Emirates Lions vs Leinster Rugby Preview
Following the two-week break caused by the cup competitions, the United Rugby Championship returns. This week, Emirates Lions vs Leinster Rugby is one of the biggest games to focus on. The league leaders travel to Johannesburg, South Africa, for another important match on Sunday, April 20th at 2:00 pm. With only five games left in the regular season, these next few matches are crucial for both sides.
Unfortunately, the Emirates Lions are on a losing streak following their exit from the European Rugby Challenge Cup. The only positive is they have enjoyed an extra week off to train and prepare for Leinster. The Irish side has only lost one match this calendar year and is on an eight-game unbeaten streak in all competitions. With the Lions this week and the Stormers the next, this SA tour will be a genuine test of Leinster’s qualities.
Emirates Lions vs Leinster Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
The two rugby union clubs have a limited history of previous fixtures. The sides faced off in February 2022 and April 2023. Both matches went to the Irish side, and Leinster will be eager to improve on their latest result against the Lions. The most recent meeting between the clubs came in South Africa. It was a high-scoring game, with 75 points registered at the final whistle. Both teams put up an incredible fight, and there was no way of knowing who would win.
The visitors wasted no time getting on the scoreboard, scoring a try inside the first two minutes. The Emirates Lions responded quickly, with scores from van der Merwe and a sensational solo run by Lombard. Turner got the second Irish score of the day, but the final ten minutes of the half belonged to the hosts. The Lions secured two more tries to lead 26-14 at the break. Nohamba assisted the first with a brilliant no-look reverse pass. The second was a solo effort, thanks to a powerful run from Horn.
Leinster came out of the dressing room hot with a Milne score. The Irish side was going through the phases edging closer to the try line. When the Lions players went to ground early, it provided an opening over the top of a tackle. They reduced the deficit to five points before a 54th-minute yellow card for Nick McCarthy created gaps in the Irish defence. Some overzealous defending ended with a yellow card for Chris Cosgrave and a penalty try for the Lions. With the Lions leading, Sam Prendergast pulled the strings for Leinster on his debut, kicking a superb pass for an easy try in the right corner.
With six minutes on the clock, some intricate passing unlocked the stubborn Lion’s defence. Cosgrave made up for his earlier mistake with a supreme try. He bullied his way over the line and just about touched the ball down to give Prendergast the chance to level the match. The 20-year-old made no mistake. It was 36 apiece with five to play. With the ball a meter out from the Lion’s posts, a defender oversteps the mark for a straightforward offside call. Leinster took the penalty and Prendergast kicked the ball between the posts with the clock in the red. They won the match 36-39 thanks to the late penalty.
The previous meeting in 2022 was more straightforward and there were only four tries across the game. Leinster opened the scoring inside the first ten with a Kearney try. The Emirates Lions hit back with two penalties to trail by one point at halftime. However, quick tries from Alaalatoa and Penny put the game out of reach for the visitors. A resilient performance allowed Leinster to hang on for a comfortable 21-13 win at home.
The Lions have struggled this season at home and away. Most recently, they lost on the road in the URC against the Ospreys and crashed out of the cup against Benetton. Defensively, the South African side needs to smarten up and the points will follow. There are no such concerns for Leinster after they obliterated Stade Rochelais 40-13 last weekend. Leinster will now face one of the most in-form sides in European rugby in the ERCC semifinal, the English Premiership leaders of Northampton Saints.
Emirates Lions vs Leinster Rugby Predictions
Prediction: Lions 28-33 Leinster
There is a clear gap in quality when comparing these two sides, and that has been clear all season. We predict Leinster to cruise to a victory in South Africa by five points or more. Playing any game below the equator is hard work, but there is something special with this Irish side. The ongoing string of results showcases exceptional teamwork, and we expect it to continue this weekend.
The Lions have lost six of their last ten games in all competitions. They lost home and away to the Ospreys in recent weeks, plus both fixtures against South African rivals, the Bulls. For the Lions to dig their teeth in this week against Leinster, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the season. Leinster had to work hard for a win in Johannesburg as recently as last year. However, the result against Stade Rochelais in the cup competition will have fired up the team. Leinster lost to La Rochelle in the 2022 and 2023 Champions Cup final. To end the French side’s streak of three consecutive finals will have meant a lot to the visitors.
