Leinster Rugby vs Harlequins FC Preview
Leinster and Harlequins begin their Champions Cup knockout stage journey on April 5th at 3:00 pm in a round of 16 clash at Croke Park. The hosts are looking to reach a fourth successive final but have been on the hunt for their first title win since 2018. Harlequins are still vying for their first-ever final after falling short in the semis last season.
Leinster are enjoying an excellent season and already look like a deserving champion. Can the Quins knock them off their perch, or will it be business as usual for Leo Cullen’s side?
Leinster Rugby vs Harlequins FC Predictions
Score Prediction: Leinster 44-22 Harlequins
Leinster winning this game comfortably is one of our rugby predictions for this week. Leo Cullen’s team has been arguably the best in Europe this season, losing just one game in all competitions. The Dubliners look in good standing to head to a fourth-straight Champions Cup final, and they can begin their journey in the knockout stages with a handy win over the Quins. They should dominate proceedings here and get past the English side with little trouble.
Leinster’s game is built on a solid foundation of forward dominance and defensive solidity. Their pack is one of the strongest in Europe, with some of the best Irish rugby players like Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, and Josh van der Flier providing leadership and physicality up front. They have allowed just 194 points in the United Rugby Championship and scored 390. Cullen’s men will suffocate the Quins’ attack and silence them in defence.
The way Leinster defends is what makes them so great. Their focus is often on slowing down the ball at the breakdown, which disrupts the opposition’s attack and allows them to regain possession and turn the game in their favour. They have a solid structure and a high tackle success rate. They are extremely disciplined in defence and rarely concede easy tries. Leinster’s focus is often on slowing down the ball at the breakdown, which disrupts the opposition’s attack and allows them to regain possession and turn the game in their favour.
Harlequins have built their identity around defensive solidity. Only league leaders Bath have allowed fewer points in the Gallagher Premiership this season. However, they have struggled to hold up the other end of the bargain in attack. Only two teams have scored fewer than Tabai Matson’s men. That is what separates these two sides tactically. However strong they may be in defence, Leinster are the better side and will dominate both sides of the ball. Leinster also has far superior depth and boasts one of the best squads in the world.
Ultimately, Leinster’s strength in the forward pack and well-drilled defence should give them the edge in this encounter. They have the experience and consistency to weather any storm that Harlequin FC throw at them. Despite Harlequins’ flair and attacking potential, Leinster’s more balanced and robust approach will probably prove too much for the London side to handle over 80 minutes.
Players To Watch
- Josh van der Flier (Flanker, Leinster): Josh Van der Flier is one of the best openside flankers in the world and will be key to the breakdown battle. His ability to slow the ball down, make turnovers, and tackle effectively will be crucial in limiting Harlequins’ attacking opportunities.
- Marcus Smith (Fly Half, Harlequins): Marcus Smith is undoubtedly one of the most dangerous playmakers in the game. His creativity, vision, and ability to break the line with his pace and footwork will be essential here. The Harlequins need to find a way to unlock Leinster’s solid defence, and Smith can be the key.
Leinster Rugby vs Harlequins FC Tips
- Match Result: Leinster is the overwhelming favourite for this match with our online betting site, worth 1/33. Cullen’s team has lost just one game this season. They enter this match after a win against strong opposition while fielding essentially a second-string team. There is not enough value in the four-time champions here. A bet on Harlequins is worth 9/1 if you think they can cause a huge upset at Croke Park.
- Handicap – Leinster -20.5: The line is 20.5 for anyone betting on the handicap. Leo Cullen’s team has played against stronger teams than the Quins in the Champions Cup and won very comfortably. They dismantled Bath 47-21, a team Harlequin FC recently lost to by 19 points. Leinster are excellent on both sides of the ball and the home advantage will spur their attack. We like a bet on Leinster to cover a 20.5 handicap, worth 10/11.
- Try Scorer – Andrew Osborne: Andrew Osborne is having a breakout season for Leinster. The 21-year-old is their leading try scorer in the URC, getting over the line five times this season. He had a disappointing outing in his last game and comes here with a point to prove. Back the winger to score a try if you are betting on the Rugby Champions Cup.
Leinster Rugby vs Harlequins FC Head-To-Head and Key Stats
These sides have not met in competitive action in over 10 years. They have played each other three times in the Champions Cup, once in 2009 and twice in December 2014. Leinster won the first and most recent clash, with the Quins winning once. The teams also met in a pre-season friendly in September 2022, with Leinster coming out on top in a competitive 26-21 result.
Harlequins FC last played on March 29th, meeting table toppers Bath. The Quins were crushed by the hosts 47-28. Bath were clinical from the outset, racing into a 26-0 lead within 22 minutes. Harlequins allowed four tries to hand Bath a bonus point inside just 20 minutes. They rallied with tries from Luke Northmore and Titi Lamositele to narrow the gap to 33-14 by halftime.
The visitors came out strongly in the second half, with Fin Baxter’s try bringing them to within 12 points at 33-21. However, Bath snuffed out any hopes of a comeback when Max Ojomoh intercepted a loose pass and sprinted the length of the rugby pitch for his side’s sixth try. Francois van Wyk added another score to complete the rout. Sam Riley’s late effort gave Harlequins a consolation bonus point, but Bath cruised to a comprehensive victory. The Quins’ defence showed there is plenty of work to be done on the training ground.
Leinster also played on March 29th in a low-key yet nail-biting affair in South Africa, travelling to face the Sharks. Leo Cullen took a weakened side to Durban, and many fans expected defeat against a strong Sharks team. However, the B-team were excellent in defence, earning a narrow 10-7 victory.
The game was a physical battle, with tries from Henry McErlean and Scott Penny proving enough to secure the win. The Sharks, led by skipper Siya Kolisi, responded with a try from Bongi Mbonambi, followed by a last-gasp penalty. However, the attempt was squandered when they opted for a line-out, as Leinster disrupted and sealed the result with a match-clinching turnover.
Leinster Key Stats
Leinster have all but confirmed their finish on top of the URC. They have lost just one game all season and immediately recovered, ruling out the possibility of a steep decline. Their performances on both sides of the ball have been excellent, and Leo Cullen’s men look like champions already.
- Undefeated in the Champions Cup this season
- Only lost one game in the URC
- Reached the final in all previous three tournaments
- 573 carries in Champions Cup (3rd highest)
- 194 Points Against (Lowest in URC)
- 390 Points Scored (3rd highest in URC)
Harlequins Key Stats
Harlequins FC had a middle-of-the-road season in all competitions. They sit seventh in the Gallagher Premiership with five games remaining and finished fourth in Pool 4 of the Champions Cup with two wins and two losses. An excellent defence has been the backbone of their winning performances. However, a less-than-potent attack has left much to be desired.
- 302 points in the Gallagher Premiership (2nd lowest)
- 314 points scored in the Gallagher Premiership (3rd lowest)
- 1951 tackles in the Gallagher Premiership (2nd highest)
- 100% success in the scrum during the Champions Cup
- 1,980 metres made in the Champions Cup (4th highest)
