Leinster Rugby vs Ospreys Preview
Round 16 of the United Rugby Championship takes place this weekend, and Leinster Rugby will host Ospreys at the RDS Arena in Dublin. Kick-off is at 7.35 pm GMT on Saturday. Leinster will come into the game on a high after reaching the Investec Champions Cup final last weekend. The Irish side saw off Harlequins in a thrilling semi-final, winning 20-17 in front of over 82,000 fans at Croke Park in Dublin. Winger James Lowe was the hero for Leinster, as he scored a hat-trick of tries.
Ospreys didn’t play last weekend, so they’ll be the fresher of the two teams. However, they were on the wrong side of a 61-24 scoreline. The Vodacom Bulls proved too much for the Welsh side to handle in the United Rugby Championship.
Leinster Rugby vs Ospreys Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Just three rounds remain in this season’s United Rugby Championship and plenty of teams are still in the mix for a play-off spot. Leinster sits 2nd in the URC table with 11 wins and four defeats. They’re almost certain to clinch a place in the top eight, and a win on Saturday could see them go top of the table.
Ospreys still have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs. They’re currently in 10th, but a win on Saturday could see them sneak into the top eight. The omens don’t look good though for the Welsh club, who have won just three of their last seven games in all competitions.
Their head-to-head record against Leinster is even more cause for concern. They’ve only beaten the Irish side once in their past seven encounters, and they’ve conceded over 50 points in two of those games. In their previous rugby match against Leinster, they narrowly lost 24-19, so they’ll be hopeful of pushing them close again. Ospreys threw away a 10-point lead in that game. Harry Byrne was the difference for Leinster as he nailed all three of his conversions and kicked a penalty too.
Coming into this weekend’s URC fixture, Leinster are in far better form than their opponents. Although the Irish side has lost their previous two URC matches, they were on an eight-game-winning run before that. Also, as we mentioned earlier, they reached the Investec Champions Cup final last weekend for the third year.
The Ospreys have had a very inconsistent season. As we mentioned, they’ve won just three of their past seven games in all rugby competitions, and their hopes of making the URC playoffs are hanging by a thread. Betting on the Ospreys this weekend would be a waste of money, as Leinster is the far superior team.
Leinster Rugby vs Ospreys Predictions
Correct Score Prediction: Leinster Rugby 45-10 Ospreys
We predict Leinster will get a big win this weekend. The home team will be confident after reaching the Investec Champions Cup final last weekend. They will be determined to back up that win with a big performance this Saturday in front of their home fans.
Ospreys, meanwhile, are in danger of seeing their season fall away with a whimper. After this game, they have two far more winnable games left in the URC. The first is against the Dragons and the second is against Cardiff Blues. Both teams are below the Ospreys on the table, they will fancy their chances.
We predict Leinster will win by over 30 points this weekend. They will score most of the points in the second half, but Leinster will lead at half-time and full-time.
Ospreys is one of the biggest offenders in the URC for yellow cards. The Welsh team have seen nine players sent to the sin bin in this season’s competition. Therefore, consider the card market if you are betting on the United Rugby Championship. With their season on the line, there’s a good chance the away team could lose discipline, and a sin bin looks likely. Also, if they go down to 14 men, Leinster’s chances of piling on points increase.
With Leinster the overwhelming favourites this Saturday, there’s little value in betting on an outright win. Instead, we would suggest the cards and try scorer markets. As we said, we’re expecting a sin bin this weekend. Also, James Lowe is well worth looking at in the try-scoring market. The winger scored three in last weekend’s win over Northampton Saints and will be full of confidence. Betting on him to score the first try will get you the biggest return. However, you’ll still be able to make a good return if you bet on him to score anytime.
Also, if you fancy something a little risky, then make a note. Ospreys are the only team to have kicked two drop goals in this season’s URC. It may be a long shot, but if they can keep things tight, then expect them to have a pop at the sticks if they get the chance. For the record, Owen Williams and Dan Edwards are the players who have kicked drop goals for them this season.
Leinster Rugby vs Ospreys Betting Tips
If you are betting, there’s no point in betting on Leinster to win. They’re priced at 1/25 to win, so for every €25 you stake, you’ll make just €1 profit. Consider the handicap market instead of the chance of making the best returns. Our sports betting site prices Leinster at 17/20 with a -19.5 handicap this weekend. A €10 bet on that outcome will see you almost double your money to €18.50.
For an outside bet, betting on the Ospreys to win is worth 9/1. We’d say avoid that though, as it’s unlikely. Instead, if you can see the away team threatening, the Ospreys with a +19.5 handicap is 5/6. That looks far greater value, and you’ll almost double your money. If you are going for an outside bet, our welcome offer could come in handy. If it comes in, you’ll make a glorious return, but if it doesn’t, you’ll restrict your losses somewhat.
One possible outside bet is for a draw at half-time and Ospreys to win in the second half. Leinster could take their foot off the gas this Saturday after reaching the Investec Champions Cup final last weekend. They also have one foot in the URC playoffs, they could underestimate the Ospreys. Don’t forget, the Ospreys have kicked two drop goals this season, so if this is a close contest, that could be a factor. The odds on a draw/Ospreys half-time/full-time result are 50/1. As we said, it is a long shot, and we’d probably steer clear.
Look at the try scorer markets for the best chance of high returns. We’re backing James Lowe to score first. As we mentioned earlier, the Leinster winger crossed three times last week, so he’ll be backing himself this week. If that seems a little risky, then bet on him to score any time. The returns will be lower, but we expect plenty of points in this game. Given his last outing, he should be among the try scorers.
With very little value in the outright markets, it’s worth considering in-play betting. You can get a feel for the match as it unfolds and respond accordingly. We particularly like the look of the next scoring play market. A penalty goal is always a good chance when you’re betting on rugby, and Jack Walsh will fancy his chances of knocking one over for Ospreys. Especially if this is a tight game, expect Walsh to kick the three points whenever he can.
🔙 to the RDS this Saturday. 🙌
Back on the training pitch getting set for our URC battle against Ospreys. 🔥
🎟️ | Get your tickets here: https://t.co/PTh0C2rUkV#LEIvOSP #FromTheGroundUp pic.twitter.com/LvTmmXBX42
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) May 6, 2024
Leinster Rugby Team News & Lineups
The big news for Leinster is the likely return of Garry Ringrose this weekend. The centre has only played once since January because of a shoulder injury. However, he came close to making the squad for last weekend’s win over Northampton. Although he missed out, he’s ready to go this time around.
Lock James Ryan remains on the injury list. Full-back Hugo Keenan is also another week away, at least with a hip injury. Ciaran Frawley and Joe McCarthy both suffered knocks last weekend, but have trained as normal this week.
Jimmy O’Brien made it through the Northampton game unscathed after returning from a neck injury. Tommy O’Brien is also back in full training after a hamstring injury. This weekend’s game may be a week too soon for him.
Ospreys Team News & Lineups
Adam Beard is the only new injury doubt for the Ospreys. The lock forward suffered a knock in the defeat to the Vodacom Bulls in their last game. He’s expected to be fine for this weekend. Dewi Lake made his comeback from the bench in that match and came through unscathed. Scott Baldwin and Jac Morgan remain long-term absentees. Neither will make a return in this campaign.
