Leinster Rugby vs Connacht Preview
The United Rugby Championship is back, and undefeated Leinster takes on provincial rivals Connacht. Kick-off is in Dublin at 5:30 pm on December 21st. Will we see a close game or will Leinster walk away with another easy win?
The Irish giants began their European Rugby Champions Cup with clinical results against the Bears and Clermont. Connacht also enjoyed their Challenge Cup foray, beating Zebre and USAP by convincing margins. However, there are already 16 points between the teams in the URC table. Can Connacht slow the runaway league leaders on Saturday?
Leinster Rugby vs Connacht Predictions
Score Prediction: Leinster 24-14 Connacht
Looking at the recent form of both teams, there can only be one winner in this game. Leinster is enjoying an unbeaten run this season, winning nine games in a row. There is no reason this won’t stretch to ten when they face Connacht at home. Our rugby prediction is for Leinster to win by ten points or more in Dublin.
Connacht, like Munster and Leinster, have struggled so far this season. All Irish sides, except for Leinster, have lost more URC games than they have won, making this round crucial for their campaigns this season. However, Connacht already fell short against Leinster in October when they hosted the league leaders. It finished 12-33 and there was little fight from the Galway side all game.
Leinster is going from strength to strength. They are not blowing sides out of the water with humongous scorelines. Instead, there seems to be a focus on doing the basics right. This has been unmistakable all season, but the ERCC performances highlighted their approach to big games. Leinster scored 50 points across the two games but only conceded 19. Connacht registered 74 points but conceded 30. This is the difference between a good side and one that has an unbeaten record.
Looking at the players on both sides, Leinster has the quality and depth to go gun-ho and rock the RDS. However, their approach is more measured, reducing the opportunities for the opposition to score. That’s not to say they are impenetrable, but they have tightened up significantly compared to the other Irish clubs.
Leo Cullen is keen to avoid the disaster of last season. Leinster went on a similar devastating run that came apart after the festive period. It ended with no URC title and no ERCC trophy either. It looks like he has adapted his approach to guarantee silverware.
However, nothing is guaranteed when betting on rugby matches. Connacht has a fighting chance in this game to perform a shock upset. They will have to do it away from Galway, which will make the task tricker, but they have done it in the past. If you look at the January 2021 fixture, Connacht got the job done on the road. While Leinster has won the last ten meetings in a row, an upset could be on the cards.
Our prediction hinges on how brightly Connacht can start. In Leinster’s last three matches, the opposition was the first to get the points on the board. If Connacht can rock the league leader’s confidence early on, they stand a chance of surprising us all this weekend. However, if Connacht only gets a single try or penalty on the board, Leinster will have no problem hunting them down. If you are going to back the underdog, consider betting live if Connacht takes a double-digit lead before halftime.
Leinster Rugby vs Connacht Betting Tips
When two Irish teams face off, we usually expect a scintillating game. Often, the two provincial rivals battle it out on the field, putting up a fantastic display for the neutral. However, anyone betting on the United Rugby Championship this week will know that one team is a clear favourite heading into this match.
Match Result
Leinster enter this round of URC as the favourite. Not only are the league leaders seven points clear of second, but they are the only unbeaten side and remain 16 points ahead of Connacht. Betting on Leinster to win is the right move this weekend. However, it is also the least profitable.
Backing the league leaders to continue their unbeaten run this week is worth 1/13. That means a €10 bet will only return €10.80, including the value of your stake. Usually, when matches are this one-sided, the underdog has appealing returns. That is the case for this fixture, as the same value bet on Connacht to win returns €75.
Handicap
The handicap market is a fantastic option when making sports bets. In this fixture, Leinster -15.5 is worth 22/25. This market requires the home side to win by 16 points or more for the market to be a winner, which would yield €18.80 from a ten-euro bet.
When there is a clear favourite, placing a handicap on the underdog can be a good move. That way, if the game is tighter than anticipated, you can end up with a winner. In our score prediction, we see ten points between the sides. If you went for Connacht +9.5, you could secure €28 if they were successful. However, you need the visitors to lose by nine points or fewer.
