimate Connacht winning by 15 points or more at the final whistle. While the hosts could easily run away with the scoring, beating the Lions by this many points would be impressive. Instead, we think around 11 points will separate the teams at full-time.
If you are considering placing a rugby wager, why not do it at Novibet? We reward all new members with a welcome bonus, and this could be a fantastic week to claim yours. There are plenty of rugby union matches to enjoy this week, even if this fixture does not appeal to you. Examine our other URC predictions this week and consider an accumulator across multiple matches. If every match goes according to plan, this could be an excellent week to cash in on a rugby bet.
Connacht Rugby Team News
There has been plenty of good news for Connacht fans this month, as three players have committed their futures to the club. Paul Boyle and Peter Dooley signed deals to keep them in Galway until 2025. Plus Darragh Murray agreed to a two-year extension on Thursday, March 21. The other excellent news is that the Six Nations break gave players time to return to full training. Oisin McCormack, Shane Jennings, Colm Reilly, and Diarmuid Kilgallen are back in contention.
Even with four players returning, there are personnel on the injury list. Shayne Bolton, Oisin Dowling, and John Porch all had surgery recently. Dylan Tierney-Martin has a neck injury and is being assessed for surgery. Santiago Cordero and Mack Hansen are not ready, but Hansen is further down the road to recovery than Cordero. Last, Liam McNamara secured an early release from his contract and has returned to Australia.
Off to Europe on a serious mission.😤#LionsPride🦁 pic.twitter.com/uVPOt3RN5h
— Lions (@LionsRugbyCo) March 19, 2024
Emirates Lions Team News
The head coach, Ivan van Rooyen, has announced his 28-man squad for the upcoming tour against Connacht, the Ospreys, and a Challenge Cup fixture against Benetton. Henco van Wyk, Travis Gordon, Corné Fourie, and Ruan Venter were missing from the announcement. The Lions squad has some injured squad members who might recover in time for the tour. The players include Ruhan Straeuli, Rynhardt Jonker, Gianni Lombard, and Rabz Maxwane.
