Leinster Rugby vs Toulouse Preview
The biggest event on the club rugby calendar is finally upon us. Leinster will play Toulouse in the European Rugby Champions Cup Final. The game will take place at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday, 25th May at 2.45 pm.
It’s a massive game as both sides have the chance to become champions of Europe. These teams know each other well and have an incredible pedigree in the competition. Toulouse has a record five wins overall. Meanwhile, Leinster is desperate to equal this and earn their fifth star.
This is a huge clash between two brilliant teams. Leinster enters this game as slight favourites, but that won’t faze Stade Toulousain, who always turns up on monumental occasions.
Leinster Rugby vs Toulouse Key Stats and Head-to-Head
Toulouse and Leinster know each other very well. The two teams have played 14 times, with the Irish province winning on eight. They’ve also won nine Champions Cup titles since 1995 as they’ve dominated the tournament.
Leinster has won four of their past five meetings with Stade Toulousain stretching back to 2011. Their most recent victory over the French giants was in 2022. Leo Cullen’s men defeated them 41-22 at the Aviva Stadium in the semi-finals.
This was a tremendous display by the Irish team. Leinster’s efficiency and clinical game plan paid dividends. Ross Byrne scored 16 points from his boot as he filled in for Jonny Sexton. Meanwhile, Leinster exploited Toulouse’s indiscipline. Referee Wayne Barnes sin-binned Thomas Ramos and Rodrigue Neti at key moments in the game.
The Irish team scored multiple tries when they had a one-man advantage. Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, and Jason Jenkins crossed the line. However, this wasn’t a walkover. Toulouse dominated and scored tries of their own through Pita Ahki and Jack Willis. But Leinster absorbed pressure and rode their luck to beat their rivals.
Their previous game saw Leinster win by an even bigger margin in Dublin. This time they emerged victorious by a 40-17 scoreline in another semifinal. Jonny Sexton and Byrne shared the load at fly-half while three Leinster players scored tries. James Lowe stole the show with his brace.
Ross Byrne is one of the biggest stories of this rugby game because he’s now Leinster’s first-choice fly-half. Leinster will need him to be at his clinical best if they hope to win their first Champions Cup since 2018. His opposite number Thomas Ramos has also had an excellent season with 63 points for the French team.
Ramos is one of the best kickers in the world now and is a level above Byrne. Romain Ntamack’s return in recent weeks also gives Les Rouge et Noir more elite options. Toulouse has more spectacular players than Leinster. However, the Irish team’s system is brilliant at nullifying individuals.
Recent form is a concern ahead of this final. Leinster has lost three of their past five games. Their last loss was a wasteful 23-21 interprovincial derby game against Ulster. John Cooney was the hero against an under-strength Leinster team. However, it was a demoralising defeat for Leo Cullen’s team because they made poor decisions.
Stade Toulousain is flying high in the Top 14 and is riding a four-game win streak. Their most recent win saw them beat Montpellier 22-29. They also convincingly defeated British giant Harlequins in the semi-final to earn their spot in this showpiece event.
Leinster had a tight 20-17 win over Northampton in their semi-final. However, it’s arguably more important that they already beat La Rochelle. Ronan O’Gara’s team broke the Irish team’s hearts in back-to-back finals. They’ll hope to have better luck in Toulouse.
Leinster Rugby vs Toulouse Predictions
Correct Score Prediction: Leinster 30 – 25 Toulouse
Leinster will have enough to beat Toulouse in the European Rugby Champions Cup Final. However, betting on Leinster is risky because their recent form is patchy. They have the quality and experience to win this game.
Jamison Gibson-Park will have a massive influence. He is one of the best scrum-halves in rugby today. No player has more passes than Gibson-Park, who has 493 in Europe’s preeminent rugby competition. He also has almost half of Leinster’s 1,088 passes. The Irish province has more than any other team in the competition, including 195 more than Toulouse. We predict Leinster’s slick passing will be decisive in achieving victory. It’s something to consider when betting on the European Rugby Champions Cup final.
These teams play unique brands of rugby. Stade Toulousain has a more physical style with Antoine Dupont at the centre of everything. Dupont is one of the best players on the planet. He has the most carries in the tournament with 110 and the most offloads with 20. Dupont is also a man for the big occasion, with two tries against Harlequins.