The #RacetoEight in @URCOfficial_RSA gets interesting this weekend at Emirates Airline Park 🏉 Don't miss your chance to be part of the action and cheer Joburg’s favourite team into the Top 8! 🎟 Get your tickets now! https://t.co/yheM4D4AmZ#LionsPride🦁 pic.twitter.com/EP0gprNVZD
— Lions (@LionsRugbyCo) April 15, 2024
Our rugby prediction this week is based on league and cup form, plus it accounts for how each side has played so far this season. The Lions are now 11th in the URC, one point off Ulster in the final Champions Cup position. Also, they are the only side with a positive point difference out of the bottom eight clubs. This team can score points, with a point difference of +77 despite losing more games than won. We expect a similar performance this week as they will find plenty of gaps to score points but won’t be able to hold on for a win against Leinster.
We predict Leinster will take the lead in the first ten minutes of this game, but the Lions home crowd will encourage the side. With the help of the fans, the Emirates Lions will go in only a few points down at the break. From here, we expect the home side to take the lead, only to have the points snatched away by the league leaders. Both sides will work hard to score points, but a few moments of brilliance will win this game.
Emirates Lions vs Leinster Rugby Betting Tips
Betting on the URC this season has been straightforward for Leinster fans as the side has only lost two matches. The same does not apply to the Lions as they have lost seven games and only picked up six victories. While betting on the home side will have alluring odds this weekend, we can’t see the Emirates Lions overcoming Leinster. Betting on rugby matches requires luck and skill. However, this fixture feels straightforward.
Looking at the odds at our online sports betting site brings underdog betting into play. Surprisingly, the home side is the favourite this week, with odds of 8/11 for a full-time result. A €10 wager on the Lions will return €17.27. Betting on Leinster this week will more than double your money. With odds of 11/10, you stand to make €21 from the same value bet. A draw would be a surprise result and one that pays handsomely. With the odds at 20/1, you could make twenty times your stake if the match is level after 80 minutes.
One of the best ways to maximise your returns this week is to examine handicap betting. Our sports betting site forecasts this match to be tight. Going with a Leinster handicap of -4.5 will give you odds of 2/1. If Leinster wins this match by five points or more, your €10 stake returns €30. Also, you can bet on Leinster at -5 for this fixture. For this market to come true, Leinster must win by six points or more to avoid a draw.
Ok Joburg, our time is now. The mission? Top 8️⃣! #LionsPride🦁
🆚 @leinsterrugby
🏆: @URCOfficial_RSA
🗓: Sat, 20 April
⏰: 15:00
🎟: https://t.co/yheM4D42xr#LionsPride🦁 pic.twitter.com/hqjFQ1u2SE— Lions (@LionsRugbyCo) April 12, 2024
Also, you can explore the half-time/full-time market if you trust our prediction. This option allows you to bet on the outcome of each half. You could bet on Leinster to win both periods or for the Bulls to take the lead at the break. Either option offers considerably greater returns than an outright prediction, and if Leinster wins both 40 minutes, you could make €65 from your ten-euro bet. Sign up at Novibet and use your welcome bonus on this event to reduce the risk.
Emirates Lions Team News
It has not been the tidiest year for the Lions on the field, but the club has been busy behind the scenes. 18 players in the Emirates Lions squad signed contract extensions, with every new deal running until 2026. Several young and experienced players received improved deals, including Edwill van der Merwe, Ruben Schoeman, and Marius Louw.
Four players will depart the club at the end of the season. Emmanuel Tshituka and Jordan Hendriske will move to the Sharks, plus Hanru Sirgel is going to Grenoble. Willem Alberts announced his retirement at the end of the season at 40. Also, Rhynardt Rijnsburger retired from rugby at the spritely age of 22 in January. The rising Lions star experienced deep vein thrombosis and had to call it quits on a promising career.
Leinster Rugby Team News
Head Coach Leo Cullen has provided an injury update ahead of the clash in South Africa. Charlie Ngatai and Jimmy O’Brien are edging closer to a return from their respective injuries. Garry Ringrose is another player who might appear this weekend following his shoulder injury. Recently, Ross Byrne and Hugo Keenan picked up minor injuries and will not make the game against the Lions. Also, don’t expect Alex Soroka, Tommy O’Brien, and James Ryan to be back this weekend.
