England vs New Zealand Preview
England will face the All-Blacks in a stern test at Twickenham this weekend. The Red Roses play New Zealand on Saturday, November 2nd in their Autumn Nations Series opener. It’s a tough challenge for Steve Borthwick’s side against rugby union’s most iconic team.
This is a compelling clash because both nations are in transition. England is showing signs of improvement under Borthwick. Meanwhile, Scott Robertson is trying to bring back New Zealand’s aura of invincibility. Despite some recent setbacks, the All-Blacks are favourites. However, England will fancy their chances at home.
Remember, the ANS brings a four-week pause to club-level rugby. We have released an Autumn Nations Series predictions guide to help you get your bets in order. Check that out if you are looking for some insights into the test series.
England vs New Zealand Key Stats and Head-to-Head
This is arguably the clash between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere’s most visible sides. England knows this team well because their last two games were against the All-Blacks in a Summer Test series. They lost both matches but can count themselves misfortunate. The first meeting saw them lose 16-15 in a nail-biting clash. Then they suffered a 24-17 defeat in the following game.
There’s no shame in that because it’s always challenging to beat New Zealand in enemy territory. However, England hopes to improve their dismal record against the All-Blacks. New Zealand has won 10 of their meetings since 2010. England only has one victory in that period with one draw. History isn’t on their side.
However, the good news for England is that this is one of the weakest New Zealand sides we’ve seen in a long time. Robertson’s side dropped back-to-back defeats against South Africa in the Rugby Championship. They also suffered a shock loss against Argentina. However, they’ve rebounded with two victories over the Wallabies before smashing Japan 64-19 last weekend.
‘Razor’ Robertson is trying to stamp his identity on this All-Blacks’ side. We’ve seen the likes of Cortez Ratima and Wallace Sititi emerge this season in the iconic jersey. Caleb Clark is another exciting talent. As ever, New Zealand has incredible depth, but ‘Razor’ is still trying to work out his strongest combination.
Unlike New Zealand, it’s been a while since England has played an international game. But they have a more settled lineup under Borthwick. Marcus Smith is emerging as a key leader at fly-half. Tom Curry and Ben Earl add a physical edge to the back-row. England hasn’t beaten New Zealand at Twickenham since 2012. But they drew with the All-Blacks 25-25 in a pulsating 2022 encounter.
Bath Captain Ben Spencer will start for England for the first time. The scrum-half partners Marcus Smith. The 32-year-old replaces Northampton’s injured Alex Mitchell. Spencer is a veteran but has been in scintillating form this season. It’s a tremendous opportunity for him at number 9.
England vs New Zealand Predictions
Predicted Score: England 15 – 21 New Zealand
New Zealand won both their last two meetings with England and they’re the favourites ahead of this game. However, this doesn’t tell the full story. They were on a knife’s edge and could have gone either way.
Our rugby prediction is that New Zealand will win this game but it will be very close. England will probably lose by a try or less in another heartbreaking defeat. The main reason we’re choosing the All-Blacks is not their past two victories over the Red Roses. It’s because they’ve played eight matches since that test series.
They will probably be sharper than England because they’ve been much more active. Borthwick’s men haven’t played together since the All-Blacks series. They lack the team-building experience of playing together and gelling on the field. However, there’s a chance that this will be an advantage for England.
Sometimes a good rest is what players need. They’ve had a few weeks off in the summer and now they’re back with their Premiership clubs. Meanwhile, England has a more settled attacking unit than New Zealand. It’s simple to predict Borthwick’s lineup even before he announces it. Their counter-attacking abilities are excellent with George Furbank and Tommy Freeman clinical on the break.
It wouldn’t be a major shock if England pulled off an underdog victory in this game. If New Zealand loses one more game in 2024, it will be the most they’ve lost in a year. ‘Razor’ has plenty of goodwill, but this would be a rough start to his tenure. We think this is a game too early for England. Their chances would be better if this was their second Autumn International.