Leinster’s depth is one of the key reasons they are favourites. Josh Van De Flier was a certain starter before this season. Now Will Connors is a genuine contender as a starting flanker. The return of James Ryan and Hugo Keenan will also add to the four-time champion’s options.
Live betting is a great option for this game. Toulouse are slight underdogs, but they can beat Leinster. Check out the half-time markets if Stade Toulousain takes a slight lead into the break. It may be worth betting on Leinster to make another historic comeback.
Leinster Rugby vs Toulouse Betting Tips
Leinster are 3/4 favourites for winning this game on our sports betting site. This means a successful €10 stake would yield €7.50 in profit. Toulouse is an 11/10 underdog, so the same stake would make an €11 profit.
Betting on rugby is fun because there are so many scores. A €10 bet on more points in the first half could win €8. Meanwhile, it’s 1/1 for the teams to score more in the second half with potential returns of €20.
The winning margin is one of the most interesting markets. Either team will probably win this final by 1 to 7 points. Leinster is available on 13/5 while it’s 14/5 for Toulouse to achieve the same feat. It’s always exciting to bet on the game’s scorers. James Lowe is always dangerous for Leinster. There are odds of 9/2 for the Leinster wing to score two or more tries. He’s also the most likely first try-scorer at 7/1.
If you fancy backing a more obscure try-scorer, consider the returning Hugo Keenan. He is quietly effective for Leinster with 65 points in 63 games. Our betting site has him at 3/1 to score at any time in this final. Stade Toulousain brings a dangerous threat. They’re the highest scorers in the Top 14 with 85 tries and 628 points this season. Matthis Lebel is their most likely try-scorer at 11/10 to score anytime.
Antoine Dupont and Jamison Gibson-Park could be the game’s most influential players. The French superstar is available at 15/8 if you think he’ll score a try. This means that a €10 bet could win €18.75. It’s 9/4 for Leinster’s scrum-half to score with the same stake, potentially making €22.50.
Indiscipline cost Toulouse dearly in their last meeting with Leinster. It may be worth betting on the number of yellow cards. The French giants can ill-afford the same antics on the biggest stage of them all. Don’t forget to take advantage of our welcome bonus. This is available for all new users on the betting website. Sign up now and use it across a range of markets and sports.
𝐂'𝐄𝐒𝐓 𝐋𝐀 𝐒𝐄𝐌𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐄 𝐃𝐄 𝐋’ 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐄𝐂 𝐂𝐇𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐈𝐎𝐍𝐒 𝐂𝐔𝐏 ! 🏆@LeinsterRugby 🆚 @StadeToulousain
Une finale monumentale, deux équipes de Légende et des milliers de supporters passionnés 🤩
En route ! 🔥 #InvestecChampionsCup pic.twitter.com/5XFmFWbJVW
— Investec Champions Cup France (@ChampionsCup_FR) May 20, 2024
Leinster Rugby Team News and Predicted Line-Up
Leo Cullen has some selection quandaries ahead of this Champions Cup Final. Garry Ringrose remains a major injury doubt. Meanwhile, Charlie Ngatai and Tommy O’Brien suffered injuries in their defeat to Ulster. Leinster’s medical staff will assess them ahead of this game.
The Irish province may opt for a bold 6-2 split after the return of James Ryan, Hugo Keenan, and Will Connor. They’ll likely play a similar line-up to the victory over La Rochelle.
- Leinster Predicted Line-Up: Ciaran Frawley, Jordan Larmour, Robbie Henshaw, Jamie Osborne, James Lowe, Ross Byrne, Jamison Gibson-Park, Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Jason Jenkins, Ryan Baird, Josh van der Flier, and Caelan Doris.
Toulouse Team News and Predicted Line-Up
Toulouse could play the same team that defeated Saracens in the semifinal. Nepo Laulala remains their biggest absentee after his Achilles injury. Santiago Chocobares is available after he served a suspension. Coach Ugo Mola has some huge decisions in the biggest game of his career.
- Stade Toulousain Predicted Line-Up: Blair Kinghorn, Juan Cruz Mallia, Paul Costes, Pita Ahki, Matthis Lebel, Romain Ntamack, Antoine Dupont, Cyril Baille, Peato Mauvaka, Dorian Aldegheri, Thibaud Flament, Emmanuel Meafou, François Cros, Jack Willis, and Alexandre Roumat.
