Ireland Rugby vs New Zealand Preview
The Autumn Nations Series is underway and Ireland faces New Zealand in their first of four clashes. Kick-off is at 8:10 pm on Friday, November 8 at the Aviva Stadium. Irish fans will fancy their chances of winning against one of the best sides in world rugby.
New Zealand began the ANS with a match at Twickenham. It was a feisty game with lots of big tackles and scintillating buildup play. The All Blacks narrowly came out on top after a spirited England performance, but they looked far from their best. This opens the door for Ireland, who will hope to start the series of friendlies with a win.
Ireland Rugby vs New Zealand Predictions
Score Prediction: Ireland 28-18 New Zealand
Irish rugby is at a fantastic point as we enter the Autumn Internationals. There is an abundance of talent for head coach Andy Farrell to choose from, even though he will depart the role in December. Farrell has been remarkable since his appointment in 2019, and we expect the team to go all out for their head coach during this series. Our rugby prediction is for Ireland to win by ten points against the All Blacks.
New Zealand put on a good show in their opening match last weekend. Taking on England at Twickenham is easier said than done, but they often looked the better side. They gave away far too many penalties for it to be comfortable and still ran out as the deserved winners.
Against Ireland, they will struggle to score as easily as they did last round. The men in green should marshal the front line, especially as they will get to review the All Blacks’ opening game and come up with a strong plan. New Zealand has depth and some incredibly powerful players. However, they looked more toothless than we are used to seeing from this legendary side.
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To avoid playing down just how good the All Blacks are, this is an English side in transition. The All Blacks have changed manager recently too, but they still looked off their very best. If Ireland can hit them in the same areas England did, they will find more success. The Irish front line should limit the number of clear breakaways and reduce the total points on the scoreboard.
However, Mark Telea is a major threat to Ireland. He was sensational against England, and they had no way of stopping him from controlling and ultimately winning the match. Even when they had the number 14 tackled by the touchline, he miraculously pivoted and touched the ball home from a long way out to win the game. If Ireland hopes to get off to a winning start, they must silence Telea.
While our Autumn Nations Series prediction is for Ireland to get through all four games without a defeat, this match poses the biggest risk. With Andy Farrell looking forward to starting his new role with the Lions in December, will he get his troops playing for his cause before he departs? We think he has earned the respect of the players and should start the series with a win. A draw is also an option if Ireland gets off to a slow start.
Ireland Rugby vs New Zealand Betting Tips
Anyone betting on the rugby international friendlies this week has a fantastic opportunity. There are six matches in Week 2 of the series, including some exciting matchups. It could be a good time to put an accumulator down across multiple events. If you want more insight before you place an acca, we have predictions for the England vs Australia game and Scotland vs South Africa.
Match Result
Betting on rugby union games this weekend will be a lot of fun but let’s focus just on Ireland vs New Zealand. As the match takes place at the Aviva Stadium, the Irish side enters this match as the clear favourite. Backing Ireland to win (2/5) will return €14 from a ten-euro bet. Although this is not the most rewarding wager at our online sportsbook, it still offers decent returns for the home side.
New Zealand to win (2/1) is certainly the more appealing option. While the Southern Hemisphere side is a long way from home, they have historically done well against Ireland. That has changed in recent years, making this market particularly risky. However, this could be a fantastic bet if Ireland has an off day. A draw in this fixture is worth 18/1, something to consider if you think it will be a cagey affair.
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Handicap
Our rugby prediction is for a ten-point margin between the sides. This typically offers fantastic returns at Novibet, but the handicap markets remain incredibly tight. Ireland -1.5 (1/2) would return €15 from a €10 bet. Betting on the -9.5 handicap for the home side returns €25 from the same stake. A ten-euro price difference over ten points does not seem worth the risk. We prefer one of the middle markets, such as Ireland -5.5 (5/6).
Looking at the travelling side, they won’t be in touching distance for this game. Betting on New Zealand +1.5 (7/5) will yield €24. That is not tempting enough for a stake, but it shows how the gap is likely to be well over a try. Betting on Ireland is the way to go, and there could even be a blowout if Farrell gets his troops together.
Winning Margin
If you are going to bet on this game, the winning margin offers the best returns. Backing Ireland to win by 1 to 7 points (12/5) would return €34. This is a safer option as four points separated the sides in their last meeting during the 2023 World Cup. However, we prefer Ireland to win by 8 to 14 points (11/4). The last two International friendly matches saw gaps of ten points or more in Ireland’s favour and we predict a similar result this weekend.
If New Zealand were to win this game, it would be by five points or fewer. We do not expect the All Blacks to run away with the scoring as the Irish line will be much tougher to crack than England’s. Betting on New Zealand to win by 1 to 7 points (18/5) would give you €46 from a €10 bet. Any other margin is not worth the risk.
Live Betting
One option we have not mentioned so far is live betting. As there are a lot of unknowns about the Irish side, you can wait until the game begins before placing your bet. The starting team and whether the players will get behind Farrell so close to his departure remains to be seen. Waiting until half-time or ten minutes into the game could be a safer option.
If you are going to bet live, you can investigate some player props. We fancy Mark Telea to lead the line as the focal point of the All Blacks attack again. He was the difference-maker against England and will look to dominate throughout the match. Wallace Sititi also looked like an incredible threat on the ball. He was quick, evasive, and played like a youthful Bundee Aki. For Ireland, James Lowe is often a safe bet for a try but check out who else thrives during the game against one of the best teams in the world.
Ireland Rugby vs New Zealand Key Statistics and Head-To-Head
The last time Ireland took on New Zealand was in the previous Rugby World Cup. It was a fantastic quarter-final for the neutral as both sides delivered in a blockbuster first half. The All Blacks led early on with penalties and a try. Ireland responded with a brilliant solo score from Bundee Aki to close the gap to three points before an Ardie Savea try extended the deficit. Aaron Smith went to the sin bin, giving the Irish side the chance to go in at the break just one point behind.
The second half began with the scores at 17-18 and the pace of the game slowed. But it was the All Blacks who broke the deadlock first with a Will Jordan try. The Kiwis broke through a sloppy Irish defensive line from a line out and punished the boys in green on the world stage. A penalty try for Ireland gave hope to fans as Codie Taylor went to the sin bin. However, New Zealand was too robust for Ireland and a further penalty was the last action. It finished 24-28 and Ireland will hope for revenge on Friday.
The previous meeting between these sides took place in July 2022. Ireland took on New Zealand in a three-test series, which started with a 42-19 win for the All Blacks. The travelling side turned it around in the next two fixtures, winning 12-23 and 22-32, to claim a historic win. This was the first time Ireland won a series in New Zealand, ever.
The Irish team meant business in the first half, scoring three tries and keeping the hosts to just one penalty. It was 3-22 at the break and New Zealand hoped for a second-half comeback. They managed three scores in the second 40 minutes, but a further Irish try sunk the All Blacks and Ireland won by ten points. This was a historic win for Ireland, and we fancy their chances of emulating that performance this week.
