Edinburgh Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Preview
Week four of the United Rugby Championship sees Edinburgh take on first-place Connacht. The Scottish side is hoping to bounce back from last week’s defeat and climb up from tenth in the league table. Connacht has surprised many with their fantastic start to the season. They sit alone at the top with a one-point advantage over Munster. This match on Saturday, November 11th, at 7:35 PM, is shaping up to be a significant fixture for both sides.
The game will take place in Edinburgh at the new Hive Stadium. The sports ground first opened in 2021 and has a capacity of 7,800 for rugby games. Looking at the recent form of each team, Edinburgh suffered their first defeat of the season to Leinster. Connacht shone once again as they came from behind to beat rivals Ulster 22-20. The bookies had Connacht as the underdog last week, and they face an uphill battle to get any points in Scotland.
Edinburgh Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Edinburgh vs Connacht has taken place 27 times since 2007. Each of these meetings has been in the United Rugby Championship, and there has only been one draw between the two sides. Edinburgh has a slight advantage with 14 wins over this period, two more than Connacht’s 12 victories.
However, even with Edinburgh’s historical advantage, the most recent fixture went the way of Connacht. The home side dispatched the Scottish challengers 41-26 on March 25th, 2023. The result was a statement given the heavy defeat Edinburgh inflicted when Connacht was last on their patch. In March the year before, Edinburgh annihilated Connacht 56-8. The scoreline is even more impressive considering the visitors took a 0-8 lead after an early yellow card to Mesu Kunavula.
Looking at the most recent meeting between the rugby teams, there is a lot to unpack. In the first half, Connacht established an early lead of 20-7. The game turned after a 49th-minute yellow card to Conor Oliver. Edinburgh closed the gap to 27-19, only eight points off the home side. Connacht received another yellow card with 55 minutes played for Oisin Dowling. Five minutes later, Emiliano Boffelli got a yellow card for the visitors, and Connacht capitalised. Before a late try by Edinburgh, Connacht had a comfortable lead of 41-19 with only two minutes on the clock. The final score included a 15-point advantage to Connacht who won 41-26.
Before you place an online bet on the rugby, let’s talk about the form of each side this season. Connacht has surprised many with their unbeaten start. They have beaten local rivals, Ulster, and triumphed over the Ospreys. Plus, they have already dispatched one Scottish side, a victory over Glasgow 34-26.
Edinburgh started strong, edging out both their first two games over the Dragons and Lions. However, they dropped points to Leinster after a poor first half. They were behind 21-6 at halftime and a strong second half was not enough to get the victory on the day. Edinburgh recovered to 36-27 at the full-time whistle.
Connacht had a tougher start to the season, which adds even more pressure for them to continue. Nobody expected Edinburg to get a result against Leinster, but they gave a good go of it after an early yellow card. Edinburgh has zero bonus points this season and a point difference of -3. Connacht has been far more dangerous, securing one bonus point and a point difference of +18.
Edinburgh Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Predictions
There is a clear favourite when examining the rugby odds at Novibet. Edinburgh is the bookies’ favourite with odds of 3/10 to win on the day. That means wagering €10 will only return €3 in profit, plus your stake. Connacht is sitting as the underdogs with odds of 13/5. Placing the same bet on Connacht to win will return €36. A draw seems the most unlikely option, with the bookies offering 22/1 for any wagers placed on a tie at the final whistle.
The last time Edinburgh hosted Connacht was in a one-sided contest. The home team enjoyed a 48-point advantage over the visitors. You would have to go as far back as 2020 for the last time Connacht won in Edinburgh, a 26-37 victory. In the last four meetings, the sides have shared two victories each, which shows the contest is a lot closer than the bookies are suggesting.
The most likely event is for Edinburgh to win and to do so by a clear margin. However, Connacht is in fine scoring form, and a repeat of the blowout they suffered in 2022 does not seem on the cards for this meeting. We predict it will be a close and tightly fought game, with Edinburgh holding on for a victory. The home side will win by a margin of ten or fewer points when the final whistle is blown.
Anyone looking for advice when placing live wagers on the action will have plenty to consider. Three of the last four matches between the two sides have seen over 60 points scored in total. Betting on multiple tries and penalties is not an option to overlook. Plus, in the last three matches, there has been one red card and four yellows. That suggests that the players take this matchup seriously and could let their tempers get the better of them. Placing a live bet on a yellow card seems like a risky but rewarding wager.
Betting on Connacht to continue the unbeaten run seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened in rugby. You can use the welcome bonus at Novibet to place your wager, which should reduce some risk. While we usually recommend against betting on the top of the table to lose, we think it’s too early in the season to judge this Connacht side. Remember, players are coming back from the World Cup now, so you can expect to see the competition ramp up to the end of the season.
Edinburgh Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Betting Tips
Betting on the United Rugby Championship is never straightforward. The bookies had Ulster as the favourites last week, even though Connacht won again to remain unbeaten this season. However, that was at home, and we are now talking about an away victory in Scotland. Online betting on the underdogs is always risky, even if they are first in the league. Reducing the amount you bet can help you cover your losses if the game goes the way the bookmaker is expecting.
Other than betting on a full-time result, there are plenty of other markets to consider. You can bet on the total number of points scored by both teams in the match. There is an odd/even market where you can win depending on whether there is an even or odd number of points scored. Betting on either total has similar returns with 17/20 for even. That means if you put down €20 on the game finishing with an even number of points, you could win as much as €37.
If you want to bet on Edinburgh to win, you can get greater returns by choosing the size of their winning margin. Edinburgh winning by 1-7 points or 8-14 has the same odds at 14/5. Ten euros on either wager will see €38 returned if your prediction is correct. Interesting, betting on a blowout has smaller returns. Edinburgh to win by 15 points or more is only worth 2/1, which means you will double the size of your stake, plus get the value of your bet back.
Betting on Edinburgh to win seems like the safest bet, but Connacht are top of the table for a good reason. However, there aren’t many that will tell you this fine form will last all season long. Could this be the week where they lose the top spot? Do not forget there is a long way to go in this season, and Edinburgh will want to put on a good show for the home fans.
Edinburgh Rugby Lineup
Newly appointed head coach Sean Everitt has a fair share of injury concerns in his squad. Hamish Watson is the latest addition to the list with a facial injury in the clash with Leinster. Darcy Graham, de Bruin, Skinner, and Steele are making strides to a return in November but are unavailable for this game. Emiliano Boffelli, Jones, Sweeny, and Neild are all expected to return in December. Good news for Edinburgh fans as Jamie Ritchie returned to training ahead of the clash with Connacht.
- Edinburgh Predicted Lineup: P. Schoeman, D. Cherry, W. Nel, G. Young, G. Gilchrist, T. Dodd, L. Crosbie, B. Vellacott, C. Shiel, B. Healy, D. van der Merwe, M. Currie, M. Bennett, W. Goosen, and B. Kinghorn.
Connacht Rugby Lineup
Head Coach Andy Friend made a few changes between the game with Glasgow and Ulster, but there remains a stable backbone on the team sheet. It seems unlikely that JJ Hanrahan will recover in time for the trip to Edinburgh, and there are several other injured players in the squad. Paul Boyle, Jansen, Bolton, Heffernan, and Cordero all remain unavailable. Jack Carty returned to action against Ulster and made an immediate impact with two tries.
- Connacht Predicted Lineup: D. Buckley, D. Tierney-Martin, J. Aungier, O. Dowling, J. Joyce, S. Hurley-Langton, C. Oliver, J. Butler, C. Blade, J. Carty, D. Kilgallen, C. Forde, T. Farrell, B. Ralston, and T. O’Halloran.
