This weekend the Harlequins host Ulster in the final round of the Investec Champions Cup group stage. Only four teams move on to the lockout stage of the tournament, so avoiding defeat could make a vast difference this weekend. The match takes place at 1 pm this Saturday, January 20, at the famous Twickenham Stoop Stadium.
The home team has already qualified, following a resounding bonus point victory at Cardiff last weekend. They still have something to play for. The higher up the group you finish, the more favourable your draw becomes. However, Ulster is fighting for their lives following a massive defeat at the hands of Toulouse a week ago. The Northern Irish side must win to stay in the competition, or they could find themselves in the Challenge Cup.
Harlequin FC vs Ulster Rugby Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Looking at the head-to-head history between these sides does not give much of an edge. These two sides last faced off in the European Challenge Cup in 2021. The Harlequins were on the wrong side of a hammering in a game that finished 21-57. Interestingly, Ulster has won the last six meetings dating back to 2009.
Looking at the most recent group games, Toulouse resoundingly beat Ulster at home last Saturday night. Despite the natives trying to upset the travelling French side, Toulouse looked the far better side. The match was all but over in the first half, as the away side ran in three tries before the break. With the score at 10-22, Toulouse talisman Dupont then touched down after an excellent team move a few minutes after the break. Even with a late resurgence from Ulster, the final score was still bleak viewing as they lost 24-48.
It was a different weekend for Harlequins as they travelled to the Welsh capital to face Cardiff. Welsh rugby is in the doldrums at the moment, but the home support was huge for Cardiff. It looked like there could be an upset on the cards too, as the home side was leading 15-7 early in the first half. The Harlequins’ power came to the fore and despite the good start from the Welsh side, they trailed by 13 at the break. The second half was one-sided as the Harlequins flexed their muscles. Dangerman Marcus Smith started the onslaught as he scored the first of four second-half tries. In the end, the London side strolled to an easy victory in a game that finished 15-54.
There are new tournament rules for fans and clubs to contend with. They state that teams in the same league will not face off in the group. That has worked against Cardiff who could take home the wooden spoon this weekend. That means Cardiff won’t face Ulster and Harlequins will not play fellow Premiership team Bath.
A good indicator of how these teams stack up is to examine the two games in common. Harlequins battled for a very impressive away victory in Paris against Racing 92. Ulster beat Racing more convincingly but with the advantage of playing at home. The Harlequins were also on the wrong side of a thrashing when Toulouse came to London. The French side scored in the high forties, just like they did in Belfast last weekend. While there are five points between the sides in the league, they are a lot more similar than you would think.
You can only beat what’s in front of you, however, and Harlequins have done a much better job of that. They have exceeded expectations so far this year in the Premiership and have booked their place in the knockout stages of the Champions Cup with a game to spare. Ulster has good league form but they would have expected to finish second in this group and even challenge Toulouse for the top spot. That leaves us with a tasty matchup with both sides facing different motivating factors. One is hoping to continue a dream season while the other is hoping to keep theirs alive.
Harlequin FC vs Ulster Rugby Predictions
Now we get to the interesting part as we can bet on rugby that is effectively knock-out. As we have touched on, if you take out the Cardiff result, these two teams are evenly matched. However, if we are going to take momentum into account, Harlequins have more confidence in going into this game. Ulster seemed to be on a good run after a historic win away to Leinster, but Toulouse brought them crashing down to earth.
On the other end of things, Harlequins are looking to make it 4 wins on the bounce. The win in Cardiff followed up by Premiership wins against Newcastle and Gloucester shows how dangerous the English side is this season. Another bizarre decision made by the competition means that this match-up takes place a day earlier than the Toulouse and Bath match. This means no scoreboard-watching by the Harlequins. They will try to put as much pressure on Bath as possible.
Last week, we predicted Ulster to maintain a pace against Toulouse, but the French side ran away with it. This week, Ulster does not have the advantage of playing in front of a home crowd. That means if a result were to come, it would have to be earned the hard way. Plus, the sports betting sites have now turned against the Northern Irish side. The Harlequins are the big favourites to win this match on Saturday, with odds of 1/4. The South London side has been a surprise package this year. Betting for Ulster to win seems incredibly unlikely at 14/5.
Harlequin FC vs Ulster Rugby Betting Tips
Betting on the ERCC this weekend is trickier than usual. Every side will want to win as this is the last game to earn a favourable spot in the draw. Teams that finish higher up the league get home advantage and a better chance at playing an underperforming side. We think the sportsbooks have inflated the odds against Ulster. On the one hand, Harlequins are coming off a decisive victory against a poor side. But, a very good French team hammered Ulster last week. Remember, Toulouse also defeated the Harlequins by an embarrassing scoreline.
If you don’t fancy an underdog bet on Ulster, there are plenty of other markets to consider. For starters, the handicap bet this week offers better returns than placing a wager on the match result. Harlequin FC to overcome a -2.5 handicap has odds of 4/11. That is more profit for you as the match result for the home side was 1/4. An even more rewarding bet this week is the winning margin wager. Betting on Harlequin FC to win by one to seven points after 80 minutes has odds of 14/5. That means a ten euro wager will yield as much as €38 if successful.
Other markets to consider this week include the total bet. This is where you can bet on there being over a certain number of points scored or under. With Ulster desperate to stay in this competition, they could look to score big early in the game and get points on the board. If you think it won’t be a high-scoring match, you can bet on there being fewer than 30 match points scored by both teams. You could also look at the odd or even wager, which you have a 50-50 chance of getting right. Either wager is a fantastic option for new players looking to use a welcome bonus.
If you are going to wait until game day, there are plenty of live bets to consider. Marcus Smith only missed one kick last week against Cardiff. There will be plenty of good wagers offering interesting returns as the game unfolds. Ulster’s Nick Timoney scored a late try last week. He is looking sharp this season and could do it again. There are dozens of well-paying live markets to consider this weekend.
Harlequin FC Team News and Predicted Lineup
Harlequins announced the loan signing of Gloucester lock, Arthur Clark, earlier this week. While Clark will not feature until the next Premiership outing, it still shows the problems Quins have in that area. Stephan Lewies and Dino Lamb picked up injuries, so the team is light in that position.
- Harlequins Predicted Lineup: Baxter, Walker, Collier, Launchbury, Hammond, Chisholm, Evans, Dombrandt, Care, Smith, Anderson, Esterhuizen, Beard, David, and Green.
Ulster Rugby Team News and Predicted Lineup
Ulster doesn’t exactly have a clean bill of health themselves. The medical staff ruled out Sean Reffell and Dave Ewers after picking up injuries against Toulouse. Last week, Rob Herring sustained an injury during training and is unavailable. In better news for the Irish side, back-row Dave McCann returned to training and is fit and available for selection.
- Ulster Predicted Lineup: Kitshoff, Stewart, O’Toole, Treadwell, Henderson, Rea, O’Connor, Timoney, Cooney, Burns, Stockdale, McCloskey, Hume, Baloucoune, and Lowry.
