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Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates Preview
Ian Machado Garry meets Carlos Prates in the main event of a UFC Fight Night on April 27th at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Prates has built a scary reputation in the welterweight division so far, while Garry is looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career.
The Brazilian fighter has won all of his UFC fights by knockout so far and has incredible power. Garry proved he can tangle with the best despite losing to Shavkat Rakhmanov in December. Can the Irishman bounce back in Kansas City, or will Prates continue to barrel through his competition in search of a UFC ranking?
Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates Prediction
Fight prediction: Garry by decision or submission
Our best MMA prediction is for Ian Machado Garry to win this fight. Garry’s previous bout against Shavkat Rakhmonov demonstrated how good he is despite losing. Stepping in on short notice, Garry showcased his ability to defend against takedowns and even threatened submissions.
Rakhamnov is one of the most feared fighters in the division, and Garry had chances to win that fight. He proved his readiness to face top-tier opponents, of which Prates is yet to step in the octagon with. This looks like a tightly contested fight on paper, but Garry will use his experience to gain an edge.
Garry’s strategy will likely focus on maintaining distance, utilising his superior footwork and striking accuracy to outpoint Prates. By controlling the pace and avoiding prolonged exchanges in the pocket, Garry can neutralise Prates’s power and capitalise on openings. Prates has a four-inch reach advantage, meaning he will probably be the man pushing forward. However, Garry is an excellent counter-puncher. He can withstand the Brazilian’s pressure and force him back with his counter-striking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJ3QUsuwi9w&pp=ygUJaWFuIGdhcnJ5
However, Prates’ power cannot be underestimated. He is riding a wave of 10-straight KO/TKO victories, four of them coming in the UFC. The Brazilian is nearly flatlining opponents with his power. Garry is a skilled fighter, but one step forward into that vicious right hand is all it takes to end the fight. Prates has not gone beyond the second round in over five years. Garry must not get mixed up in a firefight with the Brazilian.
Garry proved how far his grappling has come in his last fight. He can use that to avoid any significant damage from Prates, who has a lot of power in his punches. The Future can use his grappling offensively and defensively, nullifying Prates when stepping forward and initiating if he steps back.
The Nightmare’s fighting style is aggressive and forward-moving, often pressuring opponents with relentless strikes. However, this approach can sometimes lead to openings that skilled opponents can exploit. Garry has great fight IQ, and Prates is untested against this level of grappling in the UFC.
Prates is also untested in five-round fights. Garry’s cardio and conditioning are among the best in the division. We predict he will steer clear of any big shots from Prates in the opening rounds and gas him out heading into the championship rounds. From there, his grappling will be a huge asset.
A still-fresh Garry can hold him against the cage and wear him down before looking for a submission. He was seconds away from sinking in a choke on Rakhmanov, who is one of the best grapplers at welterweight. The Future will drag Prates into uncharted territory and use his experience to see out a decision victory or submit his fatigued opponent.
Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates Fight Outcome
Ian Machado Garry is poised to secure a statement victory over Carlos Prates. Garry’s technical striking, movement, and fight IQ are the key advantages that should carry him to a win. He will use his footwork to manage distance and mix in grappling to neutralise Prates’ power. The Brazilian will be aggressive, but the Future will be elusive and gas him out. He should wear Prates down with accumulation if Garry stays disciplined and avoids prolonged exchanges in the pocket.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmWa8x42crg&pp=ygUJaWFuIGdhcnJ5
Carlos Prates thrives in chaotic exchanges and has lethal knockout power, but Garry is adept at neutralising pressure fighters. Expect Garry to avoid brawls, instead using angles, feints, and fast counters to frustrate Prates and systematically pick him apart.
Garry’s ability to read his opponents and adjust mid-fight will serve him well. This is especially important against Prates, who has shown defensive gaps when forced to fight off the back foot. While a decision win is likely, a late stoppage could come if Garry looks for a submission on a tired Prates.
Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates Betting Tips
- Fight Result – Ian Machado Garry to win: The online betting odds are tight between these fighters. Garry is the narrow favourite, worth 3/4, while Prates is worth 20/21. We are predicting Garry to win. The comparison in their resume gives the edge to Garry, who has defeated more skilled fighters. His performance against Rakhamnov was also impressive despite the loss. Bet on Garry to win this fight.
- Method of Victory – Garry by submission: Garry proved in his last fight that his grappling game has improved. Prates is not as skilled as Rakhamnov on the ground, and Garry came very close to sinking in a choke on the Kazakh fighter. While a decision is likely, there is a clear avenue for Garry to get the first submission victory in his UFC career. He can submit the Brazilian in the late rounds if he stays disciplined. Anyone betting on the UFC should back the Future to submit Prates.
- Total Rounds – Over 4.5: The MMA betting markets will be split on the over/under. Prates has ended all of his UFC fights within two rounds, while Garry has fought to decisions in six of his nine fights in the promotion. Garry has a strong chin and is good at avoiding significant damage. Anyone betting on the over/under should wager on over 4.5 rounds in this fight.
Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates struggled for consistency in the early years of his career. The Nightmare bounced around regional promotions in Brazil between 2012 and 2014, going 5-4 in his first nine fights. However, his fortunes turned around when he began fighting in Asia. He went 6-2 in eight fights between Thailand, China, and Singapore, including two victories in the famed ONE Championship promotion.
Two impressive KO wins in LFA caught Dana White’s eye. He appeared on the Contender Series in 2023, knocking out Mitch Ramirez in the second round and earning a UFC contract. Prates has been on a tear ever since. He made his debut with a second-round KO victory over Trevin Giles in February 2024.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vcNnWB1duk&pp=ygUNY2FybG9zIHByYXRleg%3D%3D
The Brazilian followed up with three more KO victories in the following nine months, including wins over Neil Magny and Li Jingliang. Prates has earned Performance of the Night bonuses in all four of his UFC fights and now faces top-10 competition for the first time in his career.
Prates Previous Five Fights
- Def. Neil Magny, via KO (RD 1)
- Def. Li Jingliang, via KO (RD 2)
- Def. Charles Radtke, via KO (RD 1)
- Def. Trevin Giles, via KO (RD 2)
- Def. Mitch Ramirez, via TKO (RD 2)
Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry first made a name for himself in the famed UK promotion Cage Warriors. He made his debut as a 21-year-old, winning a unanimous decision over James Sheehan. The charismatic Portmarnock man continued to build his reputation with a series of stoppage victories, winning by technical submission and TKO in the second and first rounds of his next two fights.
He worked his way up the Cage Warriors welterweight ranks, winning three fights by KO/TKO between September 2020 and March 2021. That earned him a welterweight title fight in the promotion after just six professional fights. Garry beat Jack Grant for the belt in June 2021 and was quickly poached by the UFC.
The Future made his debut in the biggest MMA promotion in the world at UFC 268. He announced himself to the world by defeating Jordan Williams with a first-round KO. Garry won his next four fights before meeting Neil Magny in August 2023 for the biggest test of his career so far. He won a convincing unanimous decision before defeating the highly rated Geoff Neal and Michael ‘Venom’ Page. The Irishman lost the first fight of his career in his most recent bout, but put on an impressive performance in defeat.
Garry Previous Five Fights
- Lost. Shavkat Rakhmonov, via Unanimous Decision
- Def. Michael Page, via Unanimous Decision
- Def. Geoff Neal, via Split Decision
- Def. Neil Magny, via Unanimous Decision
- Def. Daniel Rodriguez, via TKO (RD 1)
