Leinster Rugby vs Emirates Lions Preview
The two remaining unbeaten sides in the URC face off this weekend. Leinster welcomes the Emirates Lions to Dublin for one of the most exciting games of the season. Kick-off will take place on Saturday, October 26 at 5:15 pm.
Leinster Rugby enters this fixture on the back of a five-game winning streak. They have recently silenced any critics with two devastating performances against provincial rivals Munster and Connacht. The Lions already look like this season’s overachievers, having picked up four wins on the bounce. While they beat the likes of Zebre, the Dragons, and Ulster, this will be their toughest test of the season so far.
Leinster Rugby vs Emirates Lions Predictions
Score Prediction: Leinster 42-23 Lions
Even though the top two unbeaten sides in the URC are facing off, there is only one way this fixture is going to go. Our rugby prediction is for Leinster to dismantle the Lions, handing the South African side their first defeat of the season.
If the game took place in Johannesburg, there would be a chance for the Emirates Lions. However, given the Irish side’s form and the quality on the bench, they will come out of this fixture with the maximum number of points. They have been unconvincing at times in this campaign, but wins against Munster and Connacht have quickly silenced any doubters.
Leinster has already amassed an incredible point difference. They are the top scorers in the league with 161 and have only conceded 66. The Lions have played one fewer game but have already conceded more points. To give the visitors some credit, they have the second-best points against statistic out of every team in the URC, behind Leinster.
Looking at some more statistics reveals Leinster is second in the league for points scored and tries scored (25). They have the most offloads at 54 and are third in the league for clean breaks with 40. The Lions have only registered 16 tries but with one game in hand. They have more clean breaks than Leinster with 48 and have beaten 96 defenders so far. On paper, this contest looks far more even than you would expect.
Defensively is where these teams can be split apart. Leinster has 804 tackles with a success rate of 81%. The Emirates Lions have 587 tackles with a tackle success rate of 77%. So far, the Lions have not faced a team as dangerous as Leinster, and there are plenty of points for the Irish side to exploit. There is no doubting the South African’s threat with the ball in hand, but can they handle one of the most dangerous teams in rugby?
Betting on the United Rugby Championship has been difficult for several reasons, but both teams have sailed through so far. However, someone’s unbeaten run is going to end this week and there is no reason to suggest it will be Leinster.
Leinster Rugby vs Emirates Lions Betting Tips
If you have been following this season, betting on rugby matches has been a lot of fun. We have seen shocking results, high-scoring games, and fixtures where there was no way of knowing who was going to come out on top. This game could fall flat as we know who is going to win. The only chance of a good spectacle for the neutral is if the visitors can weather an early storm and start strong.
Match Result
You can back Leinster (1/25) to win this game and receive 40 cents in profit from a €10 bet. That is the most sensible and risk-free approach, but it’s not financially rewarding. That is why we recommend some markets listed below instead.
If, for whatever reason, you think the Lions have a chance in Dublin, you can secure some fantastic returns. Lions (17/2) will return €95 in total from the same size bet. It is not often you can secure almost ten times your stake on the underdog in the URC, but betting on the Lions to win does not seem worthwhile either. A draw is the most rewarding option at 40/1.
Handicap
Guessing the size of Leinster’s victory is the way to maximise your returns this week. The handicap market for Leinster only starts getting rewarding once you get past the first two options. Leinster -18.5 (17/20) will give you €18.50 if the home side wins by 19 points or more. If you think there will be over 25 points between the sides, Leinster -24.5 (9/5) will give you €28 from a ten-euro bet.
You can secure fantastic returns on the Lions if you think it will be a much tighter game than our online sportsbook suggests. Lions +12.5 (19/10) will give you €29 if they can stay within 12 points of the hosts. Our prediction is for a gap of around 19 points at the final whistle, but it could be a lot more if the home side comes out firing. Check the live betting options during the game to see if you can secure better returns.
Winning Margin
Usually, the winning margin market offers good value. This week it has not let us down as Leinster to win by 15 points or more (4/11) offers more value than a wager on the match result. You can bet on Leinster to win by a smaller margin, which comes with larger rewards. Leinster winning by 8 to 14 points is worth 4/5, which will turn your €10 stake into €38.
You can look into the Lions’ winning margin markets, but they are not worth considering this week. Instead, you are better off placing a bet on whether there will be an odd or even number of points scored. Our rugby prediction is for an odd number (22/25). That will yield €18.80, which is reasonable for a 50/50 wager.
Player Props
If you look at the player statistics for the URC this season, no Leinster players are near the top. That is because they spread their good work around the squad, making it difficult to call who will score next. Leo Cullen is spoilt for choice across the entire rugby pitch, so betting ahead of time on his best players could prove costly.
Instead, we like a bet on Rabz Maxwane to continue his incredible start to the season. He has four tries in four games, making him one of the most dangerous players in the URC. Edwill van der Merwe is close behind on three and we fancy his chances of continuing his fine start to the campaign. Quan Horn is up there with the best players in the league for defenders beaten with 18 so far, he could prove to be a man for the visitors. Betting on these players to contribute this week will be risky, but that is where the profit lies.
Leinster Rugby vs Emirates Lions Key Stats and Head-To-Head
These two URC sides have faced off three times since 2022. Leinster hosted the first clash which finished 21-13. The next time these sides faced off was in April 2023, and it was a blockbuster. The Lions welcomed the Irish side to Johannesburg and started strongly with a try after one minute. Unfazed by Leinster, the hosts responded well, and the scores came pouring in. It was 26-14 at halftime and the Lions were in dreamland.
With six tries in the first half, expectations were high for the second. Nick McCarthy went to the sin bin, leaving Leinster short in a crucial area. One mistake led to another as Chris Cosgrave gave away a penalty try four minutes later. With Leinster down two players and the score 36-21, the Emirates Lions could taste victory. However, two late scores and a last-minute penalty robbed the Lions of at least a draw, and it finished 36-39.
The most recent meeting between the clubs came in April 2024. The Lions wanted revenge, and that is exactly what they got when Leinster was in town. At the time, Leinster was the favourite to win the league and the ERCC, but Swys de Bruin executed a hammer blow to Leo Cullen. They decimated the Irish side 44-12, and the wheels fell off the Leinster train. In the end, they struggled for the remaining games of the URC, lost the ERCC final, and failed to reach the grand final after a blistering campaign.
Looking at that game in greater detail reveals the hosts were 22-0 up inside 15 minutes. Leinster was left speechless and did not register a score until 52 minutes played. At that point, the damage was done, and the Lions roared to an incredible win. It is not wise to assume history will repeat itself, especially as this weekend takes place in Dublin. However, that blistering defeat sparked a complete downturn by Leinster, which will be fresh in their minds for this game.
Leinster Rugby Team News
Leo Cullen issued an injury update earlier this week with some good news. Robbie Henshaw is in full training and will be available. Five players are edging closer to a return to the squad, including John McKee, Jordan Larmour, Joe McCarthy, Ciarán Frawley, and Ryan Baird. Unfortunately, Lee Barron picked up an injury against Munster and won’t make the squad. There was no update on Tommy O’Brien, Rónan Kelleher, Jack Conan, Rob Russell, Jimmy O’Brien, Paddy McCarthy, and Dan Sheehan.
Emirates Lions Team News
The Emirates Lions have found a groove this season and will keep the changes to a minimum this week. Edwill Van Der Merwe was rested last week and should return to the starting lineup. Several other players also enjoyed a break, but will head coach Swys de Bruin make multiple changes?
