Leinster Rugby vs Scarlets Rugby Preview
This week in the United Rugby Championship, second in the division hosts third from the bottom. Leinster Rugby vs Scarlets takes place on Saturday, November 18 at 7:35 PM. The team from Dublin is hoping to continue their fine run of form this season after comfortably dispatching the Dragons. The Scarlets have only one win this season after letting a lead slip late into the game against the Lions.
The match is being held at the iconic RDS Arena in Dublin. The multi-purpose stadium opened in 1868 and has a capacity of 18,500 fans. Both teams will want to avoid defeat this week to stabilize their campaigns. Leinster is level with the Bulls at the top of the table, and trail on point difference. The Scarlets, however, have the worst point difference in the entire league. If they cannot get something out of this game, the gap to get out of the bottom three could stretch to over three points.
It is still early in the season, and there is no need for either side to panic. Leinster has improved drastically after their shock defeat to the Glasgow Warriors in the opening game of the season. Since then, the side has been unbeaten and has a string of positive performances to give them confidence. However, the Scarlets will be licking their wounds after the narrow defeat at home to the Lions. Anything can happen on game day, but this contest is looking one-sided.
Leinster Rugby vs Scarlets Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Since the late 90s, Leinster has faced the Scarlets 46 times. In those games, Leinster has won 30 both home and away, whereas the Scarlets only have 14 victories. In this fixture, there have been two draws with the most recent tie occurring in the United Rugby Championship in 2018. The sides last met on October 28, 2022, and the Scarlets were annihilated at home. That game saw three yellow cards to the Turks in a game with four dished out in total. The score finished 5-35 in what we can only describe as a one-sided game of rugby.
In the past three matches between these clubs, Leinster has been runaway winners. Besides the 5-35 game, Leinster has won 50-15 in their last home meeting and 25-52 when on the road. In both matches, there was at least one yellow card, meaning there have been seven yellow cards in three meetings. While there is no way of knowing if history will repeat itself, it seems a sin bin in this fixture is always on the cards.
Looking at the last seven times these two sides faced off, the home side has been victorious on five occasions. The only team to lose when at home is the Scarlets, who take on Leinster away this weekend. You need to go as far back as 2017 to find an away game at Leinster where the Scarlets won. Could history repeat itself and the Scarlets perform a major upset this season?
The joy of rugby betting is that anything can happen once the referee blows his whistle to start the game. Looking at how the sides have got on this season, there seems to be a clear favourite. Leinster lost their opening game of the season 43-25 in another yellow card-filled game against Glasgow. Since then, they have dispatched bottom and second-bottom in the table. Plus, they earned a 36-27 victory when Edinburgh came to town. While they are unbeaten in three games, everyone expected Leinster to win at home against Glasgow. That defeat was a shock to many fans who have been delighted with the performances since then.
The Scarlets have not started the season strongly, losing heavily in their first two games against the Bulls and Stormers. They picked up their first win of the season after dispatching their local rivals Cardiff, 31-25. However, in the game last week against the Lions, back-to-back victories were on the cards. The Scarlets led 23-14 with less than ten minutes on the clock before disaster struck. A penalty in the 74th minute was the beginning of a comeback that saw the Lions win by one point. That win was the Lions’ first of the season, and a bruising home defeat to a side low on confidence.
Both teams will expect to field more World Cup players this week after the break, with many given extra time to return to full fitness. While betting on Leinster to win and continue the push at the top seems like the safest bet, there are many other betting options to consider.
Leinster Rugby vs Scarlets Rugby Predictions
Looking at the sports betting odds at Novibet, Leinster are the favourites by a country mile. Betting on the home side to win has odds of 1/100, which in plain English means you are winning nothing. A €10 wager on Leinster will return €10.10 if they win the match within 80 minutes. The Scarlets have significantly higher-paying odds, showing how much of an underdog the Welsh side is. At 12/1, you stand to win €130 from a ten-euro wager. A draw is by far the least likely outcome, with the bookie offering 50/1 on a tie at full-time.
Using your welcome bonus at Novibet is a risky move on this fixture. If you bet on the favourites, you will waste your promotion on poor returns. But, if you bet on the underdog, you are saying goodbye to whatever your stake, as there does not seem much of a chance for an upset. If you still want to bet on full-time results, investigate handicap betting. The Asian handicap seeks to level the playing field between two uneven sides by assigning a point difference. For Leinster to win the Asian line wager, they need to beat the Scarlets by 26 points or more. For the Scarlets to make a winning bet, they need to win the game by any margin or lose within 26 points.
Handicap betting is a great way to turn betting odds back in your favour. If you look at the odds for Leinster to win by any margin, that is worth 1/100. However, Leinster to beat the Scarlets by 25.5 points is 5/6. A €10 bet on the home side would return €18.33, almost double your stake. Considering in previous matches Leinster has won by huge margins, the handicap bet is a much better option in this fixture.