All Blacks vs Japan 2024 Haka pic.twitter.com/qAzP7n6zD8
— NZStarWarsLOTRn00b (@NZRugbyVidss) October 26, 2024
The battle between Tupou Vaa’I and Maro Itoje will be a fascinating clash. Another big question is who will start at fly-half for New Zealand? ‘Razor’ is favouring Damian McKenzie these days but may turn to Beauden Barrett for his experience. New Zealand also has a habit of going through periods without scoring. This is something they can’t afford against a team of England’s physicality.
England vs New Zealand Betting Tips
New Zealand is the favourite to win this ANS match on our sports betting platform. It’s 4/7 for them to win outright. A successful €10 wager would make a €5.71 profit. We think the odds should be slightly closer because the last two games were tight. This also isn’t the most settled version of the All-Blacks.
The All-Blacks’ recent activity and improvements suggest they should win this game. Betting on New Zealand is logical but check out other markets. An over-under wager on the number of points could be a good option. We don’t think this will be the highest-scoring game because of England’s defensive capabilities.
Consider a -3.5 handicap on the All-Blacks at 9/10. This is more lucrative than a simple match result wager, and they should pass this mark in a victory. There is an element of risk because they only beat England by a point in the first match of the previous series. The sides also played a tie at Twickenham relatively recently.
Many players like betting on the winning margin but our score prediction suggests this will be a tight game. It’s 12/5 for New Zealand to win by one to seven points. A €10 stake could make a significant €24 profit. It’s riskier than handicap betting, but there’s a bigger outcome. This could be an excellent prop bet.
England will fancy their chances of causing an upset and enter this ANS game as live underdogs. It’s 7/5 for them to shock the All-Blacks and place ‘Razor’ under pressure. This would turn €10 into €24. It wouldn’t surprise us if they secured a tight victory because they’ve quality in both rows.
We’d also expect a similar one-to-seven-point winning margin. It’s 3/1 for them to beat New Zealand by this amount. A successful €10 wager would make a sizeable €30 profit, so this is very tempting. The kicking game will be crucial in this match. Neither Marcus Smith nor New Zealand’s fly-half can afford to miss penalties.
https://twitter.com/EnglandRugby/status/1851277893256503653
Players should also check out the live betting options during this game. New Zealand will start as favourites, but the odds may shift if England snatches an early try. One red card or injury could change everything online. Another option is creating an accumulator with Scotland to beat Fiji if you are going to bet on the Autumn Nations tests. This would raise the stakes and increase your potential profit.
England Team News and Predicted Lineup
Steve Borthwick announced his starting XV early for this clash with New Zealand. He opted for physicality with Ben Earl and Tom Curry in the back-row. Marcus Smith is in command of the No. 10 jersey. Ben Spencer starts at scrum-half for the first time for England after Alex Mitchell’s neck injury. Henry Slade also returns from a neck problem.
- Predicted Lineup: Ellis Genge, Jamie George, Will Stuart, Maro Itoje, George Martin, Chandler Cunningham-South, Tom Curry, Ben Earl, Ben Spencer, Marcus Smith, Tommy Freeman, Ollie Lawrence, Henry Slade, Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, and George Furbank.
New Zealand Team News and Predicted Lineup
‘Razor’ has plenty of decisions to make ahead of this game. We’re likely to see several changes from the side that smashed Japan. Stephen Perofeta had a quiet game against the Brave Blossoms and should drop out. Caleb Clarke should return to the starting lineup. Samipeni Finau was outstanding in that game, but Robertson will probably change his back-row. It’s a battle between Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie at fly-half.
- Predicted Lineup: Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor, Tyrel Lomax, Tupou Vaa’i, Patrick Tuipulotu, Wallace Sititi, Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Cam Roigard, Beauden Barrett, Anton Lienert Brown, Rieko Ioane, Mark Tele’a, Caleb Clarke, and Sevu Reece.