Winning Margin
Betting on Leinster to win the game is the most obvious wager. You can estimate the winning margin to extend the returns from a one-sided fixture. Leinster to win by 8 to 14 points is worth 13/5 at Novibet. This will ten your ten-euro stake into €36. The more likely option is for the home side to run away with the scoring and finish 15 points or more ahead of Connacht. However, we predict that the two teams will be closer on the scoreboard than the odds suggest.
Leinster Rugby vs Connacht Head-To-Head and Key Stats
The recent history between these URC clubs is quite one-sided. Leinster has emerged victorious in the last ten meetings. The last time Connacht travelled to Dublin was in May 2024. It was a tough day for the Galway side, as they went over an hour without scoring a single point.
The first half was all Leinster, and they scored three tries. The second half was more competitive until a Michael Alaalatoa yellow card. Leinster would score another try with 14 men before Colm Reilly registered a consolation. Jimmy O’Brien wrapped things up for the hosts and it finished 33-7.
However, the two Irish URC teams have already faced off this year. It was a double-header like what both teams are facing this weekend and next. In October Leinster took on Munster and Connacht, winning both games handsomely. Connacht battled Ulster and the league leaders, falling short in both matches.
When Connacht versus Leinster took place on October 19th, it was another poor start from the Galway side, and they lost the first half 5-21. Once again, the second half was better but not enough to avoid a 12-33 defeat. Leinster did more than enough to win that day, and it could have been a harsher scoreline.
Recent form shows an uptick from the Galway side as they handily dispatched Zebre and USAP. However, neither team offers the same competitive edge as Leinster. Connacht must be better defensively to avoid being knocked out of the game as early as the halftime whistle. They conceded first in the match with Zebre and almost blew an 11-point lead against USAP. These mistakes will be punished tenfold against a side like Leinster.
🆕 Jordan Larmour and Thomas Clarkson will require further assessment ahead of Saturday’s clash with Connacht, while Liam Turner has been ruled out after picking up an ankle injury.
📰 Read the full injury report here: https://t.co/2VZ2JNnEJr#NeverLessThanEverything #LEIvCON pic.twitter.com/cTPOgRr8tV
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) December 17, 2024
The current URC leaders looked imperious once again this weekend. The Bristol Bears and Clermont do not represent the toughest challenge in the ERCC, but it was all too easy for the Irish side. Against the Bears, they defended and attacked valiantly even when down to 13 men. When they took on Clermont a week later, they bounced back from an early score and kept the visitors out for the remaining 75 minutes.
If you are considering placing a bet on the URC this weekend, this is a tough match to find value. There is a very small chance that Leinster won’t play as emphatically as we all expect. This means any bet on Connacht is pointless. Instead, players can look for value when determining how big a winning margin will be for the Dublin side. They have better form and better players, and betting against the league leaders is often not a smart idea. The festive period can change things, but this looks like another formality for Leinster.
Leinster Rugby Team News
As we approach the fixture on Saturday, Leo Cullen will issue an update on the injured Leinster players. In the meantime, three players have signed contract extensions. James Ryan, Andrew Porter, and Tadhg Furlong, one of the best Irish rugby players of all time, signed new deals. Ryan’s deal will keep him at Leinster and the Irish National squad until 2028 while Porter and Furlong will stay until 2027.
Connacht Rugby Team News
Bundee Aki also signed a one-year contract extension with Connacht and the IRFU. He will remain in Galway until the summer of 2026. Pete Wilkins has issued an update on the injured players in his squad. Andrew Smith and Seán O’Brien are out for some time, with Smith requiring surgery and O’Brien having an MRI this week. Shayne Bolton is close to a return, while Piers O’Conor and Josh Ioane are back in full training. There was no update on the condition of JJ Hanrahan, Peter Dooley, or Hugh Gavin.