We think Leinster will win on the day and do so comfortably. The head coach, Leon Cullen, has already confirmed more players from the Ireland World Cup squad will be available for the clash on Saturday. That is great news for Leinster fans who would be concerned about a few injuries picked up in the last game against the Dragons. Historically speaking, the Scarlets struggle to score points when visiting Leinster. This record of poor scoring has already troubled the side in away games this season. In the first two games, the Turks scored 28 points and conceded 115.
| Team | P | W | D | L | Diff | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +66 | 15 |
| Leinster | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +35 | 15 |
| Glasgow | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +29 | 15 |
| Ulster | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +16 | 14 |
| Connacht | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +15 | 14 |
| Benetton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 14 |
| Munster | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +37 | 13 |
| Edinburgh | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| Stormers | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +33 | 11 |
| Ospreys | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| Zebre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -30 | 9 |
| Lions | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| Cardiff | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| Scarlets | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -82 | 6 |
| Dragons | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -66 | 2 |
| Sharks | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -50 | 1 |
Many have already written off the boys from Wales before a kick has even taken place. While we can’t see the result going any other way than to the home side, there is always something unexpected when betting on a United Rugby Championship game. The Dragons saw red when they hosted Leinster last week. Could a red card decide this game?
Leinster Rugby vs Scarlets Rugby Betting Tips
Making straightforward online bets on this fixture will not yield great returns unless you are banking on an upset. If you are determined to bet on Leinster to win, you will need to look for other wagers to find favourable returns. One example we have already given is the Asian handicap. The only downside to this wager is that if the game is a close contest, and you bet on the favourites, then you have no chance of winning. For a handicap bet on Leinster to work, you need them to run away with it and win by over 26 points.
Another market that many overlook is the halftime result. Betting on the favourites to lead at half-time has better returns than just wagering on Leinster to win the game. The odds for Leinster to win is 1/100, but for them to lead by 15 or more points at halftime it is 13/10. You can also bet on which half will have more points scored and whether the total number of points scored will be odd or even at the end of the match. There are dozens of markets at Novibet that do not require a full-time result to payout, and these bets usually have better odds than the outright winner.
Another way to approach this fixture from a betting point of view is to wait until the game starts. If the Scarlets get off to a bright start and score early, the returns of Leinster winning will improve. However, waiting to place a live bet on the day is risky, as Leinster could take the early lead instead. With live betting, you can always wait and see how the game goes before placing a bet, which should help you reduce your losses.
Betting on Rugby Union games is never straightforward, even in fixtures that appear as one-sided as this. Looking at previous matches, both sides have a record of ill-discipline when facing off. There have been seven yellow cards in the past three matches between these clubs, meaning a bet on the sin bin is a wise move in this match. The yellow and red card came out during Leinster’s last match against the Dragons. Perhaps the team from Dublin knows a way to get under the opposition’s skin?
Remember, if you like the sound of a handicap bet, you can change the size to suit your needs. You can increase the winning margin required by Leinster to get much greater returns. Other betting options include choosing how many points you think the home side will score in the 80 minutes. The odds of Leinster to win by 15 or more points is 2/13. A €10 wager will only return €11.54, but it’s a better-paying wager compared to the match result.
Leinster Rugby Lineup
Manager Leo Cullen confirmed more World Cup players will be available this week. However, there is rarely good news in rugby without some bad. Tommy O’Brien and Cormac Foley picked up injured in last weekend’s game against the Dragons. They will face assessment, but it seems unlikely either will make an appearance in the next match. Other players confirmed not fit for the game include Luke McGrath, Cian Healy, Ed Byrne, and Alex Soroka. John McKee and Michael Milne are recovering from their injuries and could feature against the Scarlets.
- Leinster Predicted Lineup: J. Boyle, D. Sheehan, M. Ala’alatoa, R. Molony, J. Howell Jenkins, R. Baird, W. Connors, J. Culhane, B. Murphy, R. Byrne, J. O’Brien, C. Ngatai, J. Osborne, J. Larmour, and C. Frawley.
- Leinster Injured List: T. O’Brien, C. Foley, L. McGrath, C. Healy, E. Byrne, A. Soroka.
Scarlets Rugby Lineup
Head coach Dwayne Peel must recover from a bitterly disappointing defeat last weekend. He will have to pick his team up after a series of fundamental errors cost them a vital win against the Lions. Peel confirmed Taine Plumtree was battling a shoulder injury but played in the game last week. Players who will not be available for next week’s clash include Sam Lousi, Don Davis, Josh Macleod, Jack Price, and Sam Costello.
- Scarlets Predicted Lineup: K. Mathias, R. Elias, H. O’Connor, A. Craig, V. Fifita, T. Plumtree, T. Leatherbarrow, C. Tuipulotu, G. Davies, L. Lloyd, S. Evans, E. James, J. Roberts, T. Rogers, and J. McNicholl.
- Scarlets Injured List: S. Lousi, D. Davis, J. Macleod, J. Price, S. Costello.